Decent round of snow coming late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a potential problematic January thaw

Being that January is the coldest climatological month of the winter season, it becomes a bit easier to generate respectable doses of winter even in the more marginal weather patterns. One can certainly make the case that Vermont snowfall often benefits from the more marginal setup while the pattern that overwhelms the region with arctic cold can leave the state with shallow stable cold that limits snow shower activity while the ferocity of the polar jet stream won't allow storms to get any northward momentum. Arctic air  has a pretty firm grip on the Mad River Valley as of early 2026 but Pacific is up to its old mischief and is prepared to send the cold into retreat mode for the upcoming week. We should pick up some snowfall before any thaw commences, but January 10th continues to appear like a real problem. 

No concerns over mild weather for the remainder of the weekend obviously. Blustery winds on the slopes and temperatures near 10 both days. Clouds and some snow flurries are likely Saturday and then a subtropical system should suck much of the cloudiness away for Sunday leaving us with a cold, bluebird type day to finish off our holiday period. Diminishing winds, clear skies and the snow cover will allow a few spots to reach 10 below for Monday morning and we won't have enough sun during the ensuing daylight hours to exceed the 10 above barrier during the afternoon. 

As I mentioned, the mild air is preparing to make a big push in our direction. Warm advection clouds should advance into the region during the day Monday and light snow will fall out of those clouds later Monday into Monday night. Temperatures are expected to then moderate Tuesday, reaching the 20's and then an even heavier dose of overrunning, warm advection style snowfall is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Successive model runs are beginning to lock into this scenario and it certainly presents Wednesday as a really excellent chance to enjoy a bit of powder ahead of some problematic weather. 

 Thursday, the 8th of January, is certainly showing up as one of those milder days though it appears dry and readings on the mountain should not stray too far from the freezing mark. On Friday, the risk for some rainfall rises as a storm organizes in the middle of the the country while moisture out ahead of the low pressure area begins to encroach on the region. This is a bad looking jet stream and in a normal winter, we typically have to endure a few of these during the winter season. I can still envision a scenario where we could tap dance around a worse case scenario. This would involve arctic air making some sort of push into the region prior to the weekend of the 10th and 11th and undercutting the whale of an east coast ridge expected to build after January 8th. This remains possible while the worst case scenario of 50-plus temperatures, wind and rain is also quite possible. We should get some clarity as to what is most likely within the next 2-3 days 

The weather pattern in the wake of whatever happens on January 10th certainly appears better though not a home run. We continue to expect dramatic improvements in jet stream activity in the Pacific and eventually a large ridge is expected to build in the extreme eastern Pacific Ocean extending northward into Alaska. This is a very typical La Nina setup and one that should light up the weather map with some interesting events.  It will be difficult to chill what has been a very warm southeastern United States in this set up and it will also take some time to rebuild the core of cold in Canada that powered us to the coldest December in 25 years. The colder air across the north battling it out with those milder temperatures in the southeast represent the core ingredients for what could be some interesting events for us. 

 

Cold weather holds through January 6th, and a big hurdle has emerged for the 2nd full weekend of the month

Happy 2026 Mad River Glen skiers. Wintry temps and some light and fluffy snowfall kick off the year in a positive way. I wish I could carry that positive energy throughout this update, but we got some challenges in early January that have arisen. We still have a cold weekend and some sunshine and good visibility to accompany that. Snowfall in the short term (after what falls on New Year's Day) appears pretty minimal. Snow showers late Friday and Friday night will amount to an inch or two and then some rare La Nina subtropical energy gets a storm going this weekend across the south. That system will make a run up the coast but fall well short of bringing snow into Vermont. The result will be some cold and fair weather with subzero overnight low temperatures and low teens in the afternoon. Winds will be a factor so dress appropriately though not unusually strong. 

