Change back to snow and to winter comes Sunday with storm potential on Jan 6-7

As of late December, La Nina has strengthened slightly and is currently edging out last year's version by a tenth of a degree C. Measured in terms of weather pattern behavior however, this year's version appears more amplified and has had a very negative impact on winter weather on the east coast, especially from the Mid-Atlantic states southward. The southern Appalachians might as well be a tropical destination this past month as temperatures have hardly been sub-freezing and dewpoints have recently soared to near 60-degrees with accompanying heavy rain and thunderstorms. La Nina has always been a mixed bag in Vermont. Though we typically perform way better than the areas mentioned above, we have also experienced a few clunkers such as 1988-89 and 2011-2012. Though we appear to be heading toward another "clunker", the weather pattern does appear favorable for a half way decent stretch of winter in Vermont through about the first half of January. This is a critical stretch for us since we have some jet stream blocking in the Arctic and have managed to tame the Pacific jet stream for a time. I certainly don't expect these conditions to persist indefinitely this year and we thus need to make something happen and soon. 

Not much good will come from our New Year's weekend weather situation but there are worse results than this one. Most of the wet weather from multiple waves of low pressure will pass to our south and New Year's Day will feature just some spotty light rain or drizzle with temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark across much of the northern Vermont high country. A push of colder temperatures will reach the MRV early Sunday as another in a series of low pressure waves passes to our south. Light rain will become freezing rain and sleet for a time and eventually turn to snow sometime during the ski day. 1-3 inches is likely from all this but there continues to be the risk we get screwed entirely. 

Portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and SE Mass, which have seen little to no winter so far, might receive a bit of snowfall fall from a rapidly strengthening low pressure center off the coast. This is a big whiff for Vermont, but big offshore storms are the best way to get the sun out and visibility improved in Vermont during the winter months and we should see a healthy dose of sunshine to go along with chilly 15-20 degree temperatures. Sunshine will be back for part of Tuesday and will help to warm readings back into the 20's before warm advection clouds advance back into the region. The window for milder potentially above-freezing temperatures appears short and confined mostly to valley locations on Wednesday. Even better is the potential for a big winter storm late Thursday Jan 6th into Friday the 7th. It's a delicate situation involving arctic air spilling south and a rapidly amplifying jet stream. There's also some lingering mild air along the immediate coastline as another potential monkey wrench. Still, the ensembles are showing a nice consensus for a decent event and interior New England appears to be the best location for results. Operational models have and will continue to be noisy for the next few days but more clarity should arrive within a few days. It's the best chance we've had all winter for a decent storm but it remains a "chance" for now and not yet likely. 

Whatever happens Thursday into Friday, the storm and the associated polar jet amplification sets the stage for a cold and mostly dry weekend with readings falling to near zero Friday and struggling to reach 10 on the mountain Saturday January 8th. Reading should moderate somewhat by Sunday the 9th. 

The marginally favorable pattern described in the first paragraph appears somewhat encouraging for Vermont but does not appear capable of sustaining arctic cold in the Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic states. We can put a positive spin on this situation by suggesting that an overwhelmingly cold pattern is often not a particularly snowy one in Vermont in January. The widespread area of cold across eastern North America is expected to quickly give way to normal and even above normal temperatures in some areas to our south. Meanwhile the center of the polar vortex will reposition itself in eastern Canada, keeping much of New England and especially Vermont within Vermont's reach. We should thus see a reinforcing shot of winter chill around January 10th and 11th with additional chances at least lighter snowfall throughout that 2nd full week of January. 

Weekend weather is mostly wet with only a chance it ends as snow late Sunday but early January pattern appears decent overall

The weather we have seen during this back half of December 2021 can be described as La Nina to the extreme. Cold, unsettled weather over parts of the west coast with snow in the mountains, extremely mild weather along the Gulf Coast and southeast U.S. and lots of cloudiness and marginal precipitation events in the northeast. Though we may have successfully retained a little sense of winter in northern Vermont, it hasn't been much of a consolation prize especially considering recent underperformance and another wet weather event on a holiday weekend. This is classic La Nina however and if we can just move the battle lines 100-200 miles to the south, our performance would improve dramatically. 

Much of the southeast is finishing the warmest December on record and the ridge responsible for much of this weather continues to push weak, disorganized surface features in our general direction. These have been difficult to predict and have been under-delivering as I mentioned above.  Some occasional light snow is still expected both Thursday and Thursday night but accumulations appear insignificant. Meanwhile the weekend weather event will begin to take shape as a stretched area of low pressure along the already established southwest to northeast temperature boundary. The first area of low pressure will approach New Years Eve and we will thus see another day of cloudiness and some light afternoon/evening snow eventually giving way to some freezing rain or drizzle by early New Years Day. This initial wave is weaker but is nonetheless critical since it will ultimately track well into Quebec and allow milder air to infiltrate the critical levels of our lower troposphere ahead of the primary weather producing storm. 

