We mitigated our potential thaw and replaced it what appears to be at least a modest snow event late this week

There was some concern in the energy universe that we were heading toward a milder repeat of the disastrous rolling blackout situation in Texas late this week.  This refers to what happened last February in a very amplified weather pattern. It was bad for Texas because of the electricity shortages and bad for us since we underperformed on snowfall and then ended the month with a thaw. The point of all this is to illustrate that an over-amplified pattern with cold in Texas can be a risky situation for Vermont. Fortunately in this case, the pattern has trended flatter which is a great situation for them in terms of keeping the lights on, and a better situation for us, since our thaw appears severely mitigated while our snow prospects appear dramatically better. So lets move on from Saturday and go !

We still have a round of milder weather to concern ourselves with, but I am hopeful that we've reduced the above-freezing window to 24 hours or less. Tuesday is a bluebird day and a comfortable one with temperatures rebounding well into the 20's after cold start. The mild period begins midday Wednesday with temperatures climbing up above the freezing mark thanks to a stiff southerly breeze. Temperatures are likely to remain in the mid or even high 30's through a good part of Wednesday evening and through the overnight. Yes, we could see a bit of light rain very early Thursday but the risk for a snow eating heavy rain has dropped significantly I am very happy to report. 

Now to the fun part of all these forecast changes. That core of that strong arctic cold that some folks thought would cause problems in Texas, will instead work to take the legs out of the warm-up in northern New England. A push of low level cold is expected to arrive early on Thursday sending temperatures back to and eventually below the freezing mark. As this is happening, a wave of low pressure takes shape along the Gulf Coast and moves northeastward, enhancing an area of snow, sleet and freezing rain across the eastern Great Lakes and eventually interior New England. Models have not come to a consensus on where this transitional area of precipitation sets up, but taken in the aggregate, northern Vermont is well positioned to get at least a few inches on Thursday following a bit of light rain and a period of sleet. A recent run of the GFS gave us a few inches of snow Thursday before shunting precipitation to the south while the Euro/Canadian places northern Vermont in a sweet spot for snow beginning Thursday and extending into Friday  (albeit with the turn to snow a little more delayed Thursday). With model output having yet to steady, I would just split the difference here and expect a modest (4-10 inch) but not heavy event. Yes, there's likely a sweet spot here but it is a narrow one and although we deserve this, the heaviest snow could end up north or south of us. 

Snowfall could extend into midday Friday before the weather clears and it turns blustery and cold.  Saturday's temps are likely to hover around zero on the mountain with a modest northwest wind. Sunday starts cold with sub-zero temperatures but calm winds and sunshine will make it a pretty warm 20-degrees by the afternoon. 

Monday concludes what was a cold and somewhat dry month for Vermont. February appears to be a different animal with the core of strongest cold retreating into Quebec and Greenland (+NAO), helped along with the Pacific which looks a little feistier but not entirely angry. We will have the support of a somewhat positive PNA anchored by a ridge that is expected to develop over the eastern Pacific and extend slightly into western North America. The latter feature appears to be the strongest on the hemispheric board and is likely to keep winter alive and well in Vermont for the foreseeable future. The cold should soften after this weekend but we should see additional chances for snowfall after Sunday especially if we resort to a more traditional La Nina setup. Keep in mind that the cold weather has put some significant ice on the Great Lakes which discourages the inland runner and favors snow across interior New England. This is consistent with our snow climatology which often has the best snow in February and March across the mountains of Vermont.

Midday Friday data nudges storm back to the east and is not quite as strong

So I wanted to provide a quick update on our storm in response to some data released at midday Friday. The shift to the west ended and models seemed to have settled on the idea that the storm tracks within a 100 or so miles of Cape Cod. The other trend, and I am not sure how much of this is real, is that the surface low gets stretched to the east as it tries to rapidly intensify and this is messing with its ability to undergo a clean detonation. This latter issue is either very real or something imaginary that will disappear on a subsequent set of model runs, but it is critical since it pertains to the maturation process of the storm and its ability to spread snowfall west of its center. An early maturation is better for us, a delayed maturation and the snowfall will be more consolidated to the coastline. 

I've been optimistic on this storm because of the prevailing upper level environment and the relative warmth of the coastal Atlantic which has been a big feature of the winter season and has even earned a few headlines in national news recently. This certainly doesn't mean I will be right however and for as much as data yesterday evening suggested a well stuck double, today's data is a lot less so. With that said, I am balancing some of my existing views on this storm with the latest round of model data. It's very tough because this is such a tight gradient with some other very consequential questions that remain unanswered. The moral of this update, 5-10 appears to be more of a reach again and the original 2-5 inches appears more likely. It is certainly worth watching how this storm evolves given how small changes will have such a big impact on results.

Expected track of historic nor'easter shifts west and puts the MRV in play for some moderate snow late Saturday

Seems like a good time to do a two-a-day update on our historic nor'easter so lets go for it. This is an incredible looking storm, certainly rivaling anything I've blogged about and seems poised to earn itself a chapter in some future book about 21st century New England winter storms. Indeed, it looks that good, but it's also a dangerous storm with high winds, very limited visibility and cold temperatures so be careful out there. In Vermont, many folks have thrown up the white flag and given up on this storm against my advice. Well, put those flags away because there's a little room in this tent for us as well. The track of this storm has shifted west and hopefully continues to do so. There's still some critical disagreement but we've pulled this storm to within 100 miles of the Cape and it is a beast, perhaps as strong as 970 mb as it lurks just offshore. The actual strength and the actual track, every mb and every few miles really matters so ironing out all of those last details remains of import. 

