Latest on the MLK storm and a cold, wintry finish to January

Bitterly cold temperatures were a little delayed Friday morning but not denied with readings plunging rapidly into the single numbers across northern Vermont Friday evening. Expect temperatures to remain mostly below zero Saturday across the northern Vermont high country with strong winds (especially at the summits) continuing through early afternoon before subsiding by the evening. A much calmer day can be expected Sunday with sunshine warming temperatures into the teens by the afternoon. If you appreciate some of the big visibility winter days like I do, then Sunday comes highly recommended. 

The latest on the MLK storm is as follows. The storm is a really nice base-building type event but I would not expect epic snowfall amounts. It's close but, it's just not that type of storm. The already very mature cyclone will move from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina Piedmont on Sunday and subsequently move northward while fighting to establish a coastline presence. The elongated low pressure center will pass pretty far west (as far as nor'easter's go), perhaps even through western Mass and up over the Upper Connecticut River Valley.  Followers of the blog (and of weather in general) know that this is less than optimal though not disastrous. The MRV is well positioned to get a deep plume of moisture early Monday but also positioned to get challenged with warmer marine air along with a dry slot. Expect snow to begin and become quite heavy for a time early Monday (lets give a start time of 6 am) with several inches of accumulation before precipitation mixes with and possibly even changes to sleet. If the track of the storm follows or even shifts west of this trajectory, the push of low level warmth is powerful enough to change the precip type to rain very briefly though I am of the opinion that this happens in the form of drizzle and during the period where the dry slot has overtaken much of northern Vermont. The snow and some sleet that arrives on Monday will be of the very dense Atlantic variety. It won't be glop or sierra cement but any mixing with sleet will very much weigh it down. I really enjoy reading Scott Braaten's analysis especially when he talks about dendrite growth and how it relates to snow consistency. I think he would agree with my assessment here but check him out on facebook for confirmation. After a several hour lull, the snow should return during the evening and continue at a lighter rate but of a much fluffier consistency into early Tuesday.  

I remain a bit uncertain about the sleet mixing (midday Monday) as of Friday evening. A couple of runs of the high resolution model are aggressively blasting milder air into Vermont but these simulations have their limitations out past 48 hours. Both major global models continue to suggest a primarily snow event although it is close. I point this out because it is of material consequence when it comes to predicting snowfall amounts. Sleet is highly dense in nature, snowfall is not and sleet can weigh down already fallen snow. With all of this in mind, I am sticking with the 8-16 prediction for the time being with 4-10 very dense inches falling early Monday and 4-6 fluffier inches falling Monday evening, night and into Tuesday. Accumulations will be elevation sensitive, especially during our 2nd dose of snowfall.

Expect fairly typical January-like temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday with a sharp and very intense surge of arctic chill approaching Wednesday evening. We have another shot at a few inches of snow on Wednesday as the arctic boundary approaches and some additional terrain enhanced powder is possible Thursday but the this surge of low level cold is powerful enough to stabilize the low level environment pretty quickly by late in the day. Friday into next Saturday looks like a freezer across all of New England, Vermont especially with plenty of sub-zero readings during the overnights and readings struggling into the single numbers during the day. 

The outlook continues to look quite cold, especially during the period beginning Thursday January 20th and persisting through at least January 28th or so. We can expect to hear talk of the polar vortex which should be in the vicinity of Vermont at least once during this period. Such a pattern can suppress storms to the south but there are signs of both clippers and even a more organized coastal system in between arctic shots of cold next weekend. It's January and it will certainly feel like it for the duration of the month.

MLK storm now very likely though track is still uncertain with favorable pattern now firmly in control through end of month

