Thursday turned into an outstanding bluebird day with comfortable temperatures and low wind. Even with readings challenging the freezing mark, the low dewpoints ensure that the snowpack remains mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, the pattern out west has finally allowed for some much needed snowfall and it's been widespread enough to impact multiple states and mountain ranges. Snowfall out west is absolutely vital not only for the water supply but also for electricity generation and it has to happen now since precipitation in many places gets pretty rare by late spring. Though the pattern has turned, favoring more snow out west and less cold in eastern North America, Vermont is set up for a nice snowfall late on Friday and this update serves to clarify what we can expect.
The clear skies are expected to continue through at least part of Thursday night allowing temperatures to drop into the low teens. Friday should then consist of some early sunshine before overcast conditions prevail for a good part of the ski day. Our approaching storm appears a little stronger and its certainly quite a beast for folks living within the vicinity of Lake Superior where blizzard conditions have been reported. For us, a decent plume of overunning moisture is headed in our direction and snow should begin within an hour or so of 6 pm Friday. The snow looks heavier and we can expect healthy snowfall rates throughout the evening and well into the overnight. This makes the upcoming Saturday one of the best ski days of the year with 8-12 inches of fresh powder expected by daybreak and perhaps another 2-3 inches before noon Saturday. Flurries could certainly continue into Saturday afternoon, though it primarily appears cloudy with readings in the low 20's on the mountain and northeast winds gusting 10-20 mph.
A new area of low pressure is expected to form and then strengthen on Sunday eventually moving off the North Carolina coast midday Sunday. This trajectory will keep the snowfall south and west of Vermont on Sunday barring a change. The decaying Great Lakes storm will take up a position in the eastern Great Lakes Sunday and concentrate some light snowfall in that region. Northern New England may actually see some sunshine and this would help boost temperatures from single digit temperatures early in the morning to 30 degrees in the afternoon. The storm will continue to strengthen offshore leaving us with a blustery but seasonable Monday with a mixture of clouds and some limited sun to go along with snow flurries. Tuesday is a slightly colder version of Monday with day time temperatures staying in the teens. Much of the arctic air gets close to New England in this time frame but the core of the cold stays north as it often does with the angrier Pacific jet stream.
A push of milder air in the middle part of the week could once again fail to deliver a meaningful thaw while possibly bringing us some additional snowfall. The end of next week appears colder with a lower risk of any thaw while seasonable temperatures appear more likely. The first 7-10 days of March continues to appear slightly mild, driven mostly by the lack of high latitude blocking and the positive EPO. The signal is glaring enough to suggest a big melt off however and arctic cold in Canada is indicated to be close enough to keep the door open for some snowfall.
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