Mad River seems to be targeting December 13th as the grand opening. This is still several days away and I don't want to suffer from blogger burn-out early in the season so this update will be kept short. We are dealing with a temporary intrusion of mostly Pacific air in the wake of the Sunday/Monday weather event. Arctic air will make a return by early Friday and with it will come lake effect snow showers of a diminished and occasional variety. There is a clipper system Sunday that is already drawing attention. It appears likely that its interaction with the Atlantic Coast will lead to explosive intensification and at least some accumulation of snow is likely both across interior and coastal New England. Behind that system comes the coldest weather so far this season and likely the first sub-zero temperatures on the mountain by Tuesday morning of December 9th.
Guidance this morning still suggests that much of the cold across the Northern Hemisphere will maintain its focus on North America. The center of this focus remains a question however as there are indications of a westward shift in the mean trough. The result could be an all out street fight between the sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean ridge and arctic air to the west. Active weather would be one of the results including snowfall but there is the risk of precipitation of a non-snow variety. This is more or less how the crystal ball appears beginning around the weekend of the 13th or 14th. Until then however the pattern apppears favorable and there is at least one more clipper system during the middle of next week which appears poised to deliver some additional new snow for opening day.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Sunday night event will fall short of expectations but high hopes remain for December
The old adage "be careful what you wish for" is what first comes to mind regarding our Sunday night event. The storm was a hot prospect a few days ago potentially turning into a big early season snow event. Unfortunately everything is came together a bit too fast. The primary storm center back in the Midwest is too strong and became so too fast and is thus sucking energy away from the coast and flooding the eastern seaboard with mild air at key levels of the atmosphere. Mad River will still make out just fine out of all this. Precipitation will start as a period of snow this evening, accumulate several inches before changing to a mix of sleet and freezing rain sometime within a few hours of midnight on Monday. The layer of warmth responsible for the change to "non-snow" is a fairly potent one and it will be interesting to see how warm Mt Washington gets since the inversion should encompass the summit. My guess is the observatory there will be 5-10 degrees warmer than the base of Mad River Monday morning but we will see.
Light snows and some light accumulations across the high terrain can be expected later Monday, Monday night and into Tuesday stemming mostly from the upper trough induced instability. Dry weather can then be expected Wednesday into early Thursday and temperatures could climb into the 40's by Thursday afternoon as mild air makes a brief appearance out ahead of an approaching cold front.
The pattern has been generally cold across southeastern North America over the past few weeks mainly due to the fortuitous global positioning of upper ridges in troughs. I remain very optimistic going well into December although fundamentally the above mentioned global positioning of ridges and troughs will undergo some changes. The most glaring is that the ridging and blocking will make a high latitude migration. By the tenth of the month, two areas of ridging will be noted one across the Bering Sea and another across Northern Europe. The two features will force most of the most intense cold to the North American side of the globe and will be centered over Canada by the middle of month making frequent intrusions into at least northern areas of the United States including northern New England. This is a different pattern than the prevailing pattern of the last two weeks where the center of the cold was deep in the southeast. Most of Canada in fact has a had a very warm month of November with much of the country running 3 degrees above average or more for the month.
As far as snow is concerned we should also fair quite well. A few rain showers could precede the turn to colder weather late on Thursday. Terrain induced instability snow showers should then grace the mountain going into the weekend and may provide the necessary shot in the arm for an opening at MRG. It will be a pattern consisting of a relatively inactive southern branch and a powerful polar jet so our snow beyond the 7th will result mostly from clipper systems. They could prove to be quite frequent however with accumulating snow on the mountain once every two days either of the terrain induced variety or from the clippers themselves. All told I would not be surprised to see some of the best December skiing since 2000 by the time we reach the 15th or the 20th of the month.
It will be a good month to be unemployed ;)
Light snows and some light accumulations across the high terrain can be expected later Monday, Monday night and into Tuesday stemming mostly from the upper trough induced instability. Dry weather can then be expected Wednesday into early Thursday and temperatures could climb into the 40's by Thursday afternoon as mild air makes a brief appearance out ahead of an approaching cold front.