So much winter weather to discuss in this update with a favorable pattern now firmly in control through the duration of the month. For good reason, we got our eyes fixed on the potential storm on MLK day but there's plenty of weather before that worth knowing about. Arctic air has retreated into eastern Canada but is expected to slam into interior New England again on Friday. Clouds and some very sporadic very light snow can be expected for Thursday with comfortable temperature readings and tolerable wind speeds. Snow will intensify just enough for a light accumulation late Thursday or Thursday evening as the clash between a big storm well offshore and a strong arctic high in Ontario strengthens. That arctic chill will plunge directly into Vermont on Friday and with some very strong northerly winds that will only increase as the day goes on. Temperatures will start in the high teens and likely end the day in the single numbers and with well below zero wind chills. There have been stronger areas of arctic cold to impact Vermont, but when cold enters the state directly from Quebec, it can be especially intense and since this surge is accompanied by ferocious winds, especially at the summit, it is certainly worth nothing. Expect actual temps to be close to -10 Saturday morning with wind gusts reaching 40 mph or more at the summits. I don't make any calls on wind holds since individual lifts can be overly sensitive to certain wind directions but I would not be surprised to see a few. Winds will diminish rapidly Saturday night and a calm day on Sunday will make it feel dramatically warmer. Saturday afternoon temps are likely to stay below zero with wind and Sunday will be closer to 15 with some sunshine and hardly any wind. We still expect little snowfall through Sunday except for perhaps an inch or two late Thursday and whatever falls then will become very compressed and windblown by midday Friday. 

We have broken many snow droughts over the years on MLK day. Off the top of my head I remember significant snow occurring in 2007, 2009, 2015, 2019 and last year so it might be a little matchup between destiny and a recent run of bad luck.  In the case of this year, the blog has, for a while now, made mention of the storm potential during this period, but model data was intent on taking this action offshore when the last update was posted. Since then, there has been a dramatic shift northwest with a storm that looks like a southern streamer, but actually enters the continent in coastal BC. This storm looks dramatically more amplified when it begins to interact with the Atlantic Ocean after already entraining substantial amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. By late Sunday, situation appears like a classic "Miller A" noreaster with an already strong storm getting another charge from some incoming polar energy. Though the slightly negative NAO has certainly helped with the recent trend, the storm is still a fast mover and the track has not yet been set. The northwest shift has been so dramatic over the last 36 hours that we are now asking it to stop. Several operational models are actually taking the storm west of what we would consider an optimal track, which would limit our snowfall to more disappointing range. Recent ensemble data has begun to exhibit some consistency however (of a fairly optimal track) and I thus cautiously optimistic. We need to fully iron out some of  the wrinkles in the forecast data before many details become clear, but it does appear that it will stay dry through Sunday evening with snow arriving Monday morning. From that point, we need the storm track to pass between Boston and the Cape for snowfall totals to reach a foot-plus. A track west of Boston and we will likely see a thump of snow, maybe even some sleet and then a dry slot and if the storm stays east of the Cape then we start to limit available moisture. 

Behind the storm we can expect some snow showers Monday night and a few days of comfortable temperatures before another surge of colder weather arrives sometime late in the week. This next surge of cold around the Thursday the 20th time frame is also the next chance for some snow. A big surge of arctic air is then expected across all of eastern North America between January 22 (Saturday) and January 27th. It's been a while but we finally got a favorable Pacific jet to align with a ridge (+PNA regime) in western North America. It will mean some big time arctic chill and it also means that we shift the storm track south. New snowfall will have to come from more moisture-starved clippers and limited terrain enhanced snow.

Bitterly cold temperatures dominate the forecast picture (strong winds Fri/Sat) for MLK weekend but outlook looks unfortunately less snowy

Chilly January weather pattern continues to be the headline but our desperate search for significant natural snow endures for this week and, in all likelihood, through most of the holiday weekend as well. Snow showers and a few snow squalls associated with the strongest push of arctic air so far this season were confined to southern Vermont Monday while low level stability has taken control across northern Vermont and will maintain control through Tuesday. We get a big visibility, bone chilling, bluebird day Tuesday but with temperatures generally staying below zero on the mountain and only slightly above zero in low lying areas. Feisty winds will continue through the middle part of the day before subsiding Tuesday evening. 

Temperatures will modify, temporarily for Wednesday and Thursday as a large storm strengthens off the Atlantic Coast. We've seen this happen on a few occasions this winter and its hurt our ability to procure a normal allotment of terrain enhanced snow. In spite of this, incoming polar energy is expected to allow for an inverted trough set up and an area of  light snow across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains on Thursday. Models are not especially bullish on snow amounts but a light accumulation is still my expectation. The polar energy is expected to further fuel the offshore storm and usher another area of dry arctic chill into New England for the weekend. Though the forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday is certainly quite cold, it also appears much drier thanks to northwest flow aloft and storminess that is now expected to track well to our south on Saturday. We should see plenty of sunshine through early Sunday but once again, no new snow. I might point out that the strengthening offshore storm on Friday combined with a strong arctic high over Ontario means very windy conditions will accompany the single digit daytime temperatures. Northerly winds at the summits will be in the 30-40 mph range and will only slightly subside on Saturday. Measured in terms of wind chill, the upcoming weekend will be one of the coldest since the arctic outbreak in early 2018 so plan accordingly.