Now that we have some better agreement on the phasing and have pulled the storm closer to the coast, I can discuss why we are pretty well positioned to get a nice 5-10 from the event which is a big improvement verses earlier expectations. I am leaning heavily on experience but I also have the support of some trusted model data. Often times with these "bombs", snowfall will be fairly consolidated around the low pressure center initially but will ultimately explode westward when the rapid intensification has concluded. In many instances the westward retrogression of the moisture of the moisture is underpredicted by the models though they have certainly gotten better in recent years. It might seem like a struggle for the snow to work its way into the MRV on Saturday but ultimately it will and if the current track of the storm holds or better yet, moves farther west, snow should fall at a decent rate Saturday evening and night. It remains unlikely we hit a home run, but a well-struck 5-10 inch double would be my current expectation. I might add that this is a very cold snow and would be of a very low density except for the howling north winds blowing upwards of 50 mph at the summit. Snow will exit quickly and likely be gone by Sunday morning and the strong winds should also subside as the day progresses. 

I didn't get to the longer range earlier and I know there has been some legitimate concern over that. We've got a chilly start to the upcoming week with more sub-zero temperatures but the cold is expected to subside and ultimately give way to some sort of thaw around the time frame of Thursday. We may see some overrunning snow or mixed precipitation on Wednesday before what appears to be 24-36 hours of above freezing temperatures beginning Wednesday night or Thursday and lasting into early Friday. The concern involves the nature of this period of warmth and not necessarily the warmth itself and whether or not its associated with a well organized Great Lakes cutter capable of bringing wind and heavy rain into northern Vermont. There have been indications of this and hints that the situation might be better than worst case with a less amplified pattern, less rain and less warmth. As of now though, it appears to be a challenge to make it through Thursday without some rain and 40-plus temps, 

Cold weather will return for the weekend and the pattern looks somewhat wintry thereafter. Winter, by no means appears finished after the early part of this week.

Northern Vermont remains on the fringe of big nor'easter and chances for big snow are reduced but not entirely eliminated

 Storm speculation for Saturday's bomb is approaching a crescendo. The late-inning phasers are very difficult to get a handle on just from the standpoint of model data and add to that all of the very intelligent but also very reactive weather enthusiasts on social media and its a mess. This is why I try and avoid getting too caught up in the play by play of model data and other observations. There is a lot of both and it's usually better and easier for everyone just to focus on the big picture. And amazingly, that picture for us has not changed much. We remain on the fringe of what is potentially a mammouth nor'easter. Our chances for big snow have been reduced simply because we have not gotten the northwest shift we've been hoping for (at least as of yet). If the storm indeed phases and bombs over the relative warmth of the coastal Atlantic, snowfall across the western fringe (which includes us) will over perform. This is just my opinion of course and not a strict adherence to any preferred data point. There's model data suggesting  enough momentum in the jet stream to take the storm far enough east to shut us out. This remains a possibility but I am not of the belief that happens. 

The remnants of a weakened clipper system will allow some light snow to fall over northern Vermont early Friday but a reinforcing push of low level arctic chill from a high pressure center over Quebec will dry things out during the afternoon. We may even see some clearing Friday night that would allow temperatures to fall back toward -10 by early Saturday. Clouds will again encompass much of Vermont by mid-morning Saturday and I think some snow will work into the area Saturday afternoon, expanding westward from the deepening storm off the New England coast. As of now, model consensus takes the storm 100-200 miles east of Cape Cod. This is too far east for big snow in northern Vermont but if we can pull this storm to within 50 miles of the Cape, things would change quite dramatically. For now, that big snow can be expected across the White Mountains of New Hampshire and much of Maine. If the track of the storm remains unchanged, I think we can expect some light snow Saturday evening and night with blustery conditions and about 2-5 inches by Sunday morning. The weekend will be another cold one. Temperatures will be stuck in the single numbers on Saturday and it will be largely the same on Sunday accompanied by strong northwest winds during the ski day. For coastal areas of eastern Mass, the seacoast of NH and much of Maine, this is a historic nor'easter and should do a number on travel late on Saturday and Saturday night. I certainly expect some 2 foot totals in some of those locations. 

I have some thoughts on the longer range as well including the mild, torchy intrusion that is more likely late next week. It's busy today though and I'll add that part of the update this afternoon.

Massive east coast bomb this Saturday is very close to delivering the MRV a big storm but we remain on the fringe for now

 We've finally settled in to a good groove at Mad River Glen where a couple inches of snow is more routine and less news. That's certainly a good thing but we need this groove to have some lasting power and we would go a long way in doing that were we to lock down a big storm for the upcoming weekend. Our chances for big snow have certainly improved over the past few days but we have not totally gotten this horse into the stable. It's a tenuous situation involving very slow moving subtropical energy and a seemingly benign southeastward moving clipper. The eastward seaboard will be ripe for explosive storm development from the phasing of these two seemingly innocuous weather impulses but phasing such as this can get very chaotic and small errors or changes in the placement or movement of certain players can have a big impact on the game at large. 

In the meantime, Vermont will endure another round of intense cold arriving Tuesday night and persisting through much of Thursday. Interestingly, the chill largely failed to meet expectations across more populated areas of the U.S. but has consistently met if not exceeded expectation across interior New England and will help make the month the coldest in several years as mentioned previously. Wednesday remains the coldest day accompanied by blustery winds, Thursday will be the coldest morning with another round of 20 below zero temperatures and the stable nature of the airmass should help ensure some terrific visibility over this period. 