The pattern has been generally cold across southeastern North America over the past few weeks mainly due to the fortuitous global positioning of upper ridges in troughs. I remain very optimistic going well into December although fundamentally the above mentioned global positioning of ridges and troughs will undergo some changes. The most glaring is that the ridging and blocking will make a high latitude migration. By the tenth of the month, two areas of ridging will be noted one across the Bering Sea and another across Northern Europe. The two features will force most of the most intense cold to the North American side of the globe and will be centered over Canada by the middle of month making frequent intrusions into at least northern areas of the United States including northern New England. This is a different pattern than the prevailing pattern of the last two weeks where the center of the cold was deep in the southeast. Most of Canada in fact has a had a very warm month of November with much of the country running 3 degrees above average or more for the month.
As far as snow is concerned we should also fair quite well. A few rain showers could precede the turn to colder weather late on Thursday. Terrain induced instability snow showers should then grace the mountain going into the weekend and may provide the necessary shot in the arm for an opening at MRG. It will be a pattern consisting of a relatively inactive southern branch and a powerful polar jet so our snow beyond the 7th will result mostly from clipper systems. They could prove to be quite frequent however with accumulating snow on the mountain once every two days either of the terrain induced variety or from the clippers themselves. All told I would not be surprised to see some of the best December skiing since 2000 by the time we reach the 15th or the 20th of the month.
It will be a good month to be unemployed ;)
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Yes, the time has come for 2008-2009...
And based on the number of emails I have received over the past two weeks it seems we are ready for a taste of winter, some powder and a trip up the single chair. My apologies for not getting things kicked started a bit earlier. I am still alive and so is the blog, which to be honest is a bit of a comfort considering the temporary peril my career seems to be in at the moment and the thought of having to test a rather challenging job market. At the very least there is plenty of time for blogging and if we can get a good early start to winter I might get the chance at a few mid-week powder days. I mean if we could put a price on a powder day at Mad River then why the heck would anybody start a blog like this ? So with all that said, the 08-09 season begins and hopefully turns into a memorable one for I could very much use it.
The seasonal part arrives a big late so I will summarize my thoughts and then move quickly into some prognostications for the next few weeks. Completely ignoring the current state of affairs and all the early snow, my favorite early season indicators appear to be very similar to last year. The one exception is the state of the ENSO; which, when compared to last year is running much closer to average. The ENSO describes the state of the equatorial Pacific and an ENSO event includes the likes of an El Nino or La Nina which is synonymous with sea surface temperatures that are running above or below average respectively. This years temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are closer to average, a sharp contrast to last year where clearly La Nina was clearly establishing itself as an early and dominant force on the weather. The La Nina indeed proved to be such a force last winter though its impact was wide ranging. It did as predicted bring numerous and quite disruptive rain events but a persistent storm track provided plenty of powder. It was a headache to keep track of the changes but the results were at least better than I expected. With the ENSO in a neutral state, my expectations have risen considerably. With the lack of a strong southeast ridge, I would expect the storm track to be further south and the weather pattern to resemble the current one for long stretches of the winter (more on that later).
There are a set of negatives that accompany the perceived improvements with the ENSO situation. The index used to measure the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) remains very negative. Such a state encourages a trough in the western part of North America (similar to last year). Snow cover over the northern hemisphere for October and November has also been very unimpressive. It has lagged the 30-year average through the entire month of October and although making a half-hearted comeback in November, still lags the normal build-up of snow in the northern hemisphere in autumn. It should be noted that the build-up of ice in the Arctic has been faster than last year. It should also be noted that the ice in the same regions of the Arctic did not fall to the insanely low summer levels of 2007. This makes intuitive sense when one looks at the data for 2008 and sees that temperatures have actually ticked cooler verses 2007. Through October, 2008 temperatures are the 9th warmest in 129 years of data while 2007 ranked 2nd. Anyway, without going off on a complete tangent, the build-up of snow/ice overall does not argue for colder than average temperatures throughout the winter in spite of the cold which has occurred.