The cold, dry weather should continue through Monday, January 5th and then we have the increased risk for some warm advection style snowfall. Models are not indicating significant amounts though I expect this forecast to evolve some as we approach the period in question. Right now the best chance for heavier snow comes as we enter the middle of the week period around January 6th and 7th. The period beginning January 8th and ending January 11th all appear warmer and represent the more concerning part of the outlook. Not every day will be a torch, but ensembles have clearly opened the door for a significant thaw as the temporarily energized Pacific makes it more difficult for arctic cold to stand its ground. Still a window of opportunity for some changes and I certainly expect some. As of now however, the most problematic day might occur around January 10th which could feature rain, 40-plus temperatures and some mild snow eating winds.  Certainly, frustrating to watch a potential period of snow storminess go in this direction 

The outlook continues to show promise beyond January 10th. The jet stream in the Pacific which will become fiery to start 2026, appears to relax around January 10th allowing a more favorable weather pattern to take shape.  We might need to work to reestablish a pool of cold across Canada. That said, it's January and it doesn't take much during the climatologically coldest period of the season. 

Just some lighter snows to accompany more New England cold for the rest of our holiday period while early 2026 looks very promising

A mixed ice and cold rain event gave us a pretty good punch on Monday. The lack of wind and near freezing temperatures allowed the coverage and depth of snow on the mountains to hold up very well and it certainly solidifies an early season foundation ahead of future, better events. That said, the layer of crust will be undeniable until we get that future snow. 

Colder air is reestablishing itself over New England and skiers can expect a blustery Tuesday with temperatures generally in the single numbers. Yes, we have the instability for a few snow showers and we if we could align the winds properly, we might procure several needed inches. Winds appear too westerly though for a big accumulation so we are likely destined for a deluxe dust on crust situation with 1-2 inches. Some drifting of that minimal powder will make the softer snow a bit deeper in favored areas of a trail if you're really hungry. 

Different kind of day can be expected New Year's Eve with lighter winds and a milder flow of air in a relative sense that will allow temps near the base to inch toward the 20 degree mark. We also have a clipper system associated with a reinforcing push of arctic cold. This weak and disorganized system is positioned to provide us with a bit of snow but is just getting overpowered by the mid-winter polar jet and won't be allowed to reach any form of greatness before departing. Still, we can expect some light snow to begin during the ski day and become steady for a time during the evening. The fluffy nature of the snowfall should assist us into the 2-5 inch range prior to first tracks on New Year's Day unless this area of low pressure can  find some late 4th quarter magic and gain a bit more potency. We can then expect a cold New Year's Day with more single digit temperatures. The wind does not appear as ferocious as Tuesday and the shallow stable nature of the late week cold should allow for a period of sunshine Thursday. More sun should allow the sub-zero temperatures Friday to climb up  into the teens before clouds advance back into the region later in the day. 

The clouds late on Friday are expected to eventually deliver a bit more light snow to us Friday night ahead of another very chilly weekend. Once again, New England, which has been the center of coldest weather this past month, will be near the center once again. Temperatures both days will only get to about 10 degrees on the mountain with readings below zero at night. Saturday appears to have 10-20 mph winds while the winds on Sunday will be a bit quieter. Sunshine should make an appearance both days with Sunday looking a little brighter right now.

As a whole, January looks more promising and some of the ominous indications during the first week of January are now gone. Interestingly, ensembles indicate a loss of jet stream support in the Pacific. We've had the benefit of a relatively soft jet stream most of this month. As this happens however, we get saved by the development of a large downstream block in the Jet Stream over Greenland. This makes the weather next week look very interesting and ensures that we will extend the stretch of above freezing temperatures which will begin Monday night. Two potential snow events are showing up in those initial 10 days of January. The first is a lighter event around January 2nd and then some big storm potential around the 8th and 9th of January. The jet stream in the Pacific is then expected to soften again for the middle of January which would suggest we could be in line for another exceptional start to 2026. 

 

Wintry temps and some snow over the next 10 days around a cold Monday rain/ice situation

80-90 percent of the United States was experiencing above normal temperatures on both Christmas Day and the day after Christmas Day.  The warmth is especially notable in Colorado where they are finishing an absolutely miserable snow month. Many ski areas haven't had any in weeks and the base of Aspen Mountain so a heavy Christmas Day rain shower with temperatures in the mid 40's. Stuff like that doesn't happen often anywhere in Colorado above 8,000 feet during winter. Vermont almost always has to endure some December rain, but only a minimal amount in 2025 and a very cold Friday 12/26 is helping to power the state to it's coldest last month of the year since 2000. 

