Snowfall Wednesday and Thursday set to bring us 7-14 inches of snow across the mountains and more farther north

The Wednesday/Thursday weather map wouldn't appear ideal for snowfall at first glance, but we are enjoying a special kind of early December winter weather run and we appear in line to make the most of this event. Low pressure will track over Lake Ontario midday Wednesday and then head close to the Canadian border. This position can leave us on the short side of accumulating snowfall and it certainly isn't optimal in this case. That said, southwesterly flow does not appear to be as well defined as it did a few days ago and models are indicating a decent enough plume of moisture over most of the state. Though temperatures will approach or even exceed the freezing mark in low lying areas Wednesday, temperatures across the high country and certainly ski country will support a more powdery snowfall beginning around 9 am Wednesday and continuing in occasional bursts throughout the day. As the upper air support associated with this feature moves closer to Vermont Wednesday night, the snow intensity should become even more elevation sensitive and certainly capable of producing 5-10 inches of snow by Thursday morning at MRG, half of which occurs during the day Wednesday and half the ensuing night. Expect a lesser 3-5 inch wetter snow in valley locations. 

Better also is the support for more snow showers as the day progresses Thursday. The support for this looks sensational closer to Jay Peak, and we should see some additional accumulation in our region as well with 2-4 inches, most of which falls in the later part of the day as the flow becomes more favorable. We can expect some gusty winds both Wednesday and Thursday with Thursday featuring the colder temperatures and wind chills. Temperatures on Thursday are likely to settle in the teens before dropping into the single digits Friday. I think we are in line for some sunshine to conclude the week thanks to a weaker storm system consolidating clouds and some snow well to our south. 

The upcoming mid-December weekend continues to look wintry with some early sunshine Saturday giving way to clouds. Another buckling of the polar jet is expected to bring both a surge of colder weather and a chance for some snow. Models had been teasing the idea of a bigger storm and although this still appears somewhat possible further south, a lighter snow is more likely over the state of Vermont late Saturday night into early Sunday followed by a blustery and cold weekend conclusion. What a remarkable cold start it has been for all of New England. Early season cold has been very difficult to produce here since the coldest arctic air is required to squeeze through so many open bodies of water that have yet to freeze. We manage to pull it off however and on target to finish the first half of the month at more than 10 below the 30 year average. The second half is not expected to be nearly as chilly with arctic air shifting its focus on western North America. I continue to believe the milder intrusions will be short-lived in New England and longer in duration south of us. Some warm advection snow is possible Tuesday ahead of the first push of milder temperatures and there should be additional chances for winter weather as come colder temperatures make a return around Winter Solstice weekend. 

 

 

 

Ligher snowfalls continue the early winter binge until 12/16 when the outlook turns "less cold"

It was another cold bluebird December powder day Monday across the state of Vermont. It is especially unusual to see cold this intense so early in the winter season since the pattern is required to funnel arctic cold in a very particular direction. We managed to get a widespread outbreak of sub-zero cold Friday morning and a second such occurrence is expected Monday night thanks to the clear skies and light winds. 

Following that sub-zero Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to warm to about 20 degrees in spite of clouds.  Light snow will fall from those clouds later in the evening and accumulate about an inch by Wednesday morning. The ski day Wednesday will feature the mildest weather of the week with readings getting pretty close to the freezing mark as southerly flow tries to establish itself. The milder wind direction is in response to an approaching weather system, the strongest of the week, expected to approach us from the eastern Great Lakes. Recent model runs have managed to move this system a little further south, yet the track is still falling short of idea with the area of low pressure expected to track near the Canadian border Wednesday evening. In spite of this, models still indicate a decent period of snow later Wednesday, enough to produce a 2-4 inch snow. The risk of over-promising on these type of storms is high so I would suggest that although accumulating snow is likely in the MRV, much more is likely from Stowe northward. 

