Wintry temps for the weekend and not a lot of excitement for early March though it doesn't appear as mild or rainy from 3/3-3/5

We mostly missed out on all the lake effect snow Friday. The "superband" that was speculated to perhaps impact the MRV impacted the very northern part of the state only. We made up for the miss however with a beautiful over-performance on Thursday. Rain changed to snow about as fast as we could possibly hope for and the snow continued well into the afternoon and evening which was well beyond my expectations for when it might abate. Certainly a terrific way to finish a relatively good month in northern Vermont and a very good month when one considers the bad pattern fundamentals we were up against. These bad pattern fundamentals resulted in only a trace of snow being recorded in the major cities of Philadelphia and New York during the month of February and only half inch in Boston.

Winter-like temperatures will be with us through the weekend as advertised but the region has to face the music from more bad pattern fundamentals by the middle of the upcoming week. Clouds and a few snow flurries will continue Saturday and winds will stay persistently strong though slightly weaker than what we saw Friday. Temperatures on the mountain Saturday are likely to be confined to the teens. We can expect a bit more sun for Sunday with temperatures near 20 during the afternoon. The winds will again subside a bit but won't subside all together. Dress warm if you're heading out this weekend.

Temperatures are expected to warm back toward the freezing mark by Monday and will be above the freezing mark for a good part of the middle of the week. The latest model data suggests that mid-week temperatures, though mild, won't reach excessive levels and we even have a chance at avoiding much of the wet weather. The idea of rain is very predicated on a potent southern branch feature and whether it evolves into a highly amplified east coast storm or simply passes innocently well to our south. The trend over the past couple cycles of data is that this storm and much of the associated rain will pass to our south. Temperatures would thus spend some time above freezing in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame but might stay below 40 across the high elevations.

A push of colder temperatures will arrive in time for the first full weekend in March and this might be accompanied by some snow. The colder, mostly sub-freezing temperatures stretch will persist through the weekend but ensembles have been persistently building a large ridge along the east coast. It wasn't a pattern that was going to deliver us any sustained cold anyway and then we will have the added impact of a negative PNA which will focus the unsettled weather on the west. It could lead to a few days of corn-horn skiing in the March 9th to March 14th time frame though its certainly too early to say for sure.