Chances for new snow do increase next week beginning as early as MLK day with additional chances for the ensuing week. The pattern appears decidedly chilly next week but the bitterly cold air from this weekend is expected to modify while disturbances moving quickly through the polar jet stream will present opportunities for snowfall. There are actually several different scenarios that would include some snowfall for the Vermont high country and though most of them consist of lighter snowfall amounts, there remains the chance for something more significant. The jet stream is likely to undergo a more significant amplification late in the week and in addition to the snow chance, the chances for another round of bitterly cold arctic outbreak increase. Ensembles show a pretty clear signal for some extreme cold in the Great Lakes and New England around January 24 which is the Monday of the last full week of January.

Incoming cold pattern sets up Vermont for an wintry rest of January and some Marvin Gaye music

Temperature profiles reveal a rather unique scenario in the Mad River Valley on Sunday. A warm layer aloft is strong enough to allow for a sleet/freezing mixture, but as temperatures gradually warm toward the freezing mark at the surface, that same warm layer will disappear allowing all precipitation to change to snow. So its freezing rain and sleet with temperatures in the 20's during the morning and light snow with temperatures in the 30's during the midday and afternoon hours. With precipitation both light and sporadic, accumulations will also be on the light side and be in the 1-2 inch range but we need all contributions at this point so giddy-up. 

More generally, I am excited about this pattern over the next few weeks. We've had to wait a few years, but we finally tamed the Pacific for an extended period and some persistent and steady cold will be the result across New England. If temperatures sneak above the freezing mark in a few areas on Sunday it may be the last time it happens for several weeks in northern Vermont. We got a good burst of cold arriving Monday as a small taste of what is to come. We could use a little more snow to accompany the incoming chilly air but it looks like the lower troposphere will stabilize after maybe an inch or so from snow showers Sunday night. Bluebird weather prevails by late Monday and continues into Tuesday accompanying plenty of sub-zero readings. Temperatures moderate Wednesday afternoon with a chance for some light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

I whined about the +NAO regime during the last update and maybe that's what it took for some help to arrive. Some weakening in the jet stream in the area south of Greenland next weekend sets up for a potentially interesting scenario where storminess appears stuck out over the coastal Atlantic. Incoming polar energy could very well light the fuse for something but models are understandably inconsistent as to exactly what that something might be. My over/under for snow in the MRV MLK weekend is certainly not set at zero however and would probably range between 5-10 inches. Lets let this simmer for another few days and see what surfaces. The home-run outcome is out there but there are several other lesser outcomes that could also prove productive. 

The pattern is aligning beautifully for cold weather in the two weeks following MLK which encompasses most of the rest of January. A weakened jet in the Pacific combined with an elongated ridge stretching from western North America through parts of the arctic should open the pipeline for continuous arctic chill. The storm track will be pushed farther south but water temps in the western Atlantic create an inciting and inviting environment for storms. Lake Champlain is also no where close to freezing which creates steady opportunities for terrain enhanced snow. With that, I will leave you with this Marvin Gaye classic just because... 

Marvin

Vermont misses out on most of Friday's action but pattern looks very supportive for more cold and snow for at least the next two weeks

 Recent model data has indeed shifted the track of Friday's storm north and west but it's a simple case of too little too late. It assures coastal areas will see a decent snowfall including more snowfall in parts of the Mid-Atlantic but northern Vermont will only see a period of light snowfall and accumulations of an inch or two with the "two" more likely across the high country. This might be a decent setup for some terrain enhanced snowfall but an organized storm off the coast has the effect minimizing such activity in the outer periphery. It's more bad luck for interior New England but the pattern through mid January continues to look fundamentally wintry and supportive for more chances at natural snow. 

Saturday appears to be a beautiful January day with increasing amounts of sunshine (after some morning flurries) and excellent visibility. It will be cold and blustery for a while (near 15 degrees for actual temps) but this is nothing we aren't used to. Clouds make a return for Sunday and winds will turn southwesterly and increase in speed but temperatures are not expected to be especially mild and are only expected to reach or exceed the freezing mark in valley locations. Precipitation is likely on Sunday but not a lot is expected and temperature profiles suggest snow as precipitation type although it remains close enough to keep watching. 

