Took a day and stayed away from looking at any weather. Come back to some terribly obscured details, little model agreement and a complicated 5-day forecast. The one certainty and more dominant theme relates to another successful defense of our winter weather conditions. More specifically, we avoid all the worst components of the upcoming warm weather push and the uncertainty relates mostly to whether or not it will snow in certain periods this week and upcoming weekend and how much.
It's just a mostly cloudy sky for the President's Day Monday with a light wind and temperatures on the mountain near 30 degrees. Valley locations will make a successful pass of the freezing mark, but with low dewpoints and lighter wind speeds, the milder weather won't alter snow conditions over the higher terrain. Same goes for Tuesday which should feature more clouds and some light snow showers. The altitude should prove even more important for Tuesday when valley spots could reach the 40-degree barrier.
Wednesday could have been the day to torch and it won't be. Low level cool air arrives in the nick of time and we situate ourselves on the north side of a temperature boundary that is expected to actually push south as the week progresses. Some clearing is possible late Tuesday with a bit of blue sky lingering into early Wednesday though its a cloudy week overall and most of Wednesday is expected to be such. The question for late Wednesday into Wednesday night relates to snow and whether it occurs and how much. The original Euro model puts us in great spot for some steady snow late Wednesday, setting us up for a powdery Thursday. The consensus of all model output has shifted the snow and precipitation more generally southward leaving us out of the heaviest snowfall. I'll take the tradeoff since the middle part of the week appears to have no wintry mix or rain in the picture and the possibility for accumulating snow continues. Just going to need another day or day and a half to get some additional clarity on the eventual result.
Any snow early Thursday would again give way to some temporary clearing late in the day. Overnight temperatures are then allowed to drop to near 10 for early Friday and then its a big conglomeration of weather approaching for the weekend with more model dissension. The OG Euro which continues to hit us pretty good (as I mentioned) late on Wednesday confines all of the weekend action to our south. It's done this on successive runs which is notable. Other simulations including the newer Euro AI has a substantial hit late Friday and some additional snow late Sunday into Monday thanks to a potential coastal bomb. Some tepid support for this comes from the GFS and to a lesser degree the Canadian simulation. With this update getting way too in the weeds with model output, one can get the gist of the weather for next week. Not mild enough for a big thaw and cold enough to support some new snow and still hard to tell when most of that will fall. Hopefully that makes sense !
Ironically the weather picture for next week or the last 6 days of February seems to be better defined. Some snow or snow showers along with blustery and chilly conditions for Monday. The cold will then linger into Tuesday before another mild threat has emerged for the end of the week. I'll talk more about the outlook for early March in a subsequent update, but I can preface that with the report that we aren't getting a ton of help from the indices right now and and this is not expected to change through the rest of the month. We can thus get a quick burst of chill and certainly get some snow though its harder to sustain colder weather.
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