I had hoped that some low level cold could make a push southward on New Years Day keeping sleet and snow in our equation for the weekend. We've gotten some good news as the track of this stronger area of low pressure appears farther south, perhaps tracking right through the heart of central New England but the cold ingredients are behind the system making snow a difficult ask. Temperatures on New Years Day are likely to hang out near or just above the freezing mark though it does look like we will keep much of the ski day dry though it will stay very overcast. Rain and a few pockets of freezing rain are likely to arrive during the evening New Years Day (Saturday) and continue into the overnight. Perhaps we can keep the rain on the lighter side and minimize the amount of total wet weather but whatever falls Saturday night is not likely to be good. All might not be lost with this storm however. Energy with this storm is eventually expected to consolidate around the trailing area of low pressure and if that passes to our southeast, another area of precipitation later Sunday into Sunday night might still start wet but finish as a period of decent snowfall before Monday morning. We need another few rounds of model data to sort through some of those details. 

We do know that the first full work day of 2022 (Monday, Jan 3) will feature wintry temperatures with readings generally holding in the teens during the day and falling into the single numbers during the overnight. Flurries and snow showers are likely during the day Monday but we should also see some intervals of sunshine and we haven't seen much of that this week and don't expect any this weekend. More sunshine and even better visibility is then expected to Tuesday accompanying some very typical January chill. The cold weather is likely to continue into Wednesday before temperatures moderate ahead of another system likely to advance into the Great Lakes. The late in the week period between January 6th-7th again appears marginal with milder air attempting to push northward into New England. We could get a better result ahead of the Jan 8-9 weekend but could also see another mixed bag of weather. 

On the state of the weather pattern more generally, there are some aspects you have to like. The jet stream in the Pacific through much of early January appears relatively loose and combine that with the blocking structure in the Chukchi Sea region of the arctic and cold air will assuredly push southward and impact much of the United States, especially the northern half of the country. Along the east coast, it's just a question of warding off the negative effects of the pesky Nina southeast ridge. I would expect at least some snow to accompany the inbound arctic air around the weekend of January 8-9 (perhaps as early as January 7) and this will be followed by several days of below normal temperatures. Interestingly, ensembles indicate that the southward moving polar vortex will bounce (for lack of a better word) off the southeast ridge and eventually land in eastern Canada. This would place Vermont in a pretty good spot for winter weather in the middle part of January but the wait has been long and agitation is understandably high (I know it is for me). 

Clouds, light snow and some mixed precipitation dominate the outlook for the rest of this week while a bigger storm brings snow potential for the New Years weekend

I endured my first significant bust of the season with a Christmas Storm that featured way more ice and way too little snow relative to my outlook and more importantly to our collective approval. This weather pattern is not providing any time to wallow in forecast sorrows as a very active weather is expected over the next week. The jet stream ridge in the southeastern U.S. is proving durable, even when faced with increased amounts of polar energy and we thus have a situation where we will be in the path of many weather systems. We will undoubtedly get some snow in this setup but also be faced with more marginal situations comprised of mid-level mild intrusions leading to more sleet and ice. 

We have enough cold air in place Monday night to support a period of light snow and 1-3 inches, mostly in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. Clouds and some of that light snow will continue into early Tuesday but I expect visibility to improve some as the day progresses and as winds shift to a more westerly direction and a weakened area of high pressure builds in from the north. Fair weather breaks will be very short-lived in this regime and especially this week and any clearing late Tuesday will be followed by increasing clouds early Wednesday in advance of a weak area of low pressure approaching from the west. We can expect mostly clouds, sub-freezing temperatures and calm winds Wednesday with precipitation holding off until Wednesday night. Another marginal precipitation situation awaits us Wednesday night into Thursday when, if we were to see heavy enough precipitation, we could see a decent period of snow. At least right now, precipitation is indicated to be fairly light however opening the door for another "mixed precipitation" situation. Temperature profiles do appear a little colder than they did over Christmas but as I mentioned, precipitation appears lighter and I would guess that we see a little bit of everything between late Wednesday night and early Thursday amounting to 1 or 2 inches of an icy conglomerate. 

The most significant east coast weather system we have seen in a while is now expected to impact the region New Years Day and into January 2nd (which makes up the entirety of New Years weekend).  Though we are still awaiting to unravel some critical details, there could be multiple areas of low pressure involved and a variety of precipitation types though I am increasingly confident we can keep it all frozen in our part of Vermont. A modified area of arctic cold is expected to fight its way into interior New England on New Years eve following Thursday's precipitation and provide us with decent enough area of low level cold to support a solid front-end thump of snow on New Years Day. Much will hinge on critical details as I mentioned and although an epic 1-2 footer is unlikely with this event based on the current projected storm track, 6-12 powdery inches takes up some decent space in the possibility spectrum. This would be followed by the potential for some mixed precipitation Saturday night (still Jan 1) and into Sunday followed by the potential for some additional snow late Sunday into early Monday. The strongest area of cold this season should then makes its way into New England for January 3rd and keep us very chilly though at least the 5th. 

As I mentioned a few days ago, the emergence of the Chukchi Sea block on all of the ensemble simulations is one of the more noteworthy jet stream features on the early January 2022 weather map. It is almost a certainty that intense arctic air will plunge southward in North America but the Chukchi Sea is pretty good distance from eastern North America even when measuring in jet stream long waves. New England will again not be the focal point for the extreme cold and this type of setup will continue to allow the ridge in the southeastern U.S. to flourish and leave Vermont in the continued battleground area of weather. After a few days of cold weather between January 3-5, we might face another marginal scenario where a storm system is attempting to force mild air into New England around January 6-7 and this would be followed by another round of colder arctic air. I fully expect our snow depth to be in a much better situation than it is now in two weeks time but it will be a bumpy ride and there is no clear evidence of a home-run event as of now. 