The aforementioned clipper will actually spread some light snow back into Vermont on Friday for a time, but as the storm begins to take shape along the Carolina coastline, precipitation will consolidate farther south during the afternoon and evening, at least the precipitation that matters. It has all the makings of a classic "bomb" Friday night, with arctic air, a favorable upper air environment and relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean all working in concert to allow explosive development to occur off the eastern seaboard. Even aggregating the data with the European ensemble mean shows a sub-980 low in the Gulf of Maine by late Saturday. This would put the storm into the category of the Ides of March 2017 event in terms of strength but the impact on northern Vermont will depend heavily on the track. As of now, data would suggest that the storm tracks 100-150 miles east of the Jersey coast and roughly 50 miles east of Cape Cod. This places Vermont on the fringe of the storm and includes several inches but certainly not a foot or more. It also means a shift farther to the east has the potential to shut us out. But with the disclaimer safely out there, I can leave you all with one of my favorite Lord Of The Rings analogies. The ring is always trying to get back to its master - it wants to be found ! The ring being the storm and its master is the coastline where all of that natural organic baroclinicity is always is always calling and is always magnetic. Storm's love to hug the coastline I would not be surprised to see a shift in that direction in the next few days. 

It almost goes without saying that Sunday will be very blustery in the wake of the storm. Depending on the track, we could see some lingering snow showers but the pattern remains fast moving and any snow should dissipate quickly and give way to clearing and a few dry weather days on the last day of January (Monday) and the first day of February (Tuesday). After that, we encounter our first real challenge in some time as the ridge/trough pattern reorients and allows milder temperatures to push northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. I've seen some operational model data indicate a full blown multi-day thaw in the February 3rd-4th time frame but i've also seen indications of resistance from residual cold weather in eastern Canada. The latter scenario allows for some overrunning snow from a fairly organized storm system in this time frame followed by mixed precipitation. The warmer scenario would certainly open the door for some rainfall late next week. This February 3rd to February 5th period is the only that looks especially threatening. Beyond the February 5th, colder weather should return and the storm track does favor additional chances for snow.

Some light and fluffy snow early Tuesday and storm speculation for the upcoming weekend

 A few inches Sunday night and a few more possible very early Tuesday but we've yet to lock our next big storm down though the potential is certainly there. New England has been in the line of arctic fire this January and is set to record the coldest winter month since the legendary February 2015. The average certainly was lowered by the widespread outbreak of 20 below temperatures that hit the valley Saturday morning. We had perfect conditions for the exceptionally cold morning with a strong arctic high pressure center ensuring clear skies and light winds atop the fresh blanket of last week's snow. 

Tuesday's clipper isn't expected to develop into anything exceptional but there's enough moisture for a bit of snow beginning around midnight Tuesday and persisting off and on into the early dawn. After that we should be able to take advantage of some limited low level instability and procure a few more snow showers before cold and more stable air arrives by late afternoon. Snowfall accumulations will be in the 3-6 range and of the low density, elevation sensitive variety.  Tuesday's temperatures may reach the 20's very briefly on the mountain but will again plummet back to sub-zero levels by Wednesday morning. We then can expect bluebird weather both Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday is blustery with temperatures hovering around zero during the day on the mountain and Thursday will start with readings near 20 below again but that sunshine will help boost temperatures up past 10 degrees during the afternoon. 

I have no idea how plugged in any of my readers are to the weather twitter universe and all that it entails. In the winter there is no shortage of storm speculation and sharing of model output that is illustrating extreme outcomes. The upcoming weekend weather situation is one classic such example since various models have rather inconsistently advertised a blockbuster nor'easter around the time of Saturday, January 28th.  The weather map around that time frame consists of some subtropical moisture off the coast and benign clipper system diving southeast in the polar jet. There are actually two polar impulses (one Friday and one Saturday) that will get a chance to detonate this potential storm. At the time of this blog post, it's Friday's clipper that is expected to perform the magic but most of the action stays offshore according to current model consensus. This has been a very fluid and ever-changing situation with model output showing a wide range of scenarios and only recently has there been a trend to steer the storm away from interior New England. Though we've got a less than 50 percent chance of scoring something big for the upcoming weekend (late Friday/Saturday), its certainly still well above zero so stay tuned. Yet another system later Sunday into Monday marks another snowfall possibility although this storm might stay well south of Vermont. 

I've been at odds with a few very respected meteorologists in the northeast regarding the outlook in early February and maybe February in general. Actually, I am in agreement that temperatures modify somewhat but I am not expecting much above normal temperatures and think winter will maintain its grip on Vermont most of the time over the next several weeks. Forecasters suggesting a very warm February are keying in on the European Weekly model output and a combination of several teleconnection indices that will turn slightly unfavorable although as of this posting, it is only the NAO that is expected to be adverse in 2 weeks. For me, I see this as a good opportunity to take the Euro Weekly product head on. I am less excited to go head to head with Ryan Hanrahan who's a terrific TV Met out of Hartford, CT and is a great follow on twitter  @ryanhanrahan and always has something of value to add to the social media weather discussion. 

Speaking more on the long range, it appears temperatures will stay on the chilly side or at least close to normal through the middle part of next week (around Feb 2). At that point there's a chance a well organized system brings moisture and overrunning wintry precipitation to interior New England including significant snowfall. There's also a signal for warmer weather in the wake of this storm during the February 3rd and 4th period but this appears temporary and the magnitude of any such warmup is uncertain. Continued blocking north of the Eurasian continent will be a big force on the weather pattern globally and help keep arctic air very entrenched over North America in early February. Though some of this cold will shift west in two weeks, I fully expect some arctic chill to remain across the Great Lakes and New England and this is basis for my normalish non-torchy February outlook. We will soon find out.

Cold with just some light snow potential Sunday but softer cold next week brings with it snowfall potential on 2 occasions

 So the polar vortex will steer clear of the United States this weekend and through much of next week, preferring instead to hang out on the eastern shore of the Hudson Bay, well up into Quebec. This isn't entirely unexpected but it is a slight shift north verses some previous expectations and both the intensity and coverage of the cold in eastern North America appears a little less impressive. All that said, Vermont still appears very cold through much of next week, but with the polar jet forecasted to be a bit further north, at least one decent snowfall possibility is coming into view on Tuesday the 25th. 