The flow is expected to turn and become west-northwesterly late Wednesday night and with that comes a window where snow showers can be expected. I was hoping this storm would be capable of producing a more extended window, persisting into Thursday, when snow showers might add to the accumulation, but with this event models are limiting this. After the 2-4 late Wednesday, we can expect another 1-4 Wednesday night with higher snow totals farther north. Conditions will be blustery Thursday with readings hovering in the high teens before falling into the single numbers Thursday night. Before I sign off on snowfall for late in the week, it is possible that a smaller disturbance enhances the snow shower activity for Thursday night or early Friday. Later Friday should feature some sunshine however as storm system well south of  us acts as the focusing mechanism for moisture, precipitation and clouds. 

The upcoming weekend is lined up to be very wintry. At the very least we can expect clouds with the chance for some light snow on Saturday. The Sunday weather map consists of a possible more organized storm that could bring snowfall anywhere between some of the bigger east coast cities to interior New England. With the early winter polar jet quite involved in the pattern, getting a handle on the eventual track can take a little longer. Regardless, temperatures will be well below freezing and will land in the teens on the mountain on both the weekend ski days. A strong dose of arctic chill is then expected to get driven into eastern North America by the aforementioned polar jet later Sunday and Sunday night. With that is likely some well below zero wind chills and a chilly Monday December 15th. 

The longer range has shifted to the less cold side in recent days. The pattern across North America is still being anchored by a really nice blocking couplet in the jet stream centered over the middle Pacific. Downstream of that, the cold is indicated to shift its focus on the western part of the continent more, mainly the Pacific Northwest along with the Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. Promising warmer weather for the south-central and southeastern United States is easy, but we still expect arctic cold to remain anchored across most of Canada. The pattern toward the solstice offers the possibility of  short-lived rainy intrusion with two caveats. 1) The milder weather should not persist beyond 1-2 days and the possibility for a bigger snowfall will continue if the dominoes fall the right way.  

Wintry outlook continues into the middle of the month as opening day '25-'26 is announced

Opening Day incoming ! And it's always good to get that announcement before December 10th. Following a bluebird and very cold Friday, with temperatures on the mountain struggling to exceed 10, opening day Saturday should be more comfortable though cloudier as a disturbance well to our north eventually brings some very light snow our way. Don't expect much from this feature, maybe an inch by late Saturday evening. Arctic cold is then reinforced for Sunday, which has the possibility of featuring a period of sunshine. Wind speed should not be too much of an issue after some very cold wind chills early Friday. Winds will be out of the southwest on Saturday and will be a little gusty on the lifts along with temperatures in the 20's. Sunday will be the colder day but with less wind. 

A little more clarity is starting to emerge for next week and mostly in a positive way in terms of how it makes the snowfall outlook appear. Sunday's cold intrusion will tighten its grip on the region Sunday night into Monday, producing a very chilly early December day Monday, our 2nd in 4 days. Once again, temperatures will struggle to reach 10 on the mountain after starting below zero. Any sub-zero is impressive this early in the season since it would happen before arctic typically reaches its peak winter intensity. There are at least 2 weather systems after a sunny day on Monday that could produce snow. A clipper system will bring clouds and some snowfall late on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This system should remain a clipper so this limits the upside potential on snow, but the system after that could evolve into something capable of being more significant. This would be in the time frame of Wednesday and Thursday when parts of eastern North America are set to receive a bit of milder air while Vermont hopefully remains on the snowy side of that equation. The end of next week is likely to conclude colder with the possibility of snow showers as the said colder air again reestablishes itself. 

The longer range is interesting. One of the more important features will be a jet stream block expected to situate over the Chukchi and E Siberian Sea mostly west of the Bering Sea and Alaska. After neutralizing for a few days, the EPO should thus turn negative once again and allow cold air to dominate most of Canada. This above mentioned feature is far enough to the west however to favor cold in western over eastern North America, yet Vermont and much of interior New England sits a favorable location for colder air and additional snowfall. At no point does it look like the cold is forced into a major retreat across the continent and this is very encouraging. We should continue to see snow dot the forecast for the 2nd full weekend of the month and into the week beyond. 

