Too much mild air has made it deep into New England and we are not getting the help we need from the track of the storm on Thursday. It is a moist storm system which will track right over interior New England, normally not all that terrible but without any available cold we should prepare ourselves for rain. Some drizzle or freezing drizzle will commence as early as Wednesday morning and temperatures will climb above freezing as heavier precipitation arrives during the evening. About a half an inch of rain can be expected Wednesday night into early Thursday followed by a break in the precipitation while the atmosphere slowly cools from top to bottom. Finally, some snow will begin later Thursday which should continue into Friday thanks to the benefits of terrain enhancement. Terrain induced snow has been held to a minimum this year and the case can be made that the unstable layer of the lower atmosphere will not be enough to support a big accumulation but 2-4 inches by early Friday is a reasonable expectation all of which will be very much needed after the rain.
We have been waiting for February 12th in order to obtain more activity in the pattern and activity we will get. We will still have the benefit of the block stretching from eastern Canada to Greenland and this will ensure a winter-like regime. This and a relatively consolidated and active west to east jet stream will give us a few chances at storms. There are three in total worthy of mention and the question with all three is whether or not moisture can reach MRG's latitude. If the president's week part of the calendar is defined by the period beginning Friday the 13th and ending Sunday the 22nd then my prediction would be for 3 powder days and no rain. We will likely however miss 2 of the three storms mentioned and catch at least the healthy northern edge of one storm system.
Storm #1
Will start as a relatively disorganized area of moisture, much of which will stay well south of New England. By the weekend, low pressure will try and organize and move up the Ohio Valley and allow moisture in the Mid-Atlantic to make a northward push into New England. This system may not be strong enough and the precipitation shield may not be large enough for snow to make it deep into Vermont but we have seen this movie before and to say MRG has no chance for snowfall is both overly presumptuous and silly.
Storm # 2
Is a very interesting system which will carry with it a well developed area of low pressure even as it crosses into the Mississippi Valley around the time of Tuesday February 17th. This will mean big snow for a big part of the Midwest, an area of the country more accustomed to snowfall of much smaller amounts. As the storm moves into the Mid-Atlantic it will interact with the Atlantic Ocean and deepen rather quickly. A garden variety system with this storm track might fail to bring moisture into interior New England but this storm might do a bit better than garden variety. Since the weather system has such potential the range of outcomes stretches from dry weather to 20-plus inches of snow.
Storm # 3
Would arrive on the east coast just prior to or during the weekend of the 21st-22nd. It is a bit early to even characterize this one but it is another chance in a period where we will gladly accept as many chances as possible
In the event that we miss storm #3 or any of the other systems we can be assured of a continuous period of below freezing temperatures although nothing extreme. As I mentioned in the last post, the negative NAO is so strong that it will in effect block extreme arctic air from getting involved in the pattern. I don't think president's week skiers will complain but we will need the snowfall and all of it at least for now remains a question mark.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Mild weather clashes with negative NAO and makes for a tough call for Feb 12
This is a date we have been singling-out for a few posts as a time in which the pattern will turn active. By the looks of things this appears to be a good prognostication but the specifics regarding the storm on February 12th remained veiled in a cloud of fog and all we can do is lay out a few possibilities and wait a day or two. Until then we can expect temperatures to take a few very sharp up and down turns. It will start when the mild weather gives way to snow showers and a gusty and chilly wind on Sunday. The ski day Sunday could very well start with a little corn and end with a little powder if we are lucky enough to get a heavy snow shower or two during the middle part of the day.
February 12th and the varying scenarios
Temperatures will remain chilly Sunday night, Monday and Monday night but will make a quick recovery Tuesday as readings by then approach the freezing mark. Wednesday could the turn out quite balmy with temperatures reaching the 40's on mild southwesterly breezes. We have made mention of the most dominant feature on the North American weather map - a block in the jet stream which encompasses the vast area from eastern Canada through the Davis straights and into Greenland. This block represents an expansive area of unseasonably warm and stable weather in that part of the world but it also has significant ramifications on our part of the world. It is a feature partly to blame for the mild weather but west to east moving weather systems will have a tough time penetrating this feature with any success and they are thus forced to take "the Holland Tunnel" and dive underneath. Such will be the case with the February 12th case or at least I think. The actual specific track remains important and is still very much up in the air. The amount of available cold is also very important this too remains a question since only a limited amount will be present upon the storms arrival on Thursday. A few days ago I made a guess that the storm may produce some rain then some wet snow and then powder snow and our trusted friend the European model is suggesting such a scenario or something close to that anyway. Guidance from other models have varied from run to run but have been somewhat more pessimistic including more warmth and more rain.