Meanwhile, the bluebird weather that dominated Vermont through Thursday afternoon is expected to continue through Friday along with mostly sub-zero temperatures on the mountain. Winds are not expected to be the factor they were late last Friday and into Saturday so from the standpoint of wind chill, it won't feel quite as cold. This is especially the case this Saturday when a healthy dose of sunshine should warm temperatures from 15 below all the way to 15 above with gentle wind speeds. More clouds and some light snow return return for Sunday as arctic is reinforced by late in the day. We have a small window here for some Champlain induced powder Sunday but the incoming airmass is, again, pretty stable by nature and we should expect conditions to dry out quickly with subzero readings and clear blue skies greeting us Monday morning. 

The weather map this coming Tuesday consists of a strong incoming shot of arctic chill and a potent clipper system in the eastern Great Lakes. Add to all this , a small but potentially not so insignificant subtropical feature along the Gulf Coast. With the polar jet backing off some earlier projections, there are several possibilities that emerge with the most probable and most benign being some lighter snows from the clipper system followed by another round of intense cold. The two more exciting scenarios involve the clipper or the subtropical feature going bombs away and depositing more much needed snow on the northeast before exiting. Following a couple of very cold and dry days, there is another chance for a potential east coast event as often happens when the polar jet retreats but arctic cold remains entrenched over eastern North America. 

I've heard some social media talk this week about a sharp warm-up as we move into the month of February. Undoubtedly, there are some changes to the weather pattern stemming from the positive turn of the AO and a retrograding jet stream that will allow western North American ridge to migrate west into the northeast Pacific and Alaska. Temperatures are certainly likely to modify but I am not convinced we are headed toward some torchy gloom for a few reasons. The positive AO turn is significant but not especially strong and a blocking ridge appears to be a long term fixture above the Eurasian continent and above and somewhat aligned with the broad ridging over Alaska. Additionally, the mid-latitude Pacific continues to look pretty favorable and is not exhibiting a tendency that would drive arctic air nearly clean off the North American continent or even into some deep high latitude retreat. The pattern, in fact, should consist of plenty of arctic chill both in the western United States, more broadly in Canada and to a lesser extent, the Great Lakes and New England. The recent stretch of cold has also mitigated if not eliminated some of the warm feedbacks that we were contending with last month. The Hudson Bay is frozen, the Great Lakes have some ice coverage and the coastal Atlantic is not as warm (in a relative sense) as it was earlier in the season.

One day of comfortable temps Wednesday and then the deep freeze begins !

Before proceeding with today's outlook, lets raise a glass to another great MLK storm now in the books. This storm defied a lot of conventional wisdom (lets be honest, all weather does) especially considering that the low pressure center tracked right over Vermont and we didn't get cheated on moisture, didn't warm past the freezing mark and didn't sleet ! We did eventually get the dry slot after 13 inches, but I wasn't one to complain given how dire the snow situation has been around here. What a terrific over-performance ! 

Wednesday's clipper system will, unfortunately, not be as kind as the storm on MLK day. As mentioned previously, we are in the wrong quadrant of this system. After a chilly, near zero-degree morning, we can expect clouds and some minimal light snow to give way to some afternoon sunshine and an accompanying milder southwest wind. Temperatures will approach 30 on the mountain and are likely to sneak above the freezing mark in lower lying valley locations. Enjoy the balmy temperatures because frigid temperatures are very, very incoming ! 

A widespread outbreak of arctic air in eastern North America will make its Vermont arrival on Thursday. Temperatures are likely to hover around 10 degrees on the mountain early Thursday before plummeting to near zero by evening. We have a favorable wind direction for Champlain powder on Thursday but the airmass is too stable to allow for even shallow convection. We thus should get bluebird conditions from midday onward and this should continue into Friday with lesser amounts of wind. Thanks to our fresh blanket of snow, both Friday and Saturday morning could see readings down around 15 or even 20 below but after Thursday, winds will not be a huge factor through the weekend. As far as snowfall is concerned, the dry period should extend from Thursday through Saturday. There's some risk for a decent snowfall in southern New England Saturday but this remains just a possibility even for them and for us it appears very unlikely. All that said, the Atlantic remains a source of relative warmth and even a small fuse has the capability of going bombs away. One such chance for this comes in the Sunday/Monday time frame as a clipper system arrives and attempts to gather steam along the NE coast. At the very least we should see some light snow out of this and a light accumulation before frigid temperatures are again reinforced Monday. 

We don't expect the polar vortex to drop completely into the U.S. next week but it will get pretty close, swinging through central Quebec during the middle part of next week. With it comes a massive surge of chill that should arrive either late Tuesday or Wednesday (25th/26th) bringing with it the coldest temps we see this winter season and perhaps in a few years. Before the mother-load of cold arrives, another innocuous looking system could spread some snow into parts of New England and possibly strengthen into something bigger before quickly exiting. 

The cold pattern, fueled by a softer Pacific ocean and strong ridging in western North America should carry us through the rest of January but there are some signs of softening as the first day of February arrives. The biggest change relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which is expected to take a positive turn by the end of next week. Ridging in western North America is also expected to shift back toward Alaska which should open the door for more storminess for the western ski resorts as the end of January arrives. The cold weather should relent by the very end of the month in New England but the pattern doesn't look mild thanks to the continuation of favorable jet stream conditions in the Pacific. A slight softening of this very amplified pattern will actually serve our big storm prospects well since a full-on arctic onslaught does have the propensity to suppress interior New England storminess.