Snow, some freezing rain/drizzle expected for Christmas Day and a more promising outlook around New Year's

 There's a lot to unpack in this rapidly Evolving weather situation across northern Vermont and yes I capitalized "Evolving" on purpose for emphasis. It's about to get very cold in the Pacific Northwest, a ton of snow is falling around Lake Tahoe and our friends in Aspen got a little taste of what it's like in a typical east coast ski season - it rained !  A rare occurrence in Colorado above 8000 feet, but it rained for several hours Wednesday evening and night and although it is expected to snow Christmas Eve, wet weather is not something that ski town is used to in any winter month. The system responsible for Colorado's weather will move east quickly and bring Vermont its share of weather on Christmas Day. The details continue to change very rapidly. 

 First of all relates to the timing. The whole event was a question mark a few days ago and was initially pegged as a late Christmas Day, early on the 26th light snow situation.   Precipitation is now expected by dawn on Christmas Day. This is a very disorganized storm and is moving quickly but is expected to get an infusion of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally there are healthy low and mid level frontogenetics in place from the strongest area of arctic cold we have seen this season (temps fell close to zero early Xmas Eve in northern VT). In spite of the strong area of surface cold, milder mid level air is expected to chip away and push readings  into the marginal category at around 6000 feet even as it remains sub-freezing closer to our surface. What does this all mean ? Temperatures are close enough to freezing, where it counts, for snow to fall so long as precipitation is heavy enough. When precipitation is lighter, freezing rain or drizzle is possible. Based on some experience I've had with these types of setups, I am going to predict a decent period of snow Christmas morning resulting in a few inches, some light freezing rain or drizzle in the afternoon followed by another period of light snow Christmas night into early Sunday morning the 26th. I think it all totals to about 3-6 conglomeration and I am hopeful that the final inch or two is off the fluffy snow variety. A gentlemen on twitter asked me about the differences between Champlain Valley weather and MRV high country weather and this is one of those instances where we can expect some huge differences. Burlington will get light easterly downsloping winds hurting their ability retain the necessary amounts of low level cold to support snow. Their low elevation will also hold down total precipitation amounts and they will likely struggle to get an inch. Rutland will perform even worse for the same reasons in addition to the fact that they are positioned closer the milder mid-level air. 

We are likely to see more of these marginal situations in the next two weeks with arctic air on the playing field but the southeast U.S. jet stream ridge maintaining a presence and even occasionally surging northward in our direction. Temperatures, especially across the high country, appear to be mostly sub-freezing but it won't guarantee we can keep all precipitation in the form of snow. The next chance for such event appears to be around Tuesday the 28th or Wednesday the 29th with temperatures at critical levels again appearing marginal and varying precipitation types possible. 

There is some decidedly good news involving New Years which appears both colder and potentially snowy across northern Vermont. Models are having a very difficult time dealing with all the fast moving systems and the specifics are therefore very blurry right now but the threat of a thaw appears reduced while the chances for accumulating snow increased in the period between December 31 and January 2. Even with the continued presence of the southeast U.S. ridge the longer range outlook continues to show a decent coverage of arctic air especially over central Canada. Two of the major 3 ensemble packages now indicate a blocking feature in the Chukchi Sea. If this does indeed occur, we will see some very intense arctic chill make a southward push into the U.S. in early January though the focus of this would likely be west of New England. It will mean an interesting start to 2022 to say the least with arctic air likely competing with the southeast U.S. ridge and placing us in the pathway for multiple storms with a variety of outcomes possible.

Uncertainty remains regarding specifics but snowfall over the next 8 days looks better beginning early Christmas Eve

 The White Mountains got a bit of light snow Wednesday morning and parts of interior Maine saw a decent snow event from the mostly offshore storm conglomeration. Vermont was in the unlucky zone this time and aside from snow showers on Wednesday/evening night, our high country under-performed. Our natural snow prospects are looking up generally with several chances emerging or coming into focus beginning early on Christmas Eve. We have a concern around the New Years holiday but I would be inclined to take the "over" on a foot of new snow before Near Years 2022 and the pattern looks favorable for more in the first week of 2022. 

The Hudson Bay is now 80 percent frozen and this is allowing stronger arctic air to infiltrate eastern Canada. Some of that chill will successfully make inroads into northern Vermont Wednesday night into early Thursday and as a result, we can expect the coldest day of the season so far with temperatures holding in the teens across the high country and struggling to 20 in the Valley. Clouds and an area of light snow are expected early on Christmas Eve. The best chance for 2-4 inches appears to be over the Berkshires or southern Vermont but this zone of snowfall has looked better and better over time and 1-3 inches looks likely the MRV as opposed to just possible with all of this coming before the ski day. Of even more interest is what appears to be a healthier area of moisture associated with an approaching storm system late on Christmas Day into Sunday the 26th. Models are having trouble establishing a clear consensus on the outcome here but the American model has, for several runs, indicated a significant snowfall for much of northern Vermont. I want to be optimistic but taken in the aggregate, a significant storm of over 10 inches remains just possible but a light snowfall late on Christmas Day into early on the 26th of at least 3 inches appears likely. The forecast is likely to evolve a bit so stay tuned. 