Early season cold expected to take a firm grip over Vermont through at least 12/11 even if snowfall opportunities are on the lighter side

Just a beautiful gentle early winter snow across the entire Mad River Valley on Tuesday. Hard to do better in a typically erratic part of the season and what's even better is that we've got cold locked into place through most of next week. Wednesday is a terrific day to enjoy Tuesday's fallen snow as well. We get some limited sunshine and temperature that mostly land in the 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

Arctic reinforcements arrive Thursday and with them come snow showers and snow squalls. There's a brief window  Thursday afternoon when a burst of snow is likely to get intense, but the arriving airmass is a stable one and should quiet the convective snow shower activity Thursday evening. Expect 1-3 inches across the high country Thursday with an dusting to an inch down low. Thursday night turns very chilly with readings dropping to near zero Friday morning along with strong northwest winds. On Friday however, winds should diminish some and we will left with a cold but bluebird day more typical of the middle of winter. Readings on the mountain will struggle to reach the teens. 

The weekend outlook does not consist of a ton of new accumulating snow. Saturday will feature clouds, temperatures in the 20's and perhaps a period of light snow with little accumulation. Sunday should feature more sun and it again turns colder with more arctic air entrenching itself over Vermont in preparation for the 2nd full week of the month. This period, the 8th through the 12th of the month looks solidly sub-freezing yet the outlook has turned drier from the vantage point of well-organized weather systems. Ensembles do suggest snowfall from multiple clipper systems right now though that type of outlook can evolve quickly as the period continues to get resolved by models. 

The longer range is interesting since we have a really solid core of very cold early season arctic air over the North American continent. The teleconnections, led by the EPO (weak Pacific jet stream) are supportive and most indications are that they turn from favorable to neutral by around the 10th of the month. Clearly though, there are no indications that there is a mechanism in the jet stream that will force a continental type retreat of arctic air. The core of the cold might shift west for a period after the 10th, perhaps enough to allow for a 1-2 day Vermont thaw after next week though indications are it would be very short-lived. It's quite possible that we see no such thaw at our latitude and simply receive another round of decent snow. Again, relative to a typical early December weather situation, it's hard to take too much of an issue with any of this outlook.  

 

Tuesday snowfall is the best of what appears to be a pattern capable of producing a few chances for snow through December 10

December coming in with a bang across Vermont with a terrific looking pattern featuring plenty of cold air. We can expect most of the first 10 days of the month to stay sub-freezing and this is a major victory considering the adversarial relationship this time of the winter season has with Vermont. Most importantly, we get a chance to add some depth to the healthy base of November snow that has already been provided to us (at least across high elevations). There are several chances for snow with some events clearly looking better than others now. 

A plethora of Saturday college football games featured snowfall and that system will push some snow into Vermont Sunday. Unfortunately, we can't really turn the flow out of that nasty southwesterly direction and those systems typically turn out dry for us. We can expect some on and off light snow and about an inch during the day followed by another inch Sunday night. Cold, early season arctic air then envelops the region for Monday with temperatures hovering in the high teens on the mountain for much of the day. The day should feature some sunshine, especially after the early morning. 

The storm that certainly has my attention approaches on Tuesday. We've had a promising set of model simulations and even 1 or 2 that certainly fit the "eye candy" category. This is a pretty standard variety east coast weather system however with low pressure consolidating near the Virginia tidewater region midday Tuesday and then strengthening as it moves up along the New England coastline. We need a northward shift for this storm to become the 1-2 foot powder producing snowstorm it certainly could become. When the polar jet is involved sometimes that can be more difficult, but considering the early stature of the winter season I would not rule a heavier snow total out at all. As it stands, the safer bet is for a 6-12 inch steady snow beginning around daybreak Tuesday and persisting into the evening. Wednesday appears dry with temperatures making a run into the 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

The 2nd surge of arctic air should arrive late on Thurday and bring with it a brief period of snowfall, possibly in the form of some quick hitting squalls. Some early December sunshine is likely for Friday, which should again be a very chilly early winter day with temperatures holding in the teens and wind chills well below zero. As far as snow chances, one storm to watch late on Friday that may or may not stay to our south followed by better storm potential on the 7th and 8th of the month. 

