Outlook looks mostly mild for the next two weeks but this surrounds a potentially interesting snow situation this upcoming Fri/Sat

March at Mad River Glen has begun just as it should, with deep snow and cold weather. Hope everyone got a chance to make a few good turns over the weekend. Following a chilly Sunday night, it will begin to feel like March with moderating temperatures and a bit of mud on those dirt roads. The push of milder temperatures Monday will be accompanied by clouds and perhaps even a little light rain. Any precipitation should be fairly inconsequential however with the bigger story being the above freezing temperatures of 35-40 degrees.

For the most part, those above freezing temperatures are expected to continue through Thursday. We are worried about some precipitation but it should hold off through much of the ski day Tuesday, a day that should again feature clouds and temperatures hovering in the high 30's or low 40's. Dewpoints temperatures are expected to climb to around 30 on Tuesday which might help initiate some corn snow. The precipitation is expected to arrive Tuesday night thanks to a suddenly active southern branch of the jet stream. Temperatures will not be as excessive as I had feared about a week go but they will still be mild enough for a mostly rain event Tuesday evening and night across the low lying areas. Above 2500 or 3000 feet, some mixed precipitation or even a period of all snow is possible. Any accumulation will be very, very gloppy but it certainly preferred over rain. This precipitation should end early Wednesday and we will be left with a mostly cloudy day with near freezing temps across the highest elevations and near 40 degree temperatures in the valley.

The end of the week looks a lot more interesting over past few cycles of model data. I put a one sentence blurb about the possibility for snow Friday but that hardly does justice to the situation as it stands right now. Thursday appears pretty tranquil in Vermont and it might be the best chance to see some sunshine this week which would accompany seasonable temperatures. Meanwhile, a strong southern branch feature will be pushing toward the southeast coast and bringing heavy rain in its path. This storm is not expected to phase with a Canadian clipper system initially. That system will approach Thursday night and Friday and bring some cloud cover and eventually some light snow as the day progresses on Friday. The bigger question however relates to whether this storm can pull a 9th inning phase and suck some of the departed southern branch energy back toward the coast late Friday or early Saturday. Model data from both the European and Canadian suggests this to be the case but one has to be skeptical. This is not an impossible outcome but nonetheless an atypical one. If it does happen, we can expect some substantial snowfall followed by windy and cold weather Saturday. If it doesn't happen, we should see some light snowfall late Friday followed by blustery and cold weather Saturday.

Temperatures will moderate a bit by Sunday afternoon and there continue to be strong indications that this will be start of a period where a large ridge in the jet stream will establish itself over the east coast. This has been indicated for sometime and given the time of the year, we should expect a serious round of spring weather starting March 9th. It doesn't look like March 2012 but it does appear likely that temps can reach 50 degrees multiple times between 3/9 and 3/15.