Interestingly, the models not on board with a storm on the 25th/26th are on board with snowfall Monday/Tuesday the 27th and 28th. So it appears to be a situation where the various forecast simulations are having trouble resolving the complicated interaction of jet stream shortwaves and areas of moisture and surface features. In spite of this uncertainty however, we have the right ingredients for snowfall through December 30th and are in a good spot for snow in a fairly wide range of scenarios. Just a matter of determining the where and the when. 

Where I have some concern is the period around New Years. The big picture jet stream view has a blocking feature in the Hudson Straight around this time while a ridge in the southeast United States experiences from temporary strengthening. I can recall how the Christmas 2020 forecast evolved into a debauchery and will note some similarities. We don't want any storm getting sucked into central Canada to the west of that block and would much prefer a storm that would tunnel through all of that and allow cold air to remain entrenched over Vermont. Ensemble data would seem to suggest a latter scenario for now but I am little nervous. 

Meanwhile the bitterly cold air over North America will maintain an intense focus on western Canada and portions of the Pacific Northwest both around and after Christmas. Most of the big weather headlines that are winter related will be focused on that region of North America but some of that cold is indicated to stretch eastward into early 2022 and impact parts of New England. If we can avoid a New Years thaw, we would be set up well for a productive start to 2022. Congratulations to all for rounding another Winter Solstice. We can never be too certain about weather conditions but we can say that the next 6 months will feature increasing amounts of light so enjoy !

Even as milder weather controls much of the eastern United States this Christmas, winter maintains a grip on Vermont with several chances for light snow in the coming week

A couple runs of the European Model was suggesting a widespread torch on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day over portions of the Plains, Midwest and Southeast. On the heels of the out of season weather last week and last years Christmas monsoon, this caused a bit of a stir in the social media weather back and forth. Though the weather has trended in the "not as cold" direction over Vermont, our outlook still appears pretty solid for winter weather through the holidays. Our biggest concern involves the track of a  potential weather system on December 28th, but taken at face value, sub freezing temperatures appear likely to hold their ground, especially above 2000, where most of us actually ski. 

A clipper system, well to our north will give us a distant hand wave but aside from some flurries or very light snow, we won't see much of anything. If you're desperately looking for that 1-3" then head toward the Canadian border but most of Vermont will just see intervals of clouds and sun on Tuesday with temperatures generally in the 20's. We have better chance of snow early on Wednesday when a strong sub-tropical system off the Atlantic coast begins to team with a stronger polar/pacific impulse. An area of snow will be expanding across eastern New York and interior New England and although the best area of snow clearly appears to be Maine, several hours of light snow is likely across the northern Vermont high country before dawn or at least before the ski day Wednesday. This appears to be a 1-3 situation but additional changes are possible. 

The cold weather will hold its ground across Vermont on Christmas Eve/Day but the milder air will make a big push northward and that process will create a zone of moisture and precipitation across the northeast. In Vermont most of that will fall as snow, so long as the moisture makes it far enough northward before decaying as it runs into dry airmass stationed to our north. The timing of all this appears to be either late on Christmas Eve or early Christmas Day and would amount to another light accumulation for the Christmas ski day if it happens. 

The big picture outlook has trended toward the less cold side. The main reason for this has to do with the bitterly cold air having a specific focus on western North America particularly western Canada. Meanwhile, a blocking ridge will migrate from central Greenland to the Hudson Strait well north of us. Oddly enough (or not so oddly), this pattern appears similar to the jet stream configuration that prevailed in the weeks following Christmas last year. Though much of the Vermont high country remained sub freezing throughout the period and even scored some decent snowfall, temperatures were not bitterly cold and continued to average above normal relative to climatology. 

As mentioned in the opening, there is evidence of another organized storm impacting our region around the 28th. We have what appears to be a soft area of cold weather dominating much of interior New England and eastern Canada around this time and although in the case of Vermont, milder air will make another run at the region, ensembles are suggesting that sub-freezing temperatures hold. This means that the forecast for the holiday week should consist of temperatures in the 20's and 30's for highs and mostly teens for lows. Chances for snow or wintry precipitation are on the aforementioned Tuesday the 28th and again closer to New Years.

6-12 for Saturday with a wintry holiday outlook remaining in place

Our reintroduction to winter on Saturday will be exciting with a beautiful powdery snowfall expected to begin around noon and continue at a slow but steady rate through the overnight and into very early Sunday. It is actually a very straight-forward forecast considering. I know some of the model output maps circulating around social media would indicate that southern Vermont is the best spot for this storm. Perhaps, but I would still prefer to be us. We will be in a colder spot with temperatures closer to 20 on the mountain and temperature profiles indicate no threat of mixing - just a cold powdery snow from start to finish with 1-3 inches late in the ski day Saturday and a storm total of 6-12 inches by the start of the ski day Sunday. Flurries will linger into Sunday but the daytime weather will feature some sunshine, blustery and cold conditions with temperatures around 20 degrees. 