Minimal sleet for MLK storm should get us into the 10-16 range

 Though not a perfect storm for us, another MLK storm will come through with some much needed snow. The track of this very strong storm is less than ideal, basically right over us, but the push of low and mid level warm air, though quite powerful, should fall just short of bringing temperatures up past the freezing mark at critical layers of the atmosphere. Moderate and occasionally heavy snow will begin before dawn Monday and continue into early afternoon before the dry slot gets us. I still think snow can mix with sleet occasionally but this wont be the dominant precipitation type. 

After a several hour lull, we should see terrain enhanced snow envelope the northern Green’s and continue through a good part of Monday night into early Tuesday before conditions dry out and sunshine returns accompanying blustery but tolerable temperatures. Snowfall looks a bit better overall because of the lesser amounts of sleet. Let’s call it 6-10 by early afternoon Monday and then another elevation sensitive 4-6 Monday night into early Tuesday. The 10-16 storm total would certainly be our best of the year ! 

We have more bitterly cold temperatures on the way but those don’t arrive until Thursday. Wednesday should feel downright balmy relative to this past weekend and the approaching arctic front still brings with it the possibility of more snow Wednesday night. Unfortunately it looks like we are in the wrong jet quadrant for this and snow totals by Thursday will be minimal. 

Bitterly cold temperatures follow for late Thursday and continue through the weekend. Coastal New England and the Mid Atlantic have a chance for a storm Saturday and the rest of the area gets their chance Monday the 24th. The Atlantic remains a tinderbox for storms but the polar jet will be potent enough to suppress some activity and also make it difficult for models to fully resolve beyond a few days out. The pattern continues to look good through the rest of January with a very cold period between the 21st to 27th with the arctic pattern softening some thereafter. Enjoy the storm folks, it’s been a long wait ! 

Latest on the MLK storm and a cold, wintry finish to January

Bitterly cold temperatures were a little delayed Friday morning but not denied with readings plunging rapidly into the single numbers across northern Vermont Friday evening. Expect temperatures to remain mostly below zero Saturday across the northern Vermont high country with strong winds (especially at the summits) continuing through early afternoon before subsiding by the evening. A much calmer day can be expected Sunday with sunshine warming temperatures into the teens by the afternoon. If you appreciate some of the big visibility winter days like I do, then Sunday comes highly recommended. 

The latest on the MLK storm is as follows. The storm is a really nice base-building type event but I would not expect epic snowfall amounts. It's close but, it's just not that type of storm. The already very mature cyclone will move from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina Piedmont on Sunday and subsequently move northward while fighting to establish a coastline presence. The elongated low pressure center will pass pretty far west (as far as nor'easter's go), perhaps even through western Mass and up over the Upper Connecticut River Valley.  Followers of the blog (and of weather in general) know that this is less than optimal though not disastrous. The MRV is well positioned to get a deep plume of moisture early Monday but also positioned to get challenged with warmer marine air along with a dry slot. Expect snow to begin and become quite heavy for a time early Monday (lets give a start time of 6 am) with several inches of accumulation before precipitation mixes with and possibly even changes to sleet. If the track of the storm follows or even shifts west of this trajectory, the push of low level warmth is powerful enough to change the precip type to rain very briefly though I am of the opinion that this happens in the form of drizzle and during the period where the dry slot has overtaken much of northern Vermont. The snow and some sleet that arrives on Monday will be of the very dense Atlantic variety. It won't be glop or sierra cement but any mixing with sleet will very much weigh it down. I really enjoy reading Scott Braaten's analysis especially when he talks about dendrite growth and how it relates to snow consistency. I think he would agree with my assessment here but check him out on facebook for confirmation. After a several hour lull, the snow should return during the evening and continue at a lighter rate but of a much fluffier consistency into early Tuesday.  

I remain a bit uncertain about the sleet mixing (midday Monday) as of Friday evening. A couple of runs of the high resolution model are aggressively blasting milder air into Vermont but these simulations have their limitations out past 48 hours. Both major global models continue to suggest a primarily snow event although it is close. I point this out because it is of material consequence when it comes to predicting snowfall amounts. Sleet is highly dense in nature, snowfall is not and sleet can weigh down already fallen snow. With all of this in mind, I am sticking with the 8-16 prediction for the time being with 4-10 very dense inches falling early Monday and 4-6 fluffier inches falling Monday evening, night and into Tuesday. Accumulations will be elevation sensitive, especially during our 2nd dose of snowfall.

Expect fairly typical January-like temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday with a sharp and very intense surge of arctic chill approaching Wednesday evening. We have another shot at a few inches of snow on Wednesday as the arctic boundary approaches and some additional terrain enhanced powder is possible Thursday but the this surge of low level cold is powerful enough to stabilize the low level environment pretty quickly by late in the day. Friday into next Saturday looks like a freezer across all of New England, Vermont especially with plenty of sub-zero readings during the overnights and readings struggling into the single numbers during the day. 

The outlook continues to look quite cold, especially during the period beginning Thursday January 20th and persisting through at least January 28th or so. We can expect to hear talk of the polar vortex which should be in the vicinity of Vermont at least once during this period. Such a pattern can suppress storms to the south but there are signs of both clippers and even a more organized coastal system in between arctic shots of cold next weekend. It's January and it will certainly feel like it for the duration of the month.