President's Day and the week that follows
February 12th will mark a temporary end to the mild weather. The cold that follows will be far from severe as the above mentioned block will actually act as an arctic blockade. The mostly Canadian air that will cover the region should ensure that precipitation through February 21st stays in the form of snow. The track of storms in this period could be rather suppressed since weather systems will be forced to go farther and farther underneath the large jet stream blocking feature. Since there will be multiple systems crossing the country between the 14th and 21st of February it is reasonable to expect a fruitful outcome from one of them at least either during the President's day weekend or the week that follows. We have gotten some late inning drama from a few storms this year and perhaps Presidents week will provide an opportunity for more.
February 12th and the varying scenarios
Temperatures will remain chilly Sunday night, Monday and Monday night but will make a quick recovery Tuesday as readings by then approach the freezing mark. Wednesday could the turn out quite balmy with temperatures reaching the 40's on mild southwesterly breezes. We have made mention of the most dominant feature on the North American weather map - a block in the jet stream which encompasses the vast area from eastern Canada through the Davis straights and into Greenland. This block represents an expansive area of unseasonably warm and stable weather in that part of the world but it also has significant ramifications on our part of the world. It is a feature partly to blame for the mild weather but west to east moving weather systems will have a tough time penetrating this feature with any success and they are thus forced to take "the Holland Tunnel" and dive underneath. Such will be the case with the February 12th case or at least I think. The actual specific track remains important and is still very much up in the air. The amount of available cold is also very important this too remains a question since only a limited amount will be present upon the storms arrival on Thursday. A few days ago I made a guess that the storm may produce some rain then some wet snow and then powder snow and our trusted friend the European model is suggesting such a scenario or something close to that anyway. Guidance from other models have varied from run to run but have been somewhat more pessimistic including more warmth and more rain.
President's Day and the week that follows
February 12th will mark a temporary end to the mild weather. The cold that follows will be far from severe as the above mentioned block will actually act as an arctic blockade. The mostly Canadian air that will cover the region should ensure that precipitation through February 21st stays in the form of snow. The track of storms in this period could be rather suppressed since weather systems will be forced to go farther and farther underneath the large jet stream blocking feature. Since there will be multiple systems crossing the country between the 14th and 21st of February it is reasonable to expect a fruitful outcome from one of them at least either during the President's day weekend or the week that follows. We have gotten some late inning drama from a few storms this year and perhaps Presidents week will provide an opportunity for more.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Cold air to relent this weekend but no big snows or rains until around the time of Feb 12
Vermont is back in the grip of some reasonably strong chill although as the saying goes "its all relative". Cold air has graced us with its presence in a much more intense form already this winter so I would say we have acclimatized. Still temperatures will plummet to -10 Thursday morning and struggle into the single numbers during the day making Thursday the coldest of the week. Snowfall will be limited to flurries throughout the week as it appears the lowest unstable layer of the atmosphere will be too shallow to support terrain induced snows of any magnitude.
Temperatures will make a nice recovery this weekend, possibly touching the 30-degree mark Saturday and into the 30's Sunday. Aside from the flurries, we won't get any new snow on Saturday and we will have to settle for the higher-angled February sun which should be prevalent throughout much of the day. Temperatures will hover near the freezing mark Saturday night into early Sunday thanks to the first of two pushes of milder temperatures. A weak weather system will pass to the north and may bring some light snow Saturday night that could even evolve into a light rain at low elevations Sunday morning. A light snow accumulation is possible by first tracks time Sunday but the snow could also be wet in nature and the milder day time readings during the day Sunday could further soften the base.
Negative NAO must save our snow next week
The prevailing overall pattern for the weekend into the early next week consists of a negative NAO of considerable strength but with most of the mid-latitude jet stream energy in the west. This allows for the push of milder temperatures over the weekend which will be followed by a return to colder readings Monday and Monday night followed again my a second push of milder temperatures Tuesday or Wednesday. This second push of mild air precedes a more interesting weather situation as a sizable weather system may cross the country. The fear of course is that it will reach interior New England as the relative warmth peaks and the result will thus be rain. This is a valid concern but as I mentioned in previous posts we can lean heavily on the negative NAO in such circumstances and the blocking could very well act as an important ally. The possibilities include a great variety of outcomes but if I can make a preliminary guess then I would venture to say that some rain to heavy snow type of event is very possible and quite possibly the most possible of all outcomes.