We will have additional chances for snowfall late Monday into Monday night (very light) and again on Wednesday into Wednesday night the 23rd. The polar jet disturbance arriving on Wednesday may interact with a stronger sub-tropical feature off the Atlantic Coastline setting up an inverted trough situation and a decent area of snowfall somewhere across interior New England although it will take another day or two to figure out if 1) that actually happens 2) where that actually happens. We will successfully keep temperatures under the freezing mark for an extended stretch, beginning with Saturday's storm and lasting through Christmas; in fact, the actual Christmas holiday will likely feature the coldest weather of the season so far with the phased storm off shore opening the door for a stronger version of arctic air to enter our forecast picture. Having said this, any cold weather should remain in the garden variety category for Vermont with high temperatures in the teens and 20's. The much below normal cold should remain out in the Pacific Northwest for the time being. 

Some of the above dovetails rather nicely into the longer range outlook which continues to consist of winter-like temperatures of a more garden variety and certainly a few chances for snow between Christmas and New Years. The feature in the jet stream that will help keep New England on the more wintry side is a strong area of unsettled weather positioned south of Newfoundland, directly underneath a blocking feature over Greenland. Northwest flow in the jet stream (over us) is generally considered fair-weather flow but a weak ridge in the central United States will try and push storms up in our direction once or twice. We could also attain a bit of colder moisture from the Canadian Maritimes in this setup were we to miss out on a more organized weather system. The colder more wintry outlook remains in place through both holidays right now and certainly no repeat of last year's rainy Christmas debacle. Enjoy the powdery snow Saturday !

Mild stretch ends Friday with 6-12 powdery inches coming late Saturday and colder weather maintaining a grip on Vermong through Christmas

Parts of Nebraska and Iowa that are more used to seeing sub-zero temperatures this time of year are dealing with a massive severe weather outbreak from thunderstorms. Straight line winds of close to 100 and even tornadoes just add to what has been a historic December for weather more typical in April or May. Though we will avoid the thunderstorms on Thursday, we can expect some gusty winds to go along with the very mild 50-plus temperatures, especially during the afternoon and evening. 60-degree readings are certainly possible in valley locations but it will require a few hours of sunshine and that is not what data is indicating at this time.

Colder temperatures will very slowly seep back into Vermont Friday but we can still expect a very mild December day with readings generally above freezing with the exception of the highest summits. Fortunately this will be the last such day in a while with a new very improved regime set to take over, just in the nick of time for the holidays. Saturday's storm is a beauty. A fast moving open wave, so we won't see anything historic but the storm is strong enough and appears poised to track right through our powder alley - the southern New England coastline. Temperatures might be hovering in the high 20's Saturday morning, but will fall into the teens and low 20's once the snow begins around noon and continues into the overnight hours. By Sunday morning, much of northern Vermont can expect a powdery 4-8 inches with 6-12 over the high country. A very nice liftoff event even if it was delayed. 

I had my fears and doubts but it appears as if the cold will mostly win the battle for control of Vermont's weather following Saturday's storm and through Christmas Day. This is terrific news because the risk of another thaw or rain/ice type event was certainly lingering, but we can just push much of that to the south for now. It doesn't look like anything big will come together for Monday/Tuesday, the 21st and 22nd but a polar jet impulse has the capability of bringing both light snow Monday night followed by a reinforcement of colder temperatures for the middle of the week. There is an interesting sub-tropical feature that will be spinning its wheels along the Gulf Coast at this point and its interaction with the series of polar jet impulses remains a question. It may pass innocently offshore with a whimper late next week, but it could phase either slightly offshore or closer to the coastline with a stronger polar jet impulse poised to enter our forecast picture on the 23rd into Christmas Eve. Either way, it provides us with another opportunity for at least some light snow and a slight chance for something bigger. Temperatures on the mountain should remain below the freezing mark throughout next week and should top out in the 20's and 30's across the valley locations while falling into the single numbers and teens during the overnights.

Our new and improved weather pattern continues to look gradually better with each passing day. The bulk of the cold and storminess still appears focused on the Pacific Northwest around Christmas, but this area of cold appears to seek a broader, flatter influence over lower North America. It will essentially get squeezed, pinched and almost hyphenated over southern Canada and the northern third of the United States, lodged between two upper air ridges, one in the northern Pacific and another over Greenland. Barring a change, this should equate to some excellent results for Vermont with cold weather remaining in place or even intensifying and a storm track aimed south but not too far south of us. The southeast ridge appears weaker but it continues to lurk over the southern plains, This collection of features should produce a rather fast current of air over the United States and some storminess between the holidays. Just a massive improvement compared to how this all looked a week ago ! Fingers remain crossed.

Next week/holiday outlook continues to show improvement with new snow providing relief as early as Saturday !

The torchy pattern already underway will hit us with 3 big upper cuts. The first having already happened on Saturday with the rain and wind. The 2nd came Monday and was a rather tranquil spring-like Vermont day with plenty of afternoon sunshine and near 50-degree temperatures across low lying areas. The third will come Thursday and continue into Thursday night and will feature more wind, maybe some minimal sun Thursday afternoon and readings as high as 60 in some valley locations. The strong and balmy winds will continue through the Thursday overnight but we appear to be mostly done with the "R" word and the outlook beginning as early as this weekend continues to improve and the holiday period continues to look more and more wintry across interior New England. 