MLK storm now very likely though track is still uncertain with favorable pattern now firmly in control through end of month

So much winter weather to discuss in this update with a favorable pattern now firmly in control through the duration of the month. For good reason, we got our eyes fixed on the potential storm on MLK day but there's plenty of weather before that worth knowing about. Arctic air has retreated into eastern Canada but is expected to slam into interior New England again on Friday. Clouds and some very sporadic very light snow can be expected for Thursday with comfortable temperature readings and tolerable wind speeds. Snow will intensify just enough for a light accumulation late Thursday or Thursday evening as the clash between a big storm well offshore and a strong arctic high in Ontario strengthens. That arctic chill will plunge directly into Vermont on Friday and with some very strong northerly winds that will only increase as the day goes on. Temperatures will start in the high teens and likely end the day in the single numbers and with well below zero wind chills. There have been stronger areas of arctic cold to impact Vermont, but when cold enters the state directly from Quebec, it can be especially intense and since this surge is accompanied by ferocious winds, especially at the summit, it is certainly worth nothing. Expect actual temps to be close to -10 Saturday morning with wind gusts reaching 40 mph or more at the summits. I don't make any calls on wind holds since individual lifts can be overly sensitive to certain wind directions but I would not be surprised to see a few. Winds will diminish rapidly Saturday night and a calm day on Sunday will make it feel dramatically warmer. Saturday afternoon temps are likely to stay below zero with wind and Sunday will be closer to 15 with some sunshine and hardly any wind. We still expect little snowfall through Sunday except for perhaps an inch or two late Thursday and whatever falls then will become very compressed and windblown by midday Friday. 

We have broken many snow droughts over the years on MLK day. Off the top of my head I remember significant snow occurring in 2007, 2009, 2015, 2019 and last year so it might be a little matchup between destiny and a recent run of bad luck.  In the case of this year, the blog has, for a while now, made mention of the storm potential during this period, but model data was intent on taking this action offshore when the last update was posted. Since then, there has been a dramatic shift northwest with a storm that looks like a southern streamer, but actually enters the continent in coastal BC. This storm looks dramatically more amplified when it begins to interact with the Atlantic Ocean after already entraining substantial amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. By late Sunday, situation appears like a classic "Miller A" noreaster with an already strong storm getting another charge from some incoming polar energy. Though the slightly negative NAO has certainly helped with the recent trend, the storm is still a fast mover and the track has not yet been set. The northwest shift has been so dramatic over the last 36 hours that we are now asking it to stop. Several operational models are actually taking the storm west of what we would consider an optimal track, which would limit our snowfall to more disappointing range. Recent ensemble data has begun to exhibit some consistency however (of a fairly optimal track) and I thus cautiously optimistic. We need to fully iron out some of  the wrinkles in the forecast data before many details become clear, but it does appear that it will stay dry through Sunday evening with snow arriving Monday morning. From that point, we need the storm track to pass between Boston and the Cape for snowfall totals to reach a foot-plus. A track west of Boston and we will likely see a thump of snow, maybe even some sleet and then a dry slot and if the storm stays east of the Cape then we start to limit available moisture. 

Behind the storm we can expect some snow showers Monday night and a few days of comfortable temperatures before another surge of colder weather arrives sometime late in the week. This next surge of cold around the Thursday the 20th time frame is also the next chance for some snow. A big surge of arctic air is then expected across all of eastern North America between January 22 (Saturday) and January 27th. It's been a while but we finally got a favorable Pacific jet to align with a ridge (+PNA regime) in western North America. It will mean some big time arctic chill and it also means that we shift the storm track south. New snowfall will have to come from more moisture-starved clippers and limited terrain enhanced snow.

Bitterly cold temperatures dominate the forecast picture (strong winds Fri/Sat) for MLK weekend but outlook looks unfortunately less snowy

Chilly January weather pattern continues to be the headline but our desperate search for significant natural snow endures for this week and, in all likelihood, through most of the holiday weekend as well. Snow showers and a few snow squalls associated with the strongest push of arctic air so far this season were confined to southern Vermont Monday while low level stability has taken control across northern Vermont and will maintain control through Tuesday. We get a big visibility, bone chilling, bluebird day Tuesday but with temperatures generally staying below zero on the mountain and only slightly above zero in low lying areas. Feisty winds will continue through the middle part of the day before subsiding Tuesday evening. 

Temperatures will modify, temporarily for Wednesday and Thursday as a large storm strengthens off the Atlantic Coast. We've seen this happen on a few occasions this winter and its hurt our ability to procure a normal allotment of terrain enhanced snow. In spite of this, incoming polar energy is expected to allow for an inverted trough set up and an area of  light snow across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains on Thursday. Models are not especially bullish on snow amounts but a light accumulation is still my expectation. The polar energy is expected to further fuel the offshore storm and usher another area of dry arctic chill into New England for the weekend. Though the forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday is certainly quite cold, it also appears much drier thanks to northwest flow aloft and storminess that is now expected to track well to our south on Saturday. We should see plenty of sunshine through early Sunday but once again, no new snow. I might point out that the strengthening offshore storm on Friday combined with a strong arctic high over Ontario means very windy conditions will accompany the single digit daytime temperatures. Northerly winds at the summits will be in the 30-40 mph range and will only slightly subside on Saturday. Measured in terms of wind chill, the upcoming weekend will be one of the coldest since the arctic outbreak in early 2018 so plan accordingly.

Chances for new snow do increase next week beginning as early as MLK day with additional chances for the ensuing week. The pattern appears decidedly chilly next week but the bitterly cold air from this weekend is expected to modify while disturbances moving quickly through the polar jet stream will present opportunities for snowfall. There are actually several different scenarios that would include some snowfall for the Vermont high country and though most of them consist of lighter snowfall amounts, there remains the chance for something more significant. The jet stream is likely to undergo a more significant amplification late in the week and in addition to the snow chance, the chances for another round of bitterly cold arctic outbreak increase. Ensembles show a pretty clear signal for some extreme cold in the Great Lakes and New England around January 24 which is the Monday of the last full week of January.

Incoming cold pattern sets up Vermont for an wintry rest of January and some Marvin Gaye music

Temperature profiles reveal a rather unique scenario in the Mad River Valley on Sunday. A warm layer aloft is strong enough to allow for a sleet/freezing mixture, but as temperatures gradually warm toward the freezing mark at the surface, that same warm layer will disappear allowing all precipitation to change to snow. So its freezing rain and sleet with temperatures in the 20's during the morning and light snow with temperatures in the 30's during the midday and afternoon hours. With precipitation both light and sporadic, accumulations will also be on the light side and be in the 1-2 inch range but we need all contributions at this point so giddy-up. 