So in summary I am more optimistic than last year but in spite of some of the early similarities to the 2000-2001 dream season, I would expect this season to fall short of that one. Snowfall will run within the normal range this year totaling anywhere between 220-280 inches. Temperatures will run above the 30-year average for the winter by about 2 degrees and we will likely encounter a real mild stretch that could cripple skiing for a few weeks. Right now I would guess this occurs in January.
Enough of that though. Seasonal forecasts are made and then forgotten and often turn out be wrong however fun they are to create. The shorter term is both predictable and more important. We also happen to be in the midst of a extremely favorable early season characterized by a strong western U.S. ridge and equally strong eastern trough. Cold weather has been the result along with 20-30 inches of early season pre-thanksgiving snow. Better yet, we appear to be locked in to a very favorable teleconnection induced long-wave pattern. The Pacific-North American (PNA) index is making a run into positive territory while the North Atlantic Oscillation appears to want to throw an all out negative-state bash. The pattern over the past few weeks is relatively blocked at high latitudes while cold in many of the important middle latitudes including both in Europe and in the eastern United States.
In the very short term, the strong upper low, or the driving force behind the Monday-Tuesday snow is becoming relatively stuck in the eastern Great Lakes. It would be nice to get the fruits of its labor but through Wednesday it will be depositing its snow farther west. By Thanksgiving day and then on Friday, some of this upper level energy will get booted eastward and this should allow for a slow decline in temperatures on the mountain and accumulating snow of the light and elevation induced variety. Any snow will taper to flurries Saturday before it turns completely dry Sunday.
The next chance at a real significant event arrives Sunday night into early Monday. The snow would result from a clipper potentially gone wild as it interacts with the Atlantic Ocean. Such things do happen when eastern troughs amplify in a big way and such an amplification is expected to occur early next week. Colder weather will again follow which is very good news in this early season and a few more weaker clippers should reinforce the early start to winter this year. We will update continuously as the situation evolves and as Mad River Glen decides how and when it decides to open.
Happy Thanksgiving to all and welcome back. The comments are always appreciated even if I don't have time to respond to them all !!
The seasonal part arrives a big late so I will summarize my thoughts and then move quickly into some prognostications for the next few weeks. Completely ignoring the current state of affairs and all the early snow, my favorite early season indicators appear to be very similar to last year. The one exception is the state of the ENSO; which, when compared to last year is running much closer to average. The ENSO describes the state of the equatorial Pacific and an ENSO event includes the likes of an El Nino or La Nina which is synonymous with sea surface temperatures that are running above or below average respectively. This years temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are closer to average, a sharp contrast to last year where clearly La Nina was clearly establishing itself as an early and dominant force on the weather. The La Nina indeed proved to be such a force last winter though its impact was wide ranging. It did as predicted bring numerous and quite disruptive rain events but a persistent storm track provided plenty of powder. It was a headache to keep track of the changes but the results were at least better than I expected. With the ENSO in a neutral state, my expectations have risen considerably. With the lack of a strong southeast ridge, I would expect the storm track to be further south and the weather pattern to resemble the current one for long stretches of the winter (more on that later).
There are a set of negatives that accompany the perceived improvements with the ENSO situation. The index used to measure the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) remains very negative. Such a state encourages a trough in the western part of North America (similar to last year). Snow cover over the northern hemisphere for October and November has also been very unimpressive. It has lagged the 30-year average through the entire month of October and although making a half-hearted comeback in November, still lags the normal build-up of snow in the northern hemisphere in autumn. It should be noted that the build-up of ice in the Arctic has been faster than last year. It should also be noted that the ice in the same regions of the Arctic did not fall to the insanely low summer levels of 2007. This makes intuitive sense when one looks at the data for 2008 and sees that temperatures have actually ticked cooler verses 2007. Through October, 2008 temperatures are the 9th warmest in 129 years of data while 2007 ranked 2nd. Anyway, without going off on a complete tangent, the build-up of snow/ice overall does not argue for colder than average temperatures throughout the winter in spite of the cold which has occurred.