We've got one challenging weather situation early on Monday 12/29 and I have more details to provide on that in the subsequent paragraph. Until then, we've got a weekend with very wintry temperatures and lighter winds. NYC has a beautiful post Christmas Snow on Friday night. This storm is getting fueled by the intense temperature gradient created by the presence of arctic air over the northeast U.S. and the warmth trying to push east over the Ohio Valley. Mad River Glen will get a small taste of this snow early Saturday morning, about an inch in total and then those clouds will give way to a bit of later afternoon blue skies Saturday. The clearing will set the stage for a sub-zero Saturday night and then a comfortable Sunday with readings climbing into the 20's along with light winds. Sunday will feature several  hours of sunshine along with excellent visibility. A real winner if you enjoy that sort of thing as I do. 

The Monday situation is hardly enjoyable and I really thought we had earned a better outcome on this one. Perhaps later in the season, the arctic air would be capable of more pushback and we are reminded again that early season storms can really be unforgiving.  This storm will provide some snowfall to the northern Rocky Mountain ski areas and then proceed to strengthen as it reaches southwest Michigan Sunday evening. By Monday morning it will be well into Quebec, pumping warm and moist air northward into interior New England. Sometimes, we can survive these kind out comes with a fresher supply of arctic cold. Front end snow can pile up and before a minimal period of mixing/rain and this was an possibility certainly alive a few days ago. Now, it appears any snow and mixed precipitation will quickly become freezing rain or rain and persist on and off for much of the day. Temperatures will stay close to the freezing mark and I think we steer clear of any strong winds and this limits the melting. Still, rain is rain and certainly an unfortunate part of another holiday season. 

The wintry finish to the holiday period remains !  It begins with some light snow Monday night following the unfortunate round of wet weather I mentioned. That light snow is then expected to become heavier snow showers Tuesday. That setup on Tuesday appears better for snow in areas from Stowe northward to Jay, but the winds become decently aligned for a bit of action for us as well. The snow showers on Tuesday will be accompanied by temperatures in the teens and this should carry through New Year's Eve when less snow is expected. Arctic air is expected to make a more significant push into New England on New Year's Day and additional snow is expected to accompany this. Right now, there are no indications of a bigger storm that will materialize here though I continue to watch for it. We do know that New Year's Day and the 2nd of January will be chilly. This will carry through the weekend and there are hints of a storm in this period and then another in the first full week of 2026. 

Rapidly changing forecast goes colder with the entirety of New Year's week now wintry after some snow and possible wintry mix Sunday

Two days is an eternity when trying to sort out details in a forecast such as this one. The forecast continues to trend, mostly in the colder direction and they're a lot of important details to update. It may have been right to get excited this past Sunday but it was a mistake in retrospect to get that detail oriented in a drastically shifting forecast. 

The short term snow for Tuesday and Wednesday was a few hours late in arriving yet still on target for a long duration light and powdery snow event for the high country. Though radar shows the heaviest precipitation across southern New England Tuesday afternoon, this will shift Tuesday evening and the synoptic forcing will be better across northern Vermont. By early Wednesday the snow event gets an extension as favorable winds wring out the lingering available moisture and deposit that mostly on the high country. I continue to think this is a 5-10 inch event for areas above 1500 feet and more of a 3-5 inch event in the valley locations. Snow will taper to flurries over the mountains as the ski day concludes and some clearing can be expected Wednesday night. 