More generally, I am excited about this pattern over the next few weeks. We've had to wait a few years, but we finally tamed the Pacific for an extended period and some persistent and steady cold will be the result across New England. If temperatures sneak above the freezing mark in a few areas on Sunday it may be the last time it happens for several weeks in northern Vermont. We got a good burst of cold arriving Monday as a small taste of what is to come. We could use a little more snow to accompany the incoming chilly air but it looks like the lower troposphere will stabilize after maybe an inch or so from snow showers Sunday night. Bluebird weather prevails by late Monday and continues into Tuesday accompanying plenty of sub-zero readings. Temperatures moderate Wednesday afternoon with a chance for some light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

I whined about the +NAO regime during the last update and maybe that's what it took for some help to arrive. Some weakening in the jet stream in the area south of Greenland next weekend sets up for a potentially interesting scenario where storminess appears stuck out over the coastal Atlantic. Incoming polar energy could very well light the fuse for something but models are understandably inconsistent as to exactly what that something might be. My over/under for snow in the MRV MLK weekend is certainly not set at zero however and would probably range between 5-10 inches. Lets let this simmer for another few days and see what surfaces. The home-run outcome is out there but there are several other lesser outcomes that could also prove productive. 

The pattern is aligning beautifully for cold weather in the two weeks following MLK which encompasses most of the rest of January. A weakened jet in the Pacific combined with an elongated ridge stretching from western North America through parts of the arctic should open the pipeline for continuous arctic chill. The storm track will be pushed farther south but water temps in the western Atlantic create an inciting and inviting environment for storms. Lake Champlain is also no where close to freezing which creates steady opportunities for terrain enhanced snow. With that, I will leave you with this Marvin Gaye classic just because... 

Marvin

Vermont misses out on most of Friday's action but pattern looks very supportive for more cold and snow for at least the next two weeks

 Recent model data has indeed shifted the track of Friday's storm north and west but it's a simple case of too little too late. It assures coastal areas will see a decent snowfall including more snowfall in parts of the Mid-Atlantic but northern Vermont will only see a period of light snowfall and accumulations of an inch or two with the "two" more likely across the high country. This might be a decent setup for some terrain enhanced snowfall but an organized storm off the coast has the effect minimizing such activity in the outer periphery. It's more bad luck for interior New England but the pattern through mid January continues to look fundamentally wintry and supportive for more chances at natural snow. 

Saturday appears to be a beautiful January day with increasing amounts of sunshine (after some morning flurries) and excellent visibility. It will be cold and blustery for a while (near 15 degrees for actual temps) but this is nothing we aren't used to. Clouds make a return for Sunday and winds will turn southwesterly and increase in speed but temperatures are not expected to be especially mild and are only expected to reach or exceed the freezing mark in valley locations. Precipitation is likely on Sunday but not a lot is expected and temperature profiles suggest snow as precipitation type although it remains close enough to keep watching. 

We haven't enjoyed a real old fashioned New England blast of cold in a while and with the slower than average Hudson Bay freeze, we had to wait a bit this winter but it's coming behind a cold front on Monday. We can expect flurries, snow showers and maybe a snow squall during the day and then temperatures plummet well below zero Monday night. Temperatures around the Mt Washington elevation appear to be about -30 C  or -22 F which is pretty impressive, even for them. That bitterly cold, stable arctic environment sets up Vermont for a bluebird day on Tuesday but temperatures across the high country are likely to stay sub-zero through the ski day. 

Temperatures will moderate during the day Wednesday and again on Thursday and that process should open the door for a snowfall though its a bit early for specific timing and potential amounts. We then expect the pattern to re-amplify for the weekend of January 15th and 16th thanks to the building +PNA pattern (western North America jet stream ridge). To reiterate from the last update, this marks a big change since the PNA has returned a negative observed index since December 1 leading to the barrage of rain, snow and cold on the west coast. More importantly for us is the improving signal for an east coast storm around the aforementioned weekend.  Can't make any guarantees about big snow but this is likely going to be the next focal point for storm speculation.  It's also MLK weekend and based on a litany of historical results (and absolutely no science) we always seem to break out of snow droughts on this particular holiday. 

Ensembles indicate a nice signature that the ridge across western North America will extend to the pole and allow arctic air flood much of eastern and central North America. The trough axis slightly east of the Mississippi River valley makes the east coast a lightning rod for storm activity although one component we appear to be missing (both with Friday's storm and over the next two weeks) is a negative NAO and this often means weather systems are more quick hitting and have the available escape hatch to the open Atlantic. Still a pattern I would gladly sign up for over many others !

Pattern supports mostly cold weather through mid-January but models have shifted Friday storm farther south and east

 We have a decent January weather pattern in front of us with plenty of cold weather. The big block in the Chukchi Sea (above the Bering Sea) is close to peaking and is the mechanism forcing arctic air southward and over a more expansive area of North America. Meanwhile the Pacific is is expected to remain mostly cooperative marking a big change from prevailing conditions over recent winters. I am not yet convinced it will stay this way for the duration of the winter but I'll take what I can get and wait, like the rest of us, for this weather pattern to pay us some real dividends in the form of natural snow. 