The colder pattern is being anchored by a beautiful high latitude blocking set up over Alaska and now the Bering Sea with a very chill jet stream over the Pacific. This is allowing arctic cold to flood much of Canada with no real mechanism to force it into retreat mode through the first 10 days of December. There are signs on some of the longer range simulations that the cold will shift west after December 10 without totally giving up a presence in eastern North America. Certainly an excellent start to the season. 

Winter 2025-26, already off to a strong start, has some support to be a stellar snow season

Welcome to another incoming weather season powder and Mad River Glen enthusiasts. Never does it cease to amaze me how fast the descent in to winter takes place. It was only about 7 weeks ago when  much of northern New England was finished a multi-week stretch of gentle 70-80 degree warm autumn weather. As of the middle of November, deep snow has enveloped the high country of northern Vermont. Perhaps not enough to call it Snowvember 2, but enough to send the snowpack at the stake at Mt Mansfield soaring to a mid November record. 

 

 

Drought concerns have unfortunately replaced the run of recent flooding events over the past few years. October was a healthy wet month over all of northern Vermont with most areas procuring 125-200 percent of normal rainfall and this has finally begun to ease drought conditions and we can only hope that a season featuring heavy snowfall will end any drought entirely. Temperatures have been up and down throughout the calendar year. The cold start to 2025 gave way to a mild March. Bouts of cool weather in both May and early June gave way to record heat right after the summer solstice. This was then followed by warm weather in July which gave way to a cooler finish to the summer season in late August and early September. The foliage season, from a color standpoint was stunted by the dry weather but the times of first frost/freezes have been relatively normal and the Vermont landscape has the "ready for winter" look. 

Last winter exceeded many preseason expectations and it seems to have also fueled a better set of expectations for the current year. Last year was also one which defied expectations regarding ENSO with much of the season remaining relatively neutral. A weak La Nina has finally developed this summer and although some gradual strengthening has been observed, conditions remain just a shade under what I would consider to be a "moderate" ENSO event. Personally, I consider strong ENSO events of both varieties to have adverse impacts on winter weather for different reasons. Strong Pacific forcing during El Nino events often inhibit the southward progression of arctic air even as they strongly fuel the southern branch of the jet stream which can in turn lead to many east coast snow events. La Nina winter seasons are very often characterized by a strong buildup of cold over Canada but the stronger Nina seasons have been known to feature persistent southeast ridging over the North American continent. This can have the impact of severely limiting the winter below 39 N (let's call this Baltimore, MD) while Vermont repeatedly fends off inland runners that often produce some snow followed by ice and rain. I find the weaker La Nina winters preferable for this very reason. We want a jet stream capable of allowing for a buildup of arctic cold across the northern latitudes of North America, but not one strong enough to entirely eliminate the concept of split flow in the jet stream. We've really seen La Nina go both ways in Vermont and the relationship I was alluding to in this paragraph is hardly perfect. We've had some of our most historic snow seasons during significant La Nina events and also some of the worst seasons. I've also watched over hyped weaker La Nina winters become big disappointments. All we can do is use the data we have and make the best probabilistic-based guess.  

 

 

There's a happy ending in this story. The snowiest winters at MRG and northern Vermont more generally have featured similar ENSO conditions. The two standouts are 1970-1971 and 2000-2001 which are easily top 5 winters in our 76 winter dataset and maybe top 2. 2016-2017 was another winter with a similar La Nina. We had some incredible periods of snow with two extended blowtorch interruptions. 1996-1997 was similar in that regard and featured the "extension" with deep snow well into the middle of spring. The winter's of 1988-89 and 2011-12 serve as a reminder however that this relationship can break down quite easily. Overall though, we are in a good place from the standpoint of ENSO with the chances for a snowy winter more elevated. 