Two very important fundamental changes will be responsible for aforementioned improved outlook. Convective forcing in the south Pacific will continue to work at softening the jet stream and forcing much of the ridging closer to the Arctic. This along with the formation of a large ridge in the jet stream over Greenland will allow much of the arctic air over North America to make a southward push, even within a week ! We haven't eliminated all of our road blocks. The formidable ridge will get pushed southward across the eastern United States but will not be eliminated completely and thus the pattern will take on a classic La Nina look with cold and storminess focused on the west, mild weather confined to the southeast and winter assuming a tenuous grip on the Great Lakes and New England. I'll take tenuous over nothing and with that we can discuss our chances for snow. 

Our first chance comes Saturday in a classic, if you don't like the weather just wait a day - fashion. Temperatures on Friday will be very slow to chill and are unlikely to reach the freezing mark until Saturday when precipitation is set to arrive. We won't have any cold/dry air to work with in eastern Canada but we will have incoming cold behind this system and  this creates a scenario will temperatures will continue to fall late in the day Saturday allowing any mixed precipitation to turn to snow. We have two of the three major medium range computer simulations indicating this event and I am certainly at the point where I think it's more likely than not. What kind of event do I speak ? At least a few inches of snow followed by garden variety cold weather Sunday into Monday.

In addition to the event on Saturday, there are indications of another on Tuesday, the winter solstice and then another right around Christmas weekend. Most importantly (at least to my eyes) is this continued trend to place interior New England on the cold side of this Canadian cold vs southeast U.S. warmth battle. This alone substantially lowers the risk for any rain and above-freezing temperatures of any real significance.

Though weather pattern flip is unlikely by the holiday, winter weather and snow is likely to make a return, at least in some form

 I can't provide any good news for the upcoming week except to reiterate what has already been discussed and amplify on a few themes. We can expect to see sunshine Monday, Tuesday, and parts of Wednesday and Thursday while most of our nights will stay sub-freezing. It will be mild Monday and then very mild late in the day Thursday, Thursday night and into Friday morning. Last I checked, it's pretty hard to blow a building down that hasn't even been built and I am of course speaking figuratively about our snowcover. If clouds do give way to sunshine and wind on Thursday, we could see temperatures approach 60 across low lying areas. If it stays cloudy, it will stay cooler much like it did Saturday but the mild air combined with wind will chew away at any existing snowcover man-made or not. Those snow-eating conditions will continue into Thursday night before cooler weather arrives during the day Friday. It's a very mild week overall but we've been anticipating this for a while and although a pattern flip still isn't imminent, the outlook continues to improve starting as early as the December 18th-19th weekend. 

There are a few important bullet points to keep in mind. 1) Climatology in late-December Vermont is quite different than early-December Vermont. Marginal patterns can be productive by late December. 2) The pattern doesn't look ideal but the weather pattern continues to look less and less unblocked by the winter solstice (sorry about the double negative there but trying to apply the most accurate adjectives). 3) The coldest weather in the northern hemisphere continues to be heavily focused on our continent, opening the door for arctic air to provide a much needed assist in this marginal overall weather pattern. 

The bottom line for the days leading up the holiday and beyond: The focus of the cold appears to be on western North America just as it did a few days ago but with the jet stream at high latitude looking more blocked, arctic air appears capable of being a significant player across northern Vermont. We will certainly need it given the continued presence of a ridge in the jet stream in the southeastern United States. The period beginning December 18th and extending through Christmas is likely to feature several chances for precipitation. Though we are unlikely to score victories for every potential event, we will be back in the game which is certainly a big improvement over the upcoming week where we will have "no game". Hopefully we all stayed dry today !

A mostly mild outlook remains in place but I've seen worse !

 I want to start this post on a wintry theme. First, it is wintry thanks to the snow we received Wednesday evening and a couple of beautiful Lake Champlain enhanced snow showers that were nice to enough to present themselves to the Mad River Valley Thursday morning. More generally (and secondly), the region is on the far southern periphery of a very impressive polar vortex that impacted much of central and eastern Canada with severe early December cold. The expansive area of chill never really made a serious run at the United States but it did effectively eliminate all of the warm water in the Hudson Bay, which as of December 9th is a third frozen. Take a look !  

SST Animation

Arctic Ice Coverage - NATICE 

The upcoming forecast is not especially wintry but eliminating bad feedbacks mechanisms will hopefully pay dividends down the road. In the short term, we can expect to enjoy our wintry weather through Friday and perhaps pick up a little light snow from some rapidly northeastward moving warm advection moisture. That snow exit by early afternoon and we can expect temperatures to hover around the freezing mark through Friday night. Saturday still looks to be a torch. Mad River has indicated they want to open the practice slope on Saturday and we can expect low clouds in the morning to give way to a mild and windy afternoon with rain showers moving between 1 and 3 pm. Temperatures are likely to make it well into the 50's in the valley and at least approach 50 at the MRG base so snow conditions should soften accordingly.  It won't be as mild Sunday but it won't be cold either with temperatures hovering in the 30's. Expect both sub-freezing temperatures and wind above 2500 feet. 

The central third of the country appears to be ground zero for next week's mega torch. Mild temperatures will impact Vermont as well but as I mentioned a few days ago, we will mostly remain on the fair weather, front flank of the large jet stream ridge. This means we should see decent amounts of sunshine and it also means cooler Canadian air is likely to keep interior New England closer to normal compared with areas like Minnesota or Wisconsin. Temperatures are likely to climb into the 40's across low lying areas on Monday and might get as high as 50 very late in the week. Most of our nights will be sub-freezing however and the middle part of week will feature sunshine and readings in the thirties. I expect to see a bit of rain sometime late in the week but I've seen rainier and milder thaw's than this one. I like mild weather in the spring but I find record high temperatures in December to be rather soul crushing and I don't think we see those next week. 

