Two days is an eternity when trying to sort out details in a forecast such as this one. The forecast continues to trend, mostly in the colder direction and they're a lot of important details to update. It may have been right to get excited this past Sunday but it was a mistake in retrospect to get that detail oriented in a drastically shifting forecast.
The short term snow for Tuesday and Wednesday was a few hours late in arriving yet still on target for a long duration light and powdery snow event for the high country. Though radar shows the heaviest precipitation across southern New England Tuesday afternoon, this will shift Tuesday evening and the synoptic forcing will be better across northern Vermont. By early Wednesday the snow event gets an extension as favorable winds wring out the lingering available moisture and deposit that mostly on the high country. I continue to think this is a 5-10 inch event for areas above 1500 feet and more of a 3-5 inch event in the valley locations. Snow will taper to flurries over the mountains as the ski day concludes and some clearing can be expected Wednesday night.
On Christmas, more clouds in association with a quickly passing disturbance will again bring mostly light snow and a likely burst of heavy snow sometime during the day. In this instance, the snow will be of a shorter duration yet still capable of accumulating 1-3 inches. Like I mentioned in the prior update, the cold behind our Christmas snow is an important part of the holiday outlook. The high pressure center responsible is exclusive to us and it will makes the day after Christmas dramatically colder than what was indicated several days ago. Additionally, it will serve to keep most of the precipitation this upcoming weekend of the frozen variety which is a very important development. All that said, there are some important changes in the Friday to Sunday period. Friday's snow now appears gone. I was a bit too excited about the Euro Ensembles that appeared to lock this over the weekend; instead, the snow appears destined to hit New York City and vicinity while it's possible for a semi bluebird like day in northern Vermont or at least only some innocuous high clouds. It will be blustery and very chilly Friday with temperatures in the single numbers most of the day and wind chills below zero. Just a dramatic turn from what was indicated on the longer range models 4-5 days ago. Both the wind and the cold will abate on Saturday the 27th making for a considerably more comfortable ski day. Temperatures should reach the high teens and wind chills not be as much of a factor. The frozen precipitation appears ear marked for Sunday. The storm in question is not indicated to take a favorable trajectory, but it does show signs it wants to occlude which limits the warming and keeps the door open for a mostly snow event. At the very least, some accumulating snow by the end of the Sunday ski day is probable with a changeover to some sort of wintry mix possible Sunday night. We will need another few days and to illuminate this part of the outlook a bit more.
The entirety of the New Year's holiday week appears colder as of this update and quite dramatically so relative to 5 days ago. The possible wintry mix on Sunday night is the last remaining obstacle, everything else appears to be a snow or nothing situation and temperatures should finish 2025 and begin 2026 in the sub-freezing category. Snow showers now appear likely both Monday and Tuesday with winds appearing more favorable for an accumulation on the latter day. Hints of a bigger snow around New Year's day are back. Were it to happen, it would be from some sort of clipper-like system that blows up into something bigger and better. I would think it's likely that some type of accumulating snow occurs in this period. Enjoy the holiday everyone !
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