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation  (PDO) and state of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific continues to sing a less happy tune. We managed to record some of the highest indices I've ever seen over the summer months, but have managed to bring the values down considerably in the recent months. The situation in the eastern Pacific, closer to Norrth America has been encouraging perhaps suggesting that the index might be ready to flip. What was most encouraging was an area of warm water that seemed to be developing over the Gulf of Alaska though that has been neutralized in recent weeks. It's the central Pacific which seems to be the driving force behind the positive values with very warm water concentrated near the IDL (180 Longitude). In totality, the changes in the eastern Pacific make the story look more encouraging than prior winters but the warmth in the central Pacific can't be neglected. I would imagine it playing a disruptive influence on the jet stream, shortening the duration of colder patterns which is somewhat typical during most La Nina winters. 

SST Anomaly

 The buildup of snow and  ice has managed to proceed in a fairly typical way this autumn. One has to make statements adjusting for the fact that climate change has had a material impact on ice coverage across the arctic regions during the late summer months. With that qualifier in mind, we managed to retain ice well this summer relative to recent prior summers. We then proceeded to begin building ice over the arctic regions on schedule, but in recent weeks, notable anomalous warmth in the arctic has slowed the expansion of ice and we again are challenging record lows for November for coverage. Snowfall has been better and expanded at a relatively normal pace. The coverage of snow across the northern hemisphere was rounded to 18 millions of square km which is average. Recall last  year that we were very slow to freeze the Hudson Bay which still showed some open water even in late January. Interestingly, both years that were uncharacteristically slow were exceptional snow years in Vermont (2011 and 2025). I have entirely no explanation for this and only point it out because it is likely to be another slow year unless the expected cold weather in eastern Canada early this December can expand the ice very rapidly. 

 

 

Our next section tries to "count cards" or assess some of the recent characteristics in the weather pattern as a means of predicting the future. I find there are times it's easier to simply go through this exercise than trying to lean too heavily on some poorly understood variable which can sometimes become the "hot item" in seasonal weather prediction. I've been watching a few things this fall with one being the drought which has had such a broad impact on upstate New York and interior New England. Though the water deficits remain, the weather pattern has turned in accordance with what we might expect in a La Nina season. Interior sections of the northeast are seeing precipitation and should continue to see such in December. I'll preface the next statement with some caution, but it's very encouraging to see eastern North America be a favorite spot for cool weather in a relative sense. The warm almost always outweighs the cold because again, climate change, but the long wave weather pattern can still have propensity to focus the warmth or the cool weather in certain locations and it seems, for the time being that eastern North America is the spot. Last winter turned out to be surprisingly cold also as you might recall, but in the period from March through July, western North America was the cooler part of the continent. By the middle of August, we saw a switch and in spite of a very warm interruption in late September and early October, the cool train has been on the schedule more than the warm one. 

Going to bring one more item to the seasonal forecast discussion and that relates to what make last season so spectacular. Can we pull off the trick again? It's a bit cruel to the snow lovers along the coast, but it proved be decisively important for us the last few seasons. Once again, can we kill the coastal storm ? This relationship has been utterly fascinating to me and certainly educational. Even as widespread cold gripped huge swaths of the eastern United States last year, a coastal storm and big city snow never really materialized. Models advertised several times, the internet hypesters climbed on board a few times and in the end snowfall was very limited. Not the case however across Vermont where every clipper seemed to over-deliver which is a striking contrast to all those winters where it seemed the clipper might be gone for good. The reality is that the clipper and the coastal have a relationship and both can't occupy the same space and there are winters where one is preferred over the other. It's a bit beyond my pay grade as a non-PHD level to do an appropriate analysis as to why this is. My intuition tells me it's a local sea surface temperature thing in the coastal Atlantic but I can't say this with confidence. I can say I am watching closely however. We saw two "Miller-A" style coastal storms in October. Those types of events are usually good for everyone, especially for us, but we didn't see any of that last year. Do we see more of that this year or is it a continuation of the trend we saw last year with limited coastal snow. It will hurt some feelings, but coastal pain is MRG's gain. 