We haven't enjoyed a real old fashioned New England blast of cold in a while and with the slower than average Hudson Bay freeze, we had to wait a bit this winter but it's coming behind a cold front on Monday. We can expect flurries, snow showers and maybe a snow squall during the day and then temperatures plummet well below zero Monday night. Temperatures around the Mt Washington elevation appear to be about -30 C  or -22 F which is pretty impressive, even for them. That bitterly cold, stable arctic environment sets up Vermont for a bluebird day on Tuesday but temperatures across the high country are likely to stay sub-zero through the ski day. 

Temperatures will moderate during the day Wednesday and again on Thursday and that process should open the door for a snowfall though its a bit early for specific timing and potential amounts. We then expect the pattern to re-amplify for the weekend of January 15th and 16th thanks to the building +PNA pattern (western North America jet stream ridge). To reiterate from the last update, this marks a big change since the PNA has returned a negative observed index since December 1 leading to the barrage of rain, snow and cold on the west coast. More importantly for us is the improving signal for an east coast storm around the aforementioned weekend.  Can't make any guarantees about big snow but this is likely going to be the next focal point for storm speculation.  It's also MLK weekend and based on a litany of historical results (and absolutely no science) we always seem to break out of snow droughts on this particular holiday. 

Ensembles indicate a nice signature that the ridge across western North America will extend to the pole and allow arctic air flood much of eastern and central North America. The trough axis slightly east of the Mississippi River valley makes the east coast a lightning rod for storm activity although one component we appear to be missing (both with Friday's storm and over the next two weeks) is a negative NAO and this often means weather systems are more quick hitting and have the available escape hatch to the open Atlantic. Still a pattern I would gladly sign up for over many others !

Pattern supports mostly cold weather through mid-January but models have shifted Friday storm farther south and east

 We have a decent January weather pattern in front of us with plenty of cold weather. The big block in the Chukchi Sea (above the Bering Sea) is close to peaking and is the mechanism forcing arctic air southward and over a more expansive area of North America. Meanwhile the Pacific is is expected to remain mostly cooperative marking a big change from prevailing conditions over recent winters. I am not yet convinced it will stay this way for the duration of the winter but I'll take what I can get and wait, like the rest of us, for this weather pattern to pay us some real dividends in the form of natural snow. 

Though the surge of milder temperature will mostly fail to bring temperatures significantly above freezing Wednesday, there is a small amount of moisture expected to skim the state and bring some mixed precipitation (snow or freezing rain) for a few hours in the afternoon. Readings will fall back into the 20's Thursday as we await the gradual formation  and approach of our fast-moving late week winter storm. Over the last few days, model data has shifted the storm south and east out over the ocean and east of Cape Cod. Much of the heaviest snow in such a scenario would be confined to coastal areas. All that said, I expect models to begin showing a more amplified system and to shift the track further north and west over the next 48 hours. It is just very difficult to predict how much and whether this turns out to be the critical difference in bringing at least some heavy snowfall to northern Vermont. As mentioned in the last post, the very warm water along the Mid Atlantic and New England coastline is capable of making a big and last minute impact on the forecast and eventual track of this storm. Within the next day or two, we will find out whether this will play out as such. Either way, this is a fast moving storm with a another New England forecaster calling it a "thump, dump and run" situation (got to give @eweather credit for that one). The snow if it happens, will be tapering too snow showers and flurries by later Friday with clearing expected by Saturday. 

In addition to the potential storm, the forecast over the next week will consist of rapidly changing weather with almost every day featuring differences from its respective yesterday. Saturday will be cold (teens) and begin blustery with flurries and calmer with sunshine. Sunday will cloudier and not nearly as chilly with temperatures approaching the freezing mark. There's moisture accompanying the big surge of milder temperatures on Sunday and this means the chances for rain and freezing rain will increase as the day progresses. Whatever does fall late this weekend will make another quick exit as a strong surge of arctic cold will take it's biggest swing at New England so far this winter. Temperatures will begin to fall Monday, a day likely to feature snow showers and maybe a snows squall ahead of a boundary of very intense chill. Much of Tuesday will feature readings in the single numbers while Tuesday night features readings of close to 10 below. 