So in summary I am more optimistic than last year but in spite of some of the early similarities to the 2000-2001 dream season, I would expect this season to fall short of that one. Snowfall will run within the normal range this year totaling anywhere between 220-280 inches. Temperatures will run above the 30-year average for the winter by about 2 degrees and we will likely encounter a real mild stretch that could cripple skiing for a few weeks. Right now I would guess this occurs in January.
Enough of that though. Seasonal forecasts are made and then forgotten and often turn out be wrong however fun they are to create. The shorter term is both predictable and more important. We also happen to be in the midst of a extremely favorable early season characterized by a strong western U.S. ridge and equally strong eastern trough. Cold weather has been the result along with 20-30 inches of early season pre-thanksgiving snow. Better yet, we appear to be locked in to a very favorable teleconnection induced long-wave pattern. The Pacific-North American (PNA) index is making a run into positive territory while the North Atlantic Oscillation appears to want to throw an all out negative-state bash. The pattern over the past few weeks is relatively blocked at high latitudes while cold in many of the important middle latitudes including both in Europe and in the eastern United States.
In the very short term, the strong upper low, or the driving force behind the Monday-Tuesday snow is becoming relatively stuck in the eastern Great Lakes. It would be nice to get the fruits of its labor but through Wednesday it will be depositing its snow farther west. By Thanksgiving day and then on Friday, some of this upper level energy will get booted eastward and this should allow for a slow decline in temperatures on the mountain and accumulating snow of the light and elevation induced variety. Any snow will taper to flurries Saturday before it turns completely dry Sunday.
The next chance at a real significant event arrives Sunday night into early Monday. The snow would result from a clipper potentially gone wild as it interacts with the Atlantic Ocean. Such things do happen when eastern troughs amplify in a big way and such an amplification is expected to occur early next week. Colder weather will again follow which is very good news in this early season and a few more weaker clippers should reinforce the early start to winter this year. We will update continuously as the situation evolves and as Mad River Glen decides how and when it decides to open.
Happy Thanksgiving to all and welcome back. The comments are always appreciated even if I don't have time to respond to them all !!
Sunday, April 27, 2008
The 2008 sign-off
I will start the finale by apologizing. I have been a bit MIA due to some extraneous events and a ridiculous amount of travel and I therefore was not able to report on the extended period of spring skiing during the first half of April. The blog wouldn't be complete however without a proper farewell and so I will take this opportunity to wish everyone a happy spring and summer.
The winter of 2007-2008 took many of us prognosticaters by surprise. At the surface it would seem that perhaps there was no surprise. Temperatures came in above average over a broad area of the eastern seaboard and most of the major metropolitan areas saw below average snowfall and in some cases well below average. Meanwhile the configuration of weather was consistent with that of a La Nina. All of those midwestern cities that have received so little snowfall year after year this decade suddenly saw a big seasonal total. So will I take the credit for getting all of this right ? No, I will not. In my seasonal prognostication, I drew way too many analogies to 2005-2006 and this winter deviated quite significantly from that forgettable catastrophe.
Even as temperatures averaged above the 30 year mean we call normal, a closer look at the behavior of actual weather reveals a somewhat different story. Let me put it simply by just saying that "the cold would not go down without a fight". It would in fact take more than one hand to count the amount of times that this want-to-be genius was selling the cold at a discount only to find that its actual worth was much greater. The warm forecast can be attributed to the snow cover in autumn (over a standard deviation below normal in the northern hemisphere). The cold weather could very well be attributed to the same variable - snow cover, which was close to a 30-year high in January (it took 3 months to completely reverse).
The cold came in handy on a number of occasions, providing us with the necessary ingredients for snow. It certainly was vital since the storm track was aimed right over interior New England as it often is during stronger La Nina winters. South of this storm track performed horribly this winter while north of this track performed quite well. Take a look at these snowfall totals for some selected cites.
Montreal, Quebec - 142 inches (169 % of average)
Burlington, VT - 100 inches (131 % of average)
Boston, MA - 51 inches (113 % of average)
Philadephia, PA - 6 inches (25 % of average)
In the the language of anomalies that is quite a contrast. In other words, some pain and suffering had to be endured by skiers/riders who stayed at Seven Springs or Snowshoe WV this year. Latitidude was key at we had it at MRG and this proved to save our season.