With all that said we can make a forecast for the winter. Though promising sustained cold weather would be a bridge too far, I tend to believe the following winter will more closely resemble 2024-25 than the three mild winters prior to that. We managed to isolate the mild weather last  year to November, March and the Christmas holiday and with November hitting the books as a cold month, we will likely face a milder period either later in December or in early January. Still, with the ENSO under control, the PDO situation a bit adverse and the propensity of the long wave pattern to support relative chill in eastern North America, a winter with closer to normal temperatures appears more probable than an above normal winter.  Regarding snowfall, we can hang our hat on two important items. The first is the weaker La Nina and the snowy winters that have occurred in similar ENSO years such as 1970-71, 2000-2001, 2007-08, 2010-11 and 2016-17, the second is the similar sea surface temperature configuration in the coastal western Atlantic Ocean which would suggest it's another clipper over coastal situation. This latter part of the statement is some hypothesizing on my part, but so is seasonal forecasting as a whole. You expect to get surprised and hope it comes in the right direction. Enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday folks and welcome to another season. 

 

 

 

2024-2025 was a "throwback" winter in many ways and one of the best in years !

If I could describe the way many folks conduct daily banter and conversation especially with our oldest friends, a substantial percentage always seems dedicated to discussing "the way things used to be" and I would imagine that every generation has their own special reverence for how great things were 20, 30 or 40 years ago. I am fascinated with this on a philosophical level, but I am not going down the road when discussing our recent winter season; instead, I would offer that the same applies when it comes to talking about weather. Folks love to talk about the way things used to be with weather and folks that ski at Mad River Glen love to talk about the way our ski seasons used to be. If  you've spent anytime wondering we got a good answer with the weather we just had this past winter. It was very much a throwback winter and I'll go through the reasons why. Though we didn't have the big March that many recent winters have featured, we had a succession of months December, January and February, that were the coldest in 3 years and the season was highlighted by a nearly 2 month period without rain that started on the first day of the year. 

 

 

The colder weather is certainly the more obvious "throwback" part of the recent season. 5 consecutive winters prior to this one have featured mild temperatures, some extremely mild and many months within this 5 year stretch rank as the warmest or top 5 warmest months recorded. This past December, January and February broke from that and absolutely defied many of the preseason expectations and assumptions I made in November. One of the nicest things about doing this weather blog as a fun contribution is that when the weather surprises to the cold/snow side I can spend my time enjoying a bad forecast rather than anything else. In this case, it was the persistence of the cold which came as a huge surprise to me given some of the preseason obstacles. More on that in a bit. 

The 2nd "throwback" aspect of the recent winter was the return of the "clipper". The famous quote attributed to Mark Twain certainly applies here - reports of the clipper's death have been greatly exaggerated. In reality, the clipper and the classic nor'easter have a bit of a rivalry with one seemingly coming at the expense of the other. Since the turn of the century, many winters have been highlighted by memorable nor'easters and while some have delivered big snow to northern Vermont, others have missed the state entirely. In the case of the latter it is a double whammy since a miss on a classic coastal type storm means little or no snow for Vermont with nearby clippers getting zapped of energy and moisture. This winter featured the opposite. It was like pulling teeth to get any coastal storm to form. Many of the storms advertised on model simulations fell apart and as that happened, every clipper found a way to deliver for the northern Green Mountains. It made for a fantastic mid-winter snow season for Mad River Glen and even better for spots like Stowe, Smuggs and Jay Peak which in the latter case saw 400 inches of snow. 

 

Lower preseason expectations were predicated on the assumption that the PDO index would remain very negative through the winter season. Inter-season noise in the index is difficult to predict, yet there was still good reasons to make that assumption. The autumn values for the PDO rivaled some of the lowest ever recorded dating back over 100 years. Additionally, the previous several winters with similarly amplified negative PDO values have featured rather erratic weather patterns consistent with what you might expect. This past winter did not follow with the recent prior winters however and the PDO which began the winter season by recording a -2.39 index ended with a much closer to neutral -0.49 index. Furthermore, the index rise happened quickly and early so that it likely wasn't a substantial driving force on the weather pattern by January when the index had risen to -0.55. In reality, it's hard to quantify how much of a force the index is playing on the weather, it's merely an educated guess. Regardless, it was refreshing to see more a more neutralized sea surface temperature configuration in the Pacific and adverse upstream forces were not as evident this winter relative to recent prior seasons.