President's Day weekend looks active at an early glance
I will also stick with the notion that the date of February 12th will mark the start of more active weather which should continue into the weekend of the 14th and 15th. This would mean a second or follow-up storm within a day or two of February 15th. President's day skiing thus as a lot of potential and a very early look at President's week appears to have promise but it is a long way off.
Temperatures will make a nice recovery this weekend, possibly touching the 30-degree mark Saturday and into the 30's Sunday. Aside from the flurries, we won't get any new snow on Saturday and we will have to settle for the higher-angled February sun which should be prevalent throughout much of the day. Temperatures will hover near the freezing mark Saturday night into early Sunday thanks to the first of two pushes of milder temperatures. A weak weather system will pass to the north and may bring some light snow Saturday night that could even evolve into a light rain at low elevations Sunday morning. A light snow accumulation is possible by first tracks time Sunday but the snow could also be wet in nature and the milder day time readings during the day Sunday could further soften the base.
Negative NAO must save our snow next week
The prevailing overall pattern for the weekend into the early next week consists of a negative NAO of considerable strength but with most of the mid-latitude jet stream energy in the west. This allows for the push of milder temperatures over the weekend which will be followed by a return to colder readings Monday and Monday night followed again my a second push of milder temperatures Tuesday or Wednesday. This second push of mild air precedes a more interesting weather situation as a sizable weather system may cross the country. The fear of course is that it will reach interior New England as the relative warmth peaks and the result will thus be rain. This is a valid concern but as I mentioned in previous posts we can lean heavily on the negative NAO in such circumstances and the blocking could very well act as an important ally. The possibilities include a great variety of outcomes but if I can make a preliminary guess then I would venture to say that some rain to heavy snow type of event is very possible and quite possibly the most possible of all outcomes.
President's Day weekend looks active at an early glance
I will also stick with the notion that the date of February 12th will mark the start of more active weather which should continue into the weekend of the 14th and 15th. This would mean a second or follow-up storm within a day or two of February 15th. President's day skiing thus as a lot of potential and a very early look at President's week appears to have promise but it is a long way off.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Tuesday storm too far east and some milder temps may follow this week's chill
And by not updating the blog when i should have been I have avoided some of the back and forth drama with this weather system. This is a storm which will start as a disorganized area of precipitation in the southeast and then get a big kick in the pants as strong upper level energy from Manitoba injects itself into the playing field. The storm will grow rapidly into a classic noreaster but its track is too far east for a major Vermont impact and snow from the storm will be limited to areas such as Cape Cod if even that. Temperatures have warmed above the freezing mark on Sunday for the first time in over a month and will make a gradual descent Monday followed by a rapid decent back into frigid territory on Tuesday. I don't expect the light snow or flurries to amount to much Monday or Tuesday and temperatures will fall through the teens on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be bone chilling with temperatures in the single numbers through much of the day and well below zero at night. Wind chill temps late Tuesday into Wednesday will be even lower.
Mild air makes a push at us this weekend into next week but hopefully without the rain
A strong negative NAO has established itself and will act as the regions "insurance policy" through the first half of February. I put it this way because underneath the blocking across the Davis Straits and Greenland will be a changeable jet stream. One capable of producing a big storm last week followed by milder weather Superbowl Sunday into Monday and then much colder weather for the balance of the week. The colder weather is of course the result of a big trough amplification but this regime will not get any reinforcement and a series of Pacific impulses will again put the center of attention on the west for powder beginning this weekend while the east sees another push of milder temperatures. I have faith in downstream northern latitude blocking and the negative NAO and I continue to think that it will prove instrumental in avoiding any big time rain events even if the weather turns mild for a few days between the 6th-10th of the month. Systems with any real moisture will be shunted southward and be forced under the blocking to the north. I can see temperatures reaching the 40's for as many as 2 days in this stretch up through the 10th and there may be a little rain but I don't a base killing Christmas debacle part II. In terms of snowfall, we actually may get a few inches in front of the milder push of air going into the weekend. Models are then hinting at a more organized system early next week (Feb 9th) which will require help from the NAO to produce as I mentioned.