There are also signs in the long range that the pattern fundamentals or teleconnection indices will be improving. The jet stream at high latitudes begins to look less unblocked and the AO index appears close to zero as we approach Christmas. All this said, the pattern still favors mild weather in New England through the Winter Solstice and beyond and even if effectively neutralize the AO and partially weaken a Pacific Jet stream, it will take a little while before we can start talking about a sustained stretch of winter weather and cold. I might add that the changes in the jet stream fundamentals actually favor a rather impressive out break of cold across the western North America. I expect some of our favorite ski areas out west to perform very well during this holiday period and into early 2022. 

I did notice that the Chrome internet browser is not letting users on to the blog while other browsers are indicating it is not secure. I will look into this and hopefully we can rectify quickly. 

The unfriendly December weather report

It's not a friendly update  in the shorter or longer range today and I think the best thing we can do  is simply establish that it should be a a month of low expectations and hopefully we can surprise to the upside from a low bar. Speaking frankly, we have a dreadful collection of teleconnection fundamentals while we continue to face warm ocean/lake water temperature feedbacks stemming from months of warm weather.  There are some in the weather forecasting community suggesting a return to colder/more wintry weather by Christmas and I will talk about that more in depth a few paragraph's down but personally I am pessimistic we will see any sustained stretch of wintry weather after December 10th until January '22. With colder temperatures close by in Canada, we could see multi-day stretches of cold weather and some snow but more generally speaking, this will be a challenging last three week of December, there's just no getting around it. 

Regarding the midweek threat of snow, it has not vanished entirely but almost entirely . The system currently centered near Grand Teton National Park is simply not very robust, and is not expected to be as it migrates into the central Plains Tuesday. A wave of low pressure is still expected to evolve into a more organized storm along the eastern seaboard by early Wednesday but without the help of a more potent Midwest weather system, it is difficult to imagine a big east coast weather producing system evolving from this and models are not suggesting there is one. In other words, we need more than just a "northward shift" we need a stronger storm. Light snow can still be expected Wednesday, enough to whiten the ground with 1-3 inches, but a big storm has gotten more and more unlikely. After the thaw on Monday we can expect sub-freezing temperatures through Friday with some sunshine on Tuesday, some more on Thursday while Wednesday features the aforementioned light snow. More light snow is possible very early Friday ahead of the push of much milder temperatures. 

This first push warmer weather Saturday looks especially ferocious and we can be glad about not having any deep early season snow because most of that would get wiped out by the combination of near 60-degree temperatures, wind and a period of rain. There are some question marks relating to a wave of low pressure that could become a well organized east coast area of low pressure. This storm will have a weakening area of cold to work with but there are scenarios that could include a mild rain to snow situation on Sunday. Both the European and American models have suggested such at various times but data is not illustrating any confidence inspiring consistency that such a scenario will occur. Regardless, we will get a return to colder weather for a day or two beginning Sunday before again facing the music of a very bad weather pattern. 

 More specifically on next week, the large warm weather producing jet stream ridge is expected to set up over the middle of the United States placing New England in the warm but front flank part of this expansive weather feature. This does give us the silver lining of both pleasant weather and a continuation of mostly sub-freezing nights which enable snow making operations to continue. I've seen a few simulations suggesting an area of more legitimate cold could save interior New England from a multi-day thaw. This is possible but at the very least I would expect a few above-freezing days and certainly not a lot of natural snowfall if any. 

Getting back to the longer range/holiday speculation talk, I've seen some speculation regarding a pattern change around Christmas stemming from some weakening of what is expected to be a strong Pacific jet stream. The basis for this is the expectation that the Madden Julian Oscillation appears fluid as opposed to stagnant and poised to move into Phase 7, which is a more neutral phase for winter weather in eastern North America as opposed to the current phase 6 which is considered mild. The fluid nature of the MJO is certainly encouraging but it's going to take some time to break down the current combination of unfavorable teleconnection indices. Aside from the strong/tight jet stream in the Pacifc, we still have a very unblocked pattern at high latitudes highlighted by an Arctic Oscillation projected to range between a +1 and +2 for the next 2 weeks. A negative AO is absolutely vital for winter weather south of 40N and fairly important (though not vital) for winter weather in Vermont, especially in December. That said, I would like to seem some stronger evidence that the prevailing "unblocked" jet stream regime will break down.

 

Wintry temps and a little snow this weekend and some snow potential continues for the middle of next week before the weather pattern takes a turn for the worse

 The forecast for Monday has deteriorated to trash which is a rude interruption to what could have been a nice early December 7-day stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. All indications are that this will be a tough month for winter-weather lovers in New England. We've talked about all the feedbacks working against us and when you add in a prevailing + Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and a positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) the results will be predictably bad. We continue to see some very cold air positioned over Alaska and much of northern and central Canada but its a challenge to put this chill to good use in December, and Monday's torch is a perfect end-result example. 

