Thursday's storm isn't coming together the way we would have hoped

 So Sunday ended up being a horrible bust. It was a tricky forecast with the track and nature of the storm continuously shifting and in spite of all that, I was still really surprised at the depth of the warm layer that managed to wedge itself over us during the ski day and change precipitation to rain. I was also surprised that the snow wasn't heavier Sunday morning similar to what we saw late Friday. We didn't get the when the opportunity was there for it and the rain which fell even at high elevations Sunday afternoon was not on my bingo card. Stowe did better as was expected in this latitude sensitive storm and this year in particular they have made the most of that extra latitude, procuring about 100 more inches of snow compared to us.  

Bad news can hit you in streaks sometimes with the Thursday weather event not coming together as I would have hoped.  In the meantime, most of Wednesday continues to look sub-freezing on the mountain. Early morning flurries won't amount to much and the rest of the day will feature some clouds, minimal amounts of blue sky and calm winds. The Thursday system is coming at us in a few pieces and the first of those pieces just tracks too far north with credit to the GFS for showing a version of that several days ago. This puts us in the mild southwesterly flow category of the storm early Thursday with temperatures rising into the 40's. There's an area of precipitation associated with that milder push of air that could fall as some snow and then mix if it hits early enough late Wednesday night. I don't think temperature profiles support frozen precipitation by first tracks time Thursday and much of the ski day will just be cloudy with a break in the precipitation. More rain  is expected Thursday evening (mostly after the ski day) and a strong push of cold Thursday night might arrive prior to end of this precipitation changing it to a short period of snow before conditions dry out. Friday is a sub-freezing day on the mountain with clouds breaking for some later day sunshine along with some gusty winds. 

The weekend continues to appear sub-freezing cold and both weekend days should at least some sunshine. Saturday in particular should start out very bluebird with readings near 10 and then clouds and even some flurries or snow showers are possible in the afternoon. Any clouds on Sunday are a result of the warm advection coming in response to the ever shifting weather pattern. Any residual chill Monday morning appears to more quickly get swept away by incoming milder air as a large ridge begins it's extended stay on the east coast. This means we should expect most of the period between the afternoon of March 30th and Sunday April 5th (Easter) to be above freezing and very significantly so on a few days. Operational models are suggesting that marine air keeps clouds around and temperatures in check on a few of the days in this period with some rain in the middle of the week. How much rain or cool marine air do we see is a question yet it's unlikely to alter the above normal temperature forecast.