In to middle February
As the blocking continues to hold its ground after the 10th I would expect the situation to get more exciting. Long range ensembles can only assess the situation loosely but there are indications that energy from the Pacific will pass through the Rockies and across the country more fluidly. This will mean another period of more active weather beginning around the 11th or 12th of the month. We have not had the benefit of much of a southern branch this year and have relied on a consolidated but not overbearing Pacific jet which has sent a few healthy snow producers across the country and into New England. The snowfall contrast from north to south because of this lacking southern branch is dramatic but we are not complaining nor should we be surprised. The lack of a southern branch of the jet is tied closely to the lack of an El Nino which has helped allow the cold to be more dominant this year. The lack of rain/ice over the last month can be attibuted to the weaker La Nina. This may have helped produce a drier month of January but after the storm last week I will happily trade less precipitation and give up the ice and rain.
Mild air makes a push at us this weekend into next week but hopefully without the rain
A strong negative NAO has established itself and will act as the regions "insurance policy" through the first half of February. I put it this way because underneath the blocking across the Davis Straits and Greenland will be a changeable jet stream. One capable of producing a big storm last week followed by milder weather Superbowl Sunday into Monday and then much colder weather for the balance of the week. The colder weather is of course the result of a big trough amplification but this regime will not get any reinforcement and a series of Pacific impulses will again put the center of attention on the west for powder beginning this weekend while the east sees another push of milder temperatures. I have faith in downstream northern latitude blocking and the negative NAO and I continue to think that it will prove instrumental in avoiding any big time rain events even if the weather turns mild for a few days between the 6th-10th of the month. Systems with any real moisture will be shunted southward and be forced under the blocking to the north. I can see temperatures reaching the 40's for as many as 2 days in this stretch up through the 10th and there may be a little rain but I don't a base killing Christmas debacle part II. In terms of snowfall, we actually may get a few inches in front of the milder push of air going into the weekend. Models are then hinting at a more organized system early next week (Feb 9th) which will require help from the NAO to produce as I mentioned.
In to middle February
As the blocking continues to hold its ground after the 10th I would expect the situation to get more exciting. Long range ensembles can only assess the situation loosely but there are indications that energy from the Pacific will pass through the Rockies and across the country more fluidly. This will mean another period of more active weather beginning around the 11th or 12th of the month. We have not had the benefit of much of a southern branch this year and have relied on a consolidated but not overbearing Pacific jet which has sent a few healthy snow producers across the country and into New England. The snowfall contrast from north to south because of this lacking southern branch is dramatic but we are not complaining nor should we be surprised. The lack of a southern branch of the jet is tied closely to the lack of an El Nino which has helped allow the cold to be more dominant this year. The lack of rain/ice over the last month can be attibuted to the weaker La Nina. This may have helped produce a drier month of January but after the storm last week I will happily trade less precipitation and give up the ice and rain.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Storm is delivering, not much else to say except 10-20 remains a good range
and the this range would increase except I am a bit concerned that the mid level center of this storm will pass relatively close to the mountain. Snow will continue to fall at very good rate through the rest of the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening with accumulations close to the bottom of our range. The proximity of the mid level center of this storm can also mean that we can get impacted by a dry slot as the storms moist conveyor gets pushed too far to the north. This may happen briefly late this evening before snow returns to MRG for several of the AM hours Thursday.
The energy and moisture with the weekend system will remain off the Atlantic coast. There is a weak disturbance which will help solidify the upper trough in the east and this will leave a window of "terrain-induced opportunity" early Saturday. That was flowery but it translates to a light accumulation of snow early Saturday along with some chilly temperatures. Readings this weekend will be a few degrees below zero in the morning and rise into the teens Saturday and 20's Sunday.
Models are having a bit of fun with a system early next week. It will be milder by then and the possibilities are very wide ranging and they do include ice and rain and one end and all snow on the other.
Have fun with the snow and I will try to give a more in depth update on Friday.
The energy and moisture with the weekend system will remain off the Atlantic coast. There is a weak disturbance which will help solidify the upper trough in the east and this will leave a window of "terrain-induced opportunity" early Saturday. That was flowery but it translates to a light accumulation of snow early Saturday along with some chilly temperatures. Readings this weekend will be a few degrees below zero in the morning and rise into the teens Saturday and 20's Sunday.
Models are having a bit of fun with a system early next week. It will be milder by then and the possibilities are very wide ranging and they do include ice and rain and one end and all snow on the other.
Have fun with the snow and I will try to give a more in depth update on Friday.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Wednesday storm looks stronger, and farther north and this means MRG is ground zero for big time powder !!!
It is yet another twist of fate in the world of weather that draws comparisons to Valentine's day of 2007 but not on as grand of a scale I am sorry to say. Still it is very significant and this storm now appears as if it will be one of the bigger events of the season to date and will turn Wednesday and Thursday into two of the more memorable days on the mountain.