On Christmas, more clouds in association with a quickly passing disturbance will again bring mostly light snow and a likely burst of heavy snow sometime  during the day. In this instance, the snow will be of a shorter duration yet still capable of accumulating 1-3 inches. Like I mentioned in the prior update, the cold behind our Christmas snow is an important part of the holiday outlook. The high pressure center responsible is exclusive to us and it will makes the day after Christmas dramatically colder than what was indicated several days ago. Additionally, it will serve to keep most of the precipitation this upcoming weekend of the frozen variety which is a very important development. All that said, there are some important changes in the Friday to Sunday period. Friday's snow now appears gone. I was a bit too excited about the Euro Ensembles that appeared to lock this  over the weekend; instead, the snow appears destined to hit New York City and vicinity while it's possible for a semi bluebird like day in northern Vermont or at least only some innocuous high clouds. It will be blustery and very chilly Friday with temperatures in the single numbers most of the day and wind chills below zero. Just a dramatic turn from what was indicated on the longer range models 4-5 days ago. Both the wind and the cold will abate on Saturday the 27th making for a considerably more comfortable ski day. Temperatures should reach the high teens and wind chills not be as much of a factor. The frozen precipitation appears ear marked for Sunday. The storm in question is not indicated to take a favorable trajectory, but it does show signs it wants to occlude which limits the warming and keeps the door open for a mostly snow event. At the very least, some accumulating snow by the end of the Sunday ski day is probable with a changeover to some sort of wintry mix possible Sunday night. We will need another few days and to illuminate this part of the outlook a bit more. 

The entirety of the New Year's holiday week appears colder as of this update and quite dramatically so relative to 5 days ago. The possible wintry mix on Sunday night is the last remaining obstacle, everything else appears to be a snow or nothing situation and temperatures should finish 2025 and begin 2026 in the sub-freezing category. Snow showers now appear likely both Monday and Tuesday with winds appearing more favorable for an accumulation on the latter day. Hints of a bigger snow around New Year's day are back. Were it to happen, it would be from some sort of clipper-like system that blows up into something bigger and better. I would think it's likely that some type of accumulating snow occurs in this period. Enjoy the holiday everyone ! 

Christmas outlook gets a massive boost today with snow expected pretty much every day this upcoming week and two significant accumulations!

The short term forecast, which, for the sake of this update, covers Christmas week up to 12/26 gets a really positive update today and certainly not an additional warming trend. We have some concerns in the days that follow the 27th, maybe an additional concern after the New Year's holiday but there's a lot of winter weather to talk about. When I think about this in the backdrop of what we've seen in recent Christmas holiday periods, this may be one of the snowiest outlooks I can remember in this period going back a while. 

The Merry Torchmas cards are certainly in play for a good chunk of the country. The middle and lower Mississippi Valley areas, Tennessee, Kentucky, all of the Deep South and even the Mid Atlantic will just roast with plenty of record high temperatures getting recorded on multiple days. Interestingly, even portions of the Great Lakes, which have experienced a very cold month so far, are expected to get mild and eventually wet Friday into Saturday. Interior New England is simply not going to take part in this song in dance, at least for a while. Arctic air on Monday will have a firm grip on the region and certainly us. Temperatures are generally expected to be sub 15 and the weather map would suggest a blue bird day, yet models don't agree and are suggesting clouds and even some light innocuous cold snow with minimal accumulation. Steadier snow is expected by mid morning Tuesday thanks to a decent looking clipper system. Though heavy snow isn't expected, northern Vermont, the Adirondacks and much of New Hampshire are positioned very well for an extended period of this light but steady snow which should persist through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. The long duration of snowfall will help send us into the 5-10 inch inches of new snow category by midday Christmas Eve and we should be happy with the fluffier more powdery consistency. 

While warm air is pushing northeastward on Christmas Day, it's progress into northern New England will get thwarted. It's a benign looking jet stream impulse expected to bring more light snow to us on our Christmas Thursday. Though it's still expected to be the mildest day of the week, 30 degrees is a lot better than the 70 degree readings which will be occurring several hundred miles to our south. By Friday, a piece of modified arctic high pressure situated over eastern Canada, will push south and solidify what will be a very critical hold on the region as a stronger storm system approaches from the west. The temperature boundary, which will be intense by the 26th, will certainly help enhance the area of precipitation which will start falling as snow for us late Friday. There are some similarities to the setup here and what I remember as the powder fest that occurred in what I call the 18-1 week back in February 2008. The Giants ruined the Pats perfect season on that Sunday and it pretty much snowed for 3 consecutive days after that but the memory is getting a little fuzzy and the Giants do nothing but lose now. In this case, it appears we are set up for some good steady snow through early Saturday the 27th and as the weekend progresses we are fending off a push of milder air.  Some alterations will be needed in this forecast so expect that and anticipate some great powder for Saturday if we can keep this outlook in tact and possibly some mixed precipitation and even some above freezing temperatures by later Sunday. I might also add that models have yet to converge on this scenario so expect to see some forecasts reflecting this uncertainty and it may not agree with what i just wrote. I feel a bit more confident after successive runs of the European Ensemble have indicated this late Friday to early Saturday snow followed by the chance for a wintry mix Sunday. 