See everyone next winter !
Josh
The winter of 2007-2008 took many of us prognosticaters by surprise. At the surface it would seem that perhaps there was no surprise. Temperatures came in above average over a broad area of the eastern seaboard and most of the major metropolitan areas saw below average snowfall and in some cases well below average. Meanwhile the configuration of weather was consistent with that of a La Nina. All of those midwestern cities that have received so little snowfall year after year this decade suddenly saw a big seasonal total. So will I take the credit for getting all of this right ? No, I will not. In my seasonal prognostication, I drew way too many analogies to 2005-2006 and this winter deviated quite significantly from that forgettable catastrophe.
Even as temperatures averaged above the 30 year mean we call normal, a closer look at the behavior of actual weather reveals a somewhat different story. Let me put it simply by just saying that "the cold would not go down without a fight". It would in fact take more than one hand to count the amount of times that this want-to-be genius was selling the cold at a discount only to find that its actual worth was much greater. The warm forecast can be attributed to the snow cover in autumn (over a standard deviation below normal in the northern hemisphere). The cold weather could very well be attributed to the same variable - snow cover, which was close to a 30-year high in January (it took 3 months to completely reverse).
The cold came in handy on a number of occasions, providing us with the necessary ingredients for snow. It certainly was vital since the storm track was aimed right over interior New England as it often is during stronger La Nina winters. South of this storm track performed horribly this winter while north of this track performed quite well. Take a look at these snowfall totals for some selected cites.
Montreal, Quebec - 142 inches (169 % of average)
Burlington, VT - 100 inches (131 % of average)
Boston, MA - 51 inches (113 % of average)
Philadephia, PA - 6 inches (25 % of average)
In the the language of anomalies that is quite a contrast. In other words, some pain and suffering had to be endured by skiers/riders who stayed at Seven Springs or Snowshoe WV this year. Latitidude was key at we had it at MRG and this proved to save our season.
See everyone next winter !
Josh
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Spring has sprung but winter will claw back
And as called on the blog, as part of the shortest update in history, we really did have a spectacular stretch of weather which provided for some great spring skiing. Thursday will be the last of such days as temperatures on the mountain again climb well into the 50's along with some sunshine. Friday however will bring the beginning of a very abrupt change. Both colder weather and clouds will mark what will be the start of a major pattern amplification. Talk of "amplifications" and east coast storms go hand and hand and much of Vermont will see an impact from a storm which will gather some strength across the Plains Thursday and advance eastward Friday. Temperatures are likely to be a bit warm at the surface to support snow and precipitation is likely to start as some rain on Friday. The rain will be periodic in nature but will continue through early Saturday along with temperatures in the 30's.
The longwave pattern will continue to amplify on Saturday and will allow the storm system to transfer much of its energy to the Atlantic Coast. This will also allow colder weather to advance both east and south into interior New England. By early Sunday temperatures both at the surface and aloft are cold enough to support snow but the storms organization that has yet to be answered. Specifically it is unclear whether we can tap into the remaining available moisture and get a significant period of snow out of this before the storm advances out to sea. From my perspective it seems very possible. Any snow is also very capable of accumulating later Sunday into Monday and at the very least conditions should be unstable enough for snow showers.
Winter will certainly make a splash in the form of temperatures on Sunday and Monday as temperatures are unlikely to climb much above freezing during the day. Thereafter, temperatures will modify very quickly and so will our spring conditions. 60-degree temperatures are again possible during the day by the middle part of the week.
The longwave pattern will continue to amplify on Saturday and will allow the storm system to transfer much of its energy to the Atlantic Coast. This will also allow colder weather to advance both east and south into interior New England. By early Sunday temperatures both at the surface and aloft are cold enough to support snow but the storms organization that has yet to be answered. Specifically it is unclear whether we can tap into the remaining available moisture and get a significant period of snow out of this before the storm advances out to sea. From my perspective it seems very possible. Any snow is also very capable of accumulating later Sunday into Monday and at the very least conditions should be unstable enough for snow showers.