So what is happening ? Our Wednesday storm is just beginning to draw moisture from the juicy Gulf of Mexico as I write and although the upper level support for this storm will be lacking for a while, it will phase with northern stream energy a bit more efficiently verses some of the indications from a few days ago. By the time it reaches the Atlantic coast it evolve into a storm that is slightly better than simply garden variety. Another important development is the track of this storm. Just days ago, a few of the medium range models showed our Wednesday storm to be a total miss for interior New England but the phasing that I mentioned above often means a northward turn and it also means a broader moist conveyor and precipitation shield. The result, to put it as plain as day, Mad River Glen will be one of the best locations for snow from this event and those words go down as easy as one of those fancy expresso drinks on a bitterly cold day.
10-20 inches and some additional details
In terms of timing, the storm will advance through Tennessee late in the day Tuesday and spread precipitation into Vermont between 2 and 7 am Wednesday. Snow will intensify as the morning continues and fall at an occasionally heavy rate into the evening as the storm intensifies as it approaches Boston, making use of the natural baroclincity that the Atlantic Ocean provides. The snow should continue into early Thursday morning before tapering to flurries and snow showers. All told, we can conservatively expect 10-20 inches from this event with fresh powder on Wednesday and Thursday. Weaker disturbances Friday and Saturday bring the possibility of some additional lighter accumulations but take advantage of that mid-week MRG rate if you can because 39 bucks on a powder day at MRG is steal even in this economy.
So what is happening ? Our Wednesday storm is just beginning to draw moisture from the juicy Gulf of Mexico as I write and although the upper level support for this storm will be lacking for a while, it will phase with northern stream energy a bit more efficiently verses some of the indications from a few days ago. By the time it reaches the Atlantic coast it evolve into a storm that is slightly better than simply garden variety. Another important development is the track of this storm. Just days ago, a few of the medium range models showed our Wednesday storm to be a total miss for interior New England but the phasing that I mentioned above often means a northward turn and it also means a broader moist conveyor and precipitation shield. The result, to put it as plain as day, Mad River Glen will be one of the best locations for snow from this event and those words go down as easy as one of those fancy expresso drinks on a bitterly cold day.
10-20 inches and some additional details
In terms of timing, the storm will advance through Tennessee late in the day Tuesday and spread precipitation into Vermont between 2 and 7 am Wednesday. Snow will intensify as the morning continues and fall at an occasionally heavy rate into the evening as the storm intensifies as it approaches Boston, making use of the natural baroclincity that the Atlantic Ocean provides. The snow should continue into early Thursday morning before tapering to flurries and snow showers. All told, we can conservatively expect 10-20 inches from this event with fresh powder on Wednesday and Thursday. Weaker disturbances Friday and Saturday bring the possibility of some additional lighter accumulations but take advantage of that mid-week MRG rate if you can because 39 bucks on a powder day at MRG is steal even in this economy.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
"Active Pattern" appears somewhat less active but new snow should still be expected
We have hit a dry spell in terms of our natural snowfall. We have been in the midst of a chilly regime and this regime has allowed us to avoid the rain and ice for much of the month. According to the observations at the Montpelier-Barre airport, only 0.90 of liquid has fallen if you melt all the snow and sleet. Mad River's elevation has ensured that precipitation amounts have been a bit healthier on the mountain but still well below average. Although we do have some snow to talk about for the upcoming week it will not be enough to dilute the cold and dry personality that January 2009 has now attained.
Along with the cold, we should, with the help of some low level instability and a quickly moving disturbance, pick up a little snow Sunday night into Monday in the form of snow showers and flurries. It will not amount of much and it will precede a very cold and calm night Monday night and a calm and somewhat sunny day Tuesday. The storm we have been watching for a while on the forecast charts will be making its way across the country Tuesday. This is a much weaker storm than I was hoping for, mainly because it lacks the upper level potency necessary to generate any real excitement. It will be close enough to the Gulf to draw in some moisture but it will remain a "positively-tilted-frontrunner" which is another word for garden variety. The other problem is the track which appears to put us somewhat out of this storms main path. We should still get some snow out of this either Tuesday night or Wednesday but the actual amount will depend what part of the 100 mile north-south possibility range the storm takes aim at.
