For many spots on the mountain, Wednesday marks the end of a 19 day run of sub-freezing temperatures. It began after a Thanksgiving day rainfall and for a few spots close to summit locations, it will continue through late Thursday. Most of this short term period, through Thursday evening is expected to stay dry. Folks may see a bit of wet snow Wednesday evening but little to no accumulation is expected. Breaks in the overcast are expected to time out just right to support temperatures dropping to near 20 for Thursday morning before sunshine and an increasing southerly breeze boost readings up into the 40's Thursday afternoon. We all know about the rain in the forecast. It arrives late Thursday evening and becomes heavy for a short period Friday morning. It's expected to amount to just less than in inch which isn't enough for widespread flooding though it should raise rivers and creeks substantially and melt much of the snow in valley locations. Rain will end Friday afternoon and we can expect snow flurries later in the day. The weekend stays frozen with Saturday being of the cold and blustery variety (readings near 20) while Sunday features moderating temperatures to near 30. A period of light snow is possible Saturday night with little to no accumulation expected once again.
I continue to maintain an optimistic view about the Christmas holiday week. Yes, we have a warm looking weather map for the U.S., yet that warmth is not expected to encroach on Vermont much at all. As we celebrate the winter solstice, arctic cold is expected to send temperatures back toward the single digits for Monday morning December 22nd. That advance of chill is likely accompanied by snow showers capable of providing us a small accumulation of snow. Later Monday should feature some blue sky and this should continue into early Tuesday before clouds from the first of two potential weather producers approach. Snow from the first is most likely late Tuesday and then out by Wednesday. The weather will be too quick moving and the storm (especially the first) not strong enough for a heavy accumulation, but 3-6 inches is certainly in play. A second potential storm on Christmas Day may have a better overrunning setup. It's more than a week out on the forecast timeline making the exact timing and track somewhat of a question mark. I like where we stand right now however and think the weather pattern is very supportive of such an event. Most importantly, and this is an important part of the holiday outlook through 12/26, it should remain below freezing on the mountain throughout. While the "Torchmas" rages across the central part of the country, Vermont should stay out of it barring an unexpected weather pattern shift.
I can't say the above with the same confidence after December 26th. It's possible that we can just carry the Christmas week outlook into the new year. The weather pattern is showing some similarities with interior New England remaining on the fringe of an expected torch in the mid-continent with arctic air in Canada remaining close enough to keep winter in the game. Ensembles are pushing a core of the warmth eastward just a bit after 12/27. Is this enough to push us into more milder weather just before the New Year. It's possible, yet I continue to be of the belief that any thaw will be brief. The AO is expected to be very positive for the remainder of the year and accounts for the aforementioned warm weather. That said, I love the action in the Pacific and I think this prevents a full scale arctic retreat which would be necessary for a muti-day post Christmas blow torch.
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