The word "neutral" was in fact a big theme of the recent winter. Expectations for the ENSO (La Nina or El Nino) were high prior to the season. A lot of winter forecasts priced a sizable La Nina into expectations and that broke down rather early; in fact, by the time I did the preseason outlook I had tempered my expectations of such an occurrence. It proved to be a worthy realization since the ENSO more or less remained neutral through the winter though there has been a recent turn toward La Nina the last few weeks and this is worth watching for hurricane season and next winter. La Nina can mean very active hurricane seasons due to a less shearing ambient jet stream environment. A moderate or strong La Nina for the winter can be hit and miss. Even the good winters however are often rudely interrupted by rainy or icy intrusions. 

November began in unspectacular fashion and though certainly ended colder than it started, we didn't have the multiple feet of snow that November 2023 brought to give the season an early boost. Still, we got a storm at the end of the month and began December with some snow on the ground. It was at that point when the season began to show signs that it would diverge both from prevailing expectation and from recent trends. The jet in the Pacific weakened substantially and provided support for colder weather for the first two weeks of the month. Snowfall for the first week of the month accompanied the colder weather and the pattern should have delivered a nice storm on December 11th; instead, the storm took a rather impolite northward turn and brought us a widespread heavy rain for the entirety of the day. The cold rain did not melt off all the snow and the precipitation ended as some snow on the 12th, setting us up for a cold bluebird mid month weekend. The subsequent winter solstice weekend was the best of the month and foreshadowed many winning weekends to come later in the winter. Snowfall late in that week preceded some of the coldest weather of the season, which landed on us on the evening of the solstice and brought temperatures down to 10 below on the 23rd. The days prior to Christmas featured an old fashion New England cold hole. The upper air pattern pointed to warm, but without much wind, temperatures in Vermont were stuck in the 20's during the day while falling to below zero at night. It all made for one of the better Christmas skiing days in several years. Unfortunately, our luck would run out with a wind driven rain on the 30th accompanying near 50-degree temperatures. Much of the exposed snow was wiped out by New Year's Eve and we, as we often have been, had to start from a very minimal base in 2025. 

2025 brought instant improvement and most importantly, some sustained cold weather powered again by a loosened Pacific jet stream and a supportive AO. Following a December that featured daytime temperatures that were more than 6 colder vs 2023,  January delivered the same and was more than 10 colder during the overnights. The intensity became an afterthought verses the sustainability, since readings remained below the freezing mark on the mountain for the entirety of the month and well into February. The snowfall situation, which was pretty dire on New Year's Day, improved immediately beginning with a few inches on the first and even more on the 2nd of the month. The personality of the winter then became more evident as several smaller more clipper-like disturbances consistently overperformed for Mad River Glen while snow lovers in coastal areas of New England grew impatient. It was "the clippper" returning to its former glory that really made January and the ensuing February special and much of the snow fell on the weekends. The first full weekend of 2025 featured single digit temperatures with several inches of cold smoke. More snow on the 7th, 8th and 9th  led us to another spectacular  2nd weekend of the month featuring more comfortable temperatures. By the middle of the month, snow conditions were amazing and we continued to overperform on the smaller events, scoring over a foot of snow on the 14th and 15th of the month. The subsequent weekend was yet another winner with more snow atop the several feet that had already fallen. A widespread outbreak of arctic cold, encompassing a large section of North America managed to dry things out in Vermont starting on MLK day . Accumulating snow didn't return until Sunday, January 26th, though again, it was snow rather than something else and this snow continued to fall for many of the remaining days of what was a fantastic January. 