Late this upcoming week and the weekend
This initial storm system Tuesday night and Wednesday will mark the beginning of a brief period when the upper trough is situated in eastern North America as opposed to the west (the prevailing pattern). I was hoping the period might be a bit more fruitful since if you add some incoming Pacific energy into this situation one can cook up an east coast storm rather easily. This in fact may well happen as lingering moisture in the Virginia Tidewater combines with energy from a "Saskatchewan Screamer" around Jan 30 or Jan 31. The problem is, all this cooking looks to be too far east. The SCWB will be watching this one as the week progresses but the chances are a bit on the low side right now and my guess is for a period of snow showers Friday into the the early part of the weekend and a light accumulation. It will continue to be cold but not extreme with morning temperatures a few below zero fahrenheit and within a few degrees of 20 during the afternoon. On Sunday Feb 1, another clipper will be passing through the St Lawrence Valley. This system may mark a temperature moderation to follow and it may bring a few inches of snow although nothing noteworthy.
Mild and dry at the beginning of Feb ??
The biggest upper level feature in the western hemisphere (north of the equator) will eventually be a large block over Greenland which as I mentioned in a previous post will help to counterbalance the western trough and more active Pacific Jet. This block will migrate southwestward somewhat into the Davis straits and creep into interior New England. I remember a pattern like this around the time of the Super Bowl in 2005. It eventually evolved into a good pattern by the middle of February but this block, if it gets too close, can bring a round of mild temperatures to the region. Since we are talking about a block however, the risk of rain and ice remains relatively low however and its merely just mild and dry. Weather systems in such a pattern are often forced well under the block and become cut-off somewhere along the eastern seaboard. If these storms move far enough north it can mean snow for the mountains but I think this would be wishful thinking right now. The Feb 1-Feb 8 period may be safe from a big rain thanks to the block and negative NAO but my guess is that it turns out mainly dry with some above freezing days and below freezing nights (sounds a bit like March but we will see)
Along with the cold, we should, with the help of some low level instability and a quickly moving disturbance, pick up a little snow Sunday night into Monday in the form of snow showers and flurries. It will not amount of much and it will precede a very cold and calm night Monday night and a calm and somewhat sunny day Tuesday. The storm we have been watching for a while on the forecast charts will be making its way across the country Tuesday. This is a much weaker storm than I was hoping for, mainly because it lacks the upper level potency necessary to generate any real excitement. It will be close enough to the Gulf to draw in some moisture but it will remain a "positively-tilted-frontrunner" which is another word for garden variety. The other problem is the track which appears to put us somewhat out of this storms main path. We should still get some snow out of this either Tuesday night or Wednesday but the actual amount will depend what part of the 100 mile north-south possibility range the storm takes aim at.
Late this upcoming week and the weekend
This initial storm system Tuesday night and Wednesday will mark the beginning of a brief period when the upper trough is situated in eastern North America as opposed to the west (the prevailing pattern). I was hoping the period might be a bit more fruitful since if you add some incoming Pacific energy into this situation one can cook up an east coast storm rather easily. This in fact may well happen as lingering moisture in the Virginia Tidewater combines with energy from a "Saskatchewan Screamer" around Jan 30 or Jan 31. The problem is, all this cooking looks to be too far east. The SCWB will be watching this one as the week progresses but the chances are a bit on the low side right now and my guess is for a period of snow showers Friday into the the early part of the weekend and a light accumulation. It will continue to be cold but not extreme with morning temperatures a few below zero fahrenheit and within a few degrees of 20 during the afternoon. On Sunday Feb 1, another clipper will be passing through the St Lawrence Valley. This system may mark a temperature moderation to follow and it may bring a few inches of snow although nothing noteworthy.
Mild and dry at the beginning of Feb ??
The biggest upper level feature in the western hemisphere (north of the equator) will eventually be a large block over Greenland which as I mentioned in a previous post will help to counterbalance the western trough and more active Pacific Jet. This block will migrate southwestward somewhat into the Davis straits and creep into interior New England. I remember a pattern like this around the time of the Super Bowl in 2005. It eventually evolved into a good pattern by the middle of February but this block, if it gets too close, can bring a round of mild temperatures to the region. Since we are talking about a block however, the risk of rain and ice remains relatively low however and its merely just mild and dry. Weather systems in such a pattern are often forced well under the block and become cut-off somewhere along the eastern seaboard. If these storms move far enough north it can mean snow for the mountains but I think this would be wishful thinking right now. The Feb 1-Feb 8 period may be safe from a big rain thanks to the block and negative NAO but my guess is that it turns out mainly dry with some above freezing days and below freezing nights (sounds a bit like March but we will see)
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