We still have a wintry weekend to look forward to. Sunshine and near 10-degree temperatures early on Saturday will give way to some clouds. The snow from our benign weekend disturbance is not expected to arrive until after the ski day and in the evening. Northern Vermont appears to be the best area of accumulating snow in this period and this appears to be a fluffy 1-3 inch situation for MRG. Models are indicating a few clouds for Sunday so perhaps not total bluebird, but we can expect a decent dose of sun during the day and the warm advection clouds are not expected until after it gets dark. 

Most of the east coast is now expected to get a torch on Monday with soaring temperatures. Cold will linger for a few hours in Vermont under clouds but the inversion is expected to mix out during the afternoon allowing temperatures to soar into the 40's. A short period of rain is likely at some time late in the day before a cold front dries it out and cools it down. Sub-freezing temperatures are then expected to prevail for most of the rest of the week (through Friday) but can we get some snow before the weather pattern fundamentals turn ugly around December 10th. 

We have a couple of models indicating most of the moisture associated with a weather system in the middle of next week will be south of Vermont. We also have the American GFS model showing a more direct hit and decent dose of snow. Mix that data all together and you get an appetizing model consensus but I have some concerns about whether this system can actually organize itself enough to send moisture deep into interior New England. We have a very healthy baroclinic environment along the eastern seaboard working for us so the situation is certainly worth monitoring. 

The period between December 10th and the Winter Solstice does not look good as I mentioned. A Friday afternoon run of the European Operational model did bring in a decent area of cold late next weekend into Monday December 13th following a wintry mix-type event on the weekend of December 11th-12th. This was not supported by the corresponding run of the Euro Ensemble so though I am inclined to generally disregard it, the model did illustrate how cold air in nearby Canada might successfully make an intrusion in spite of the lousy weather pattern fundamentals. The risk of a multi-day thaw and rain however is pretty high in this time frame and this would be the point I would want to underscore before leaving you all for the weekend. Enjoy the wintry temps while we have them !

Cold weather and some light snow for Saturday while best snow potential shifts to the middle of next week

Our friends up in King Salmon, AK, one of my favorite names for a town, just finished the month of November with temperatures averaging 21 degrees below normal. King Salmon is not especially inland, sitting not far from the Kvichak Bay adjacent to the Bering Sea and just east of the Katmai National Park. In other words, this is pretty far south in Alaska and highlights what has been a month of incredible cold along the southern coastline of our nation's largest state. Much of this cold remains as of this post and has expanded to include much of northern Canada. It will remain locked in place for the foreseeable future and will make occasional appearances in Vermont but a bit more infrequent than I would like, especially after December 9th. 

Up until this aforementioned date, we do have some winter to discuss. The dynamic looking BC bomber system is unfortunately a flop. With the track of this storm now expected to be well over Quebec, the storm and its relative strength will help push above-freezing temperatures into most of the low lying areas of Vermont Thursday and any precipitation will be of the mixed or rainy variety. Above 2000 feet, rain showers Thursday afternoon will likely turn to snow by the evening. Flurries and snow showers are likely to continue into early Friday as colder air settles into the state. The mountains can expect a small accumulation from all this but I had hoped for more and I wouldn't bet on more at this point. I am more encouraged by another weaker disturbance expected to bring limited moisture to Vermont early Saturday. This arrives during a period of much colder temperatures and has the potential to provide our local high country with a few fluffy inches. Still a little difficult to say which part of Vermont will score the most from this moisture-starved system but we have as good of a shot at as anyone else of scoring a few inches. As I mentioned this disturbance comes during a decent multi-day stretch of sub-freezing cold which will begin with temperatures in the 20's Friday and continue through the weekend with single digit temperatures possible Sunday morning. Sunday looks like a December bluebird special, always appreciated by me during our darkest month of the year. 

I wish I had more conclusive and better info to report for early next week. The American GFS model has in the past and continues to show an inland Great Lakes runner, so much so in the last few runs that Vermont would get a full blown torch Monday and we would just forget about snow. Other data still points to a colder more wintry scenario but even this would be well short of ideal. Consensus has certainly moved away from the possibility of a storm tracking south of us and this makes the notion of heftier accumulations a very tough ask. My guess right now would be for a snow to wintry-mix conglomeration and we could get front-end thumped with a few inches. I am trying to avoid getting sucked into to any wishcasting vortex here and remind anyone that these lousy feedbacks (warm aggregate bodies of water around us) are not going to do us any favors during these close call situations. Some good news ? We do have a second chance during the middle of the week with models starting to signal at a more organized storm coming on the heels of a short-lived but somewhat intense shot of arctic chill Tuesday and Tuesday night. 

The longer range continues to look the same and not especially encouraging. Were it January or February, I could muster up some optimism that clashing of very cold air in Canada and mild air in the southeast US would serve us well. Combine the aforementioned adverse feedbacks with a decidedly +AO/EPO and tough sledding is clearly the most likely result. Any sustained stretch of milder air does appear delayed until at least the very end of next week (December 10) which would be a positive. The other positive continues to be the relative proximity of the very cold air in Canada. Much of the eastern United States is likely to avoid it but we are Vermont and are special in this regard so might get a little. To summarize though, I do not expect the period between December 10th and December 21st to be especially wintry or snowy and we should at least one very significant thaw. It will however be cold in the Pacific Northwest and snowy parts of the Rocky Mountain west. I would expect a few snowy headlines in some unusual locations as well.