Near Year's week will at least feature a more wintry start with that potential wintry mix on Sunday turning back to a colder snow Monday. Expect blustery conditions with temperatures in the teens and then those readings will moderate as the week progresses. Models have moved away from targeting the New Year's holiday specifically for a storm, they have instead done that next weekend (the 27th and 28th), so it looks drier and a bit milder though not excessively so for now. Ensembles continue to try and push a very strong ridge in the middle of the continent northeastward toward us, but it's never indicated to get that strong or extend especially far to the north. Let's hope it stays that way. We aren't getting any help from the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which makes it tough for arctic air to attain any widespread U.S. coverage. Meanwhile, the Pacific has been cooperative to varying degrees and this has helped keep the chill alive especially in Canada. The Hudson Bay is about 3 weeks ahead of last year in terms of ice coverage and this makes it a bit easier for arctic air to pool over eastern Canada. Anyway, it's exciting stuff for most of the next week and a really nice Christmas period update so enjoy what I think is coming. 

Just enough cold returns for some snow on the 23rd and storm potential around the New Year's holiday

Rain and wind got us pretty good Friday morning. South winds can really rip through both the Mad River and Champlain Valleys. In the case of the latter, winds of over 40 mph helped to break the overcast, mix out any inversion and send temperature readings briefly into the middle 60's. You had about an hour to enjoy a lakeside cocktail before heavy wind driven rain and colder temperatures arrived from New York State. 

The overall outlook which covers both holidays has inched in a slightly warmer direction. Trends are important to identify, both good and bad, because if they continue over a significant span of time the forecast can ultimately be very different. In this case, Vermont still looks to be in good shape, so long as the trend we've seen in the models over the past 24-36  hours doesn't continue in the same warmer direction. 

Winter solstice weekend will be a dust on crust situation. Enough snow showers Friday night for an accumulation, but not enough for more than an inch or two. Saturday will feature a few flurries, diminished yet still gusty winds along with some intervals of sunshine .Temperatures on the mountain are likely to hold near 20 degrees. Very light snow is again possible Saturday night with little accumulation expected and this sets the stage for a blustery solstice with readings in the high 20's. 

Christmas week starts chilly with arctic air sending temperatures in to the teens. I can't promise a total bluebird kind of day though some sun appears likely. We may have enough low level instability to produce some snow showers Monday afternoon and it's worth mentioning since winds appear aligned in a favorable northwest direction for us. Snow is more likely on Tuesday, coming from a west to east moving clipper-like system. I expect a decent period of powdery snow from this and a preliminary guess would be 3-6 inches. Snow flurries will continue into Christmas Eve along with 20-30 degree temperatures followed by a generally cloudy Christmas with readings near but not really above the critical freezing threshold. 

I had to stare at many different model simulations a good long time to try and sort out some potential details worth sharing. Generally the story remains the same with a very warm ridge parked over the central United States trying to push that warmth northeastward. Interior New England continues to appear to be a good strategic place to hide from the warm air and retain a chance for some wintry weather. That said, a few days look more dicey. Warmth will attempt at making one push north on December 26h and this could push temperatures back above the freezing mark on that Friday. Cold appears poised to fight back control of the region for the ensuing weekend and some winter weather in the form of snowfall could accompany that. 

New Year's week has a very similar roster of players. More warmth in the central U.S.while cold fights to stay in control of the northeast. There's been several simulations showing storminess and I would guess we will be on the receiving end of at least one big weather producer. The very persistent and positive AO is a big reason for the southern latitude warmth. At the same time, the action in the Pacific continues to be more favorable farther north so I remain optimistic that we can finish 2025 with some excitement.