Though the surge of milder temperature will mostly fail to bring temperatures significantly above freezing Wednesday, there is a small amount of moisture expected to skim the state and bring some mixed precipitation (snow or freezing rain) for a few hours in the afternoon. Readings will fall back into the 20's Thursday as we await the gradual formation  and approach of our fast-moving late week winter storm. Over the last few days, model data has shifted the storm south and east out over the ocean and east of Cape Cod. Much of the heaviest snow in such a scenario would be confined to coastal areas. All that said, I expect models to begin showing a more amplified system and to shift the track further north and west over the next 48 hours. It is just very difficult to predict how much and whether this turns out to be the critical difference in bringing at least some heavy snowfall to northern Vermont. As mentioned in the last post, the very warm water along the Mid Atlantic and New England coastline is capable of making a big and last minute impact on the forecast and eventual track of this storm. Within the next day or two, we will find out whether this will play out as such. Either way, this is a fast moving storm with a another New England forecaster calling it a "thump, dump and run" situation (got to give @eweather credit for that one). The snow if it happens, will be tapering too snow showers and flurries by later Friday with clearing expected by Saturday. 

In addition to the potential storm, the forecast over the next week will consist of rapidly changing weather with almost every day featuring differences from its respective yesterday. Saturday will be cold (teens) and begin blustery with flurries and calmer with sunshine. Sunday will cloudier and not nearly as chilly with temperatures approaching the freezing mark. There's moisture accompanying the big surge of milder temperatures on Sunday and this means the chances for rain and freezing rain will increase as the day progresses. Whatever does fall late this weekend will make another quick exit as a strong surge of arctic cold will take it's biggest swing at New England so far this winter. Temperatures will begin to fall Monday, a day likely to feature snow showers and maybe a snows squall ahead of a boundary of very intense chill. Much of Tuesday will feature readings in the single numbers while Tuesday night features readings of close to 10 below. 

As next week continues to progress, we can expect some of the most intense cold to retreat into eastern Canada temporarily. At the same time, the overall weather pattern, which has been very unsettled and snowy in the ski areas out west in recent weeks, will shift with a jet stream ridge building in those same locations. This configuration will focus more of the weather action on the eastern part of North America and opens the door for more snowfall opportunities in New England. If this aforementioned ridge migrates into Alaska as some of the ensembles are suggesting, very cold weather could return beginning around the time of the January 15th-16th weekend.  Our recent bad luck will have to reach epic proportions to get through the next few weeks without some decent snow but when bad luck happens, it happens all at once and doesn't take prisoners.

Arctic chill makes a long awaited return to Vermont and plans to mostly stick around while storm potential continues for Thur/Fri

It was yet another holiday period littered with failures for snow lovers in Vermont. Winter did make a return on Sunday and we got a bit of snow for our troubles but it was another decided under-performance and it's on to January and the center cut portion of our cold season.  And fortunately, we will have some cold to go with our January this go round. It won't measure out as historic but I going to project it will best last year's effort which came in at 2 above average. Last year's version of January was notable for the sustained stretch of sub-freezing temperatures we were able to maintain throughout the month. It would certainly be nice match that effort (more unlikely without -AO help) but more importantly we need the snowfall. 

Though many of the warm water feedbacks I often discuss have been working against us this past month and certainly may have been critical in turning the recent holiday week to mush, the involvement of arctic cold is the ingredient likely to spice up the weather map in our favor. The coastal waters along the eastern seaboard are 3-6 degrees above average and this creates a tinderbox-like environment for big east coast storms when arctic chill is added to the mix. Storms need baroclinicity, or a broad region where cold dry air clashes with warm moist ocean air. The New England coastline has always been a geographically pristine area for such activity and our explosive winter storms have become famous enough to earn the region specific term of nor'easter as a result. In the case of this year, the extra few degrees of relative ocean warmth could create some rather special magic and some of this has already started with a strengthening storm to our south that is expected to deliver portions of the Mid-Atlantic with a fierce bout of snow on very short notice. I am hopeful that this trend continues as we progress toward the later part of this week and a potential storm that could lift us away from the unfortunate morass we found ourselves in over the holiday.

In the meantime, our sunshine finally makes a return Monday as promised. The east coast storm will keep most of the clouds and snowfall well to our south and this means crisp, cold, sunshine for much of the day followed by a cold near zero Monday night. Sunshine may give way to some clouds on Tuesday but it will be another quiet and very average day in northern Vermont. Southwest winds are likely to push temperatures past the freezing mark in valley locations Wednesday but the big Chukchi Sea block is forcing the jet stream to work and will allow large amounts of polar energy to move quickly south and east. Taken in the aggregate, the potential storm which is expected to take shape in the Tennessee Valley Thursday before exploding along the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening has shifted a bit to the south and east. Two of the three major ensembles packages have consistently showed a decent hit for much of interior New England with the holdout being the American GFS which has been in and out of this party all along. Given the delicate nature of any situation involving an amplifying polar jet stream, there's actually a decent amount of support for a hit over much of interior New England though the storm will be fast moving and is not expected to get caught up in the maritimes for any period of time. The extra bit of relative warmth in the coastal Atlantic is a big benefit for Vermont in this setup and it certainly keeps the door open for a stronger storm and the famous northward shift that models often undergo late in the game. The timing of all this appears to be Thursday night into Friday with flurries and snow showers continuing into Friday night. If I could pick an over/under right now on accumulation I would say 6 inches with equal chances of besting or underperforming that number prior to the weekend of the 8th/9th.

Garden variety January chill can be expected for the weekend with blustery conditions persisting into early Saturday followed by a calmer day Sunday. The polar jet will retreat into eastern Canada early next week and is expected to deliver New England another and stronger dose of arctic air by the 11th or 12th of the month but there is some concern that a surge of milder temperatures around the 10th could threaten interior New England with a dose of above-freezing temperatures and mixed precipitation. There are no indications of a major rain event but I would categorize this as a slight risk. After that, we should get some help from the PNA and a Pacific jet that is at least somewhat cooperative. Not a bad outlook overall but it would feel a lot better with some results in the bag and they have proved very elusive so far this season.