There were ominous signs on some of the model simulations for early February though cold weather never appeared as if it would totally relinquish its grip on New England and it never really did until very late. Amazingly, much of the month was even better than January. 14 of the first 18 days in February featured accumulating snow. Smaller events continued to deliver and some bigger more organized events also brought snow to interior New England. Much like January, the weekend was the time to ski, and the first and 2nd of the month, though cold, had some fresh snow once again. The morning of February 2nd was the coldest of the season with readings reaching 15 below, but sunshine and calm winds and then evening snow made a quick memory of that. Some of the best days of the season happened in the 4 day period between February 6th and 9th. New snow every day, comfortable mid-winter temperatures and a well established base put an exclamation mark on what was nearly 40 days of sub-freezing temperatures and rain/ice free weather. The 2nd week of the month did, in fact, feature some ice and rain threats. The first came on the 13th, a snow event that turned to a period of sleet though no ice. The 2nd was the most anticipated event of the season and certainly the most organized and strongest winter storm. Cold arctic air settled over the region on the 14th and provided an excellent overrunning surface for the storm coming at us from the west. Arctic air successfully fought off the warm air, especially over northern Vermont where Jay Peak was the big winner. Mad River glen saw heavy, wind driven snow, a few hours of sleet on the afternoon of Sunday February 16th and then more snow for early Monday, February 17th. The sleet compressed snowfall totals though it was still the biggest of the season. The outstanding conditions resulting from that storm continued through a cold ensuing week. The shallow arctic cold did dry conditions out and it was a windy stretch making the wind chill situation a bit challenging. As a whole, February was one of the best months in the past 10-15 years and might have been #1 except for the last week. Forecast models showed a promising situation, but we lost AO support in rather dramatic fashion and mild air enveloped much of the country, even in northern Vermont where the streak of sub-freezing mountain weather finally broke on the 25th. We also saw too different periods of rain although the highest elevations managed to avoid most of it. 

We got one final taste of mid-winter weather on the first weekend of March (the 1st and 2nd) and then the pattern relented and did so quite dramatically. Thanks to the deep base, the warm weather that enveloped the region in March brought some terrific ski days of a different kind. I was trying to keep score at home and counted 7 days where we saw both sunshine and 55-plus temperatures. It doesn't seem like much but that's actually a fantastic number for March. The end of the month featured 2 events with heavy snowfall but you had to get on the mountain early before precipitation changed to ice and rain. We saw a bit of everything in early April. Our coldest temperature of the month was set early on April 2nd and 36 hours later the area was getting doused with heavy rain, thunderstorms and 60-degree temperatures. Some occasional snowfall and chilly temperatures kept deep snow on the mountain through April 16th when a warmer pattern settled over the region. The Mt Mansfield snowstake peaked in late February but made a late March and early April recovery and very nearly set a seasonal high. As of this writing, snowfall at the stake is finally ready to dive under 20 inches. 

My big take away from this recent season was this "throwback" quality to the winter. The core winter months (December, January & February) were all colder than the year prior and the clipper made a return. The interplay between the "clipper" and the "coastal" I find especially fascinating. They can't really seem to coexist. Being that the coastal, were it to be present, easily would assume the role of most dominant weather feature on the weather map, the presence or absence of this feature directly would impact snowfall from the clipper-type systems. Being that the "coastal" was absent this year, the clipper was allowed to deposit snowfall on the Green Mountains and this snowfall, quite routinely, outperformed expectations. Seems like a good academic research project from someone capable of performing such a study (certainly above my pay grade from an intellectual standpoint). My intuition tells me that the absence of coastal storms this year relates to specific sea surface temperature patterns in the coastal Atlantic Ocean waters, but I could be wrong. During the height of our glory, early in February, models were predicting over 30 inches of snow for parts of the New York City region and all but 3 inches failed to materialize. Most of the snow fell over Vermont. 

Thanks again to all the readers for allowing this to continue and a specific thank you for allowing me the liberty of playing all that music. 75 different songs in 75 different years of MRG operations. It was a fun distraction from other stuff and educational. Enjoy the summer !