As next week continues to progress, we can expect some of the most intense cold to retreat into eastern Canada temporarily. At the same time, the overall weather pattern, which has been very unsettled and snowy in the ski areas out west in recent weeks, will shift with a jet stream ridge building in those same locations. This configuration will focus more of the weather action on the eastern part of North America and opens the door for more snowfall opportunities in New England. If this aforementioned ridge migrates into Alaska as some of the ensembles are suggesting, very cold weather could return beginning around the time of the January 15th-16th weekend.  Our recent bad luck will have to reach epic proportions to get through the next few weeks without some decent snow but when bad luck happens, it happens all at once and doesn't take prisoners.

Arctic chill makes a long awaited return to Vermont and plans to mostly stick around while storm potential continues for Thur/Fri

It was yet another holiday period littered with failures for snow lovers in Vermont. Winter did make a return on Sunday and we got a bit of snow for our troubles but it was another decided under-performance and it's on to January and the center cut portion of our cold season.  And fortunately, we will have some cold to go with our January this go round. It won't measure out as historic but I going to project it will best last year's effort which came in at 2 above average. Last year's version of January was notable for the sustained stretch of sub-freezing temperatures we were able to maintain throughout the month. It would certainly be nice match that effort (more unlikely without -AO help) but more importantly we need the snowfall. 

Though many of the warm water feedbacks I often discuss have been working against us this past month and certainly may have been critical in turning the recent holiday week to mush, the involvement of arctic cold is the ingredient likely to spice up the weather map in our favor. The coastal waters along the eastern seaboard are 3-6 degrees above average and this creates a tinderbox-like environment for big east coast storms when arctic chill is added to the mix. Storms need baroclinicity, or a broad region where cold dry air clashes with warm moist ocean air. The New England coastline has always been a geographically pristine area for such activity and our explosive winter storms have become famous enough to earn the region specific term of nor'easter as a result. In the case of this year, the extra few degrees of relative ocean warmth could create some rather special magic and some of this has already started with a strengthening storm to our south that is expected to deliver portions of the Mid-Atlantic with a fierce bout of snow on very short notice. I am hopeful that this trend continues as we progress toward the later part of this week and a potential storm that could lift us away from the unfortunate morass we found ourselves in over the holiday.

In the meantime, our sunshine finally makes a return Monday as promised. The east coast storm will keep most of the clouds and snowfall well to our south and this means crisp, cold, sunshine for much of the day followed by a cold near zero Monday night. Sunshine may give way to some clouds on Tuesday but it will be another quiet and very average day in northern Vermont. Southwest winds are likely to push temperatures past the freezing mark in valley locations Wednesday but the big Chukchi Sea block is forcing the jet stream to work and will allow large amounts of polar energy to move quickly south and east. Taken in the aggregate, the potential storm which is expected to take shape in the Tennessee Valley Thursday before exploding along the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening has shifted a bit to the south and east. Two of the three major ensembles packages have consistently showed a decent hit for much of interior New England with the holdout being the American GFS which has been in and out of this party all along. Given the delicate nature of any situation involving an amplifying polar jet stream, there's actually a decent amount of support for a hit over much of interior New England though the storm will be fast moving and is not expected to get caught up in the maritimes for any period of time. The extra bit of relative warmth in the coastal Atlantic is a big benefit for Vermont in this setup and it certainly keeps the door open for a stronger storm and the famous northward shift that models often undergo late in the game. The timing of all this appears to be Thursday night into Friday with flurries and snow showers continuing into Friday night. If I could pick an over/under right now on accumulation I would say 6 inches with equal chances of besting or underperforming that number prior to the weekend of the 8th/9th.

Garden variety January chill can be expected for the weekend with blustery conditions persisting into early Saturday followed by a calmer day Sunday. The polar jet will retreat into eastern Canada early next week and is expected to deliver New England another and stronger dose of arctic air by the 11th or 12th of the month but there is some concern that a surge of milder temperatures around the 10th could threaten interior New England with a dose of above-freezing temperatures and mixed precipitation. There are no indications of a major rain event but I would categorize this as a slight risk. After that, we should get some help from the PNA and a Pacific jet that is at least somewhat cooperative. Not a bad outlook overall but it would feel a lot better with some results in the bag and they have proved very elusive so far this season.