Winter will certainly make a splash in the form of temperatures on Sunday and Monday as temperatures are unlikely to climb much above freezing during the day. Thereafter, temperatures will modify very quickly and so will our spring conditions. 60-degree temperatures are again possible during the day by the middle part of the week.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Some wet snow and some rain Friday and then lots of warm dry days
A period of wet snow should fall in some very stale cold air during the day Friday. Even this however should change to rain later in the day and taper to drizzle during the evening. I can't get too excited about accumulations here given the temperatures. I am however excited about what looks to be an extended period of dry weather consisting of seasonable below freezing nights and warm days, many of which will be above 50 during the afternoon. Many of them also should feature sunshine. The clearing should take place during the middle of the day Saturday and Sunday should outstanding with plenty of sunshine. Enjoy it !
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Snow is possible for the weekend but the cold is losing its grip as April begins
Some of the low clouds and rain impacting much of Vermont Tuesday morning will give way a few breaks of sun and very mild weather as strong southerly winds blow the hint of seasonal change to MRG. This will be followed by rain showers and much colder temperatures Wednesday along with the occasional morning snow shower. After high temps of above 60 in some of the lower elevations Tuesday, Wednesday will see temperatures of near freezing and wind chills in the teens. Those kind of temperature and weather swings are a notorious characteristic of New England in early spring.
Weekend system could bring snow (its close) but powder is unlikely
The below normal temps will continue through thursday thanks to a decaying but once very strong late season arctic airmass which has helped to keep winter firmly in charge across the west during the last few days. The airmass will continue to weaken while over the east and will actually be quite stale upon the arrival of our next weather system. The NAO continues to battle it out with the prevailing western upper trough and it appears as though we will get a more favorable out of this late week storm system when it passes. It is April however and given the weakening nature of the airmass next week, our prospects for "powder" appear low. Snow remains a possibility however and could arrive as early as Friday and continue into the night before either tapering off Saturday or turning to drizzle or a light rain. We may indeed see temperatures as low as 10 during the middle of this week but while the storm is in progress I really don't expect temps to stray too far from freezing and may hover just above freezing at the base.
Spring skiing next week
There continues to be a big compition between the teleconnection indicators as we head toward next week regarding the prevailing weather pattern. The NAO, which has a tendency to provide us with the more favorable storm tracks continues to be negative and favorable. The PNA however is not providing much in the way of support however and this typically has a more direct correlation to temperatures relative to normal. Once the system clears during the weekend, the return of sunshine will mean that afternoon temperatures climb to well above freezing over a succession of days beginning Sunday and persisting through next week. So long as we stay mainly dry, this will not be a bad thing as we will see the harvesting of the corn crop (corn snow i should say).
Weekend system could bring snow (its close) but powder is unlikely
The below normal temps will continue through thursday thanks to a decaying but once very strong late season arctic airmass which has helped to keep winter firmly in charge across the west during the last few days. The airmass will continue to weaken while over the east and will actually be quite stale upon the arrival of our next weather system. The NAO continues to battle it out with the prevailing western upper trough and it appears as though we will get a more favorable out of this late week storm system when it passes. It is April however and given the weakening nature of the airmass next week, our prospects for "powder" appear low. Snow remains a possibility however and could arrive as early as Friday and continue into the night before either tapering off Saturday or turning to drizzle or a light rain. We may indeed see temperatures as low as 10 during the middle of this week but while the storm is in progress I really don't expect temps to stray too far from freezing and may hover just above freezing at the base.
Spring skiing next week
There continues to be a big compition between the teleconnection indicators as we head toward next week regarding the prevailing weather pattern. The NAO, which has a tendency to provide us with the more favorable storm tracks continues to be negative and favorable. The PNA however is not providing much in the way of support however and this typically has a more direct correlation to temperatures relative to normal. Once the system clears during the weekend, the return of sunshine will mean that afternoon temperatures climb to well above freezing over a succession of days beginning Sunday and persisting through next week. So long as we stay mainly dry, this will not be a bad thing as we will see the harvesting of the corn crop (corn snow i should say).
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