It is yet another twist of fate in the world of weather that draws comparisons to Valentine's day of 2007 but not on as grand of a scale I am sorry to say. Still it is very significant and this storm now appears as if it will be one of the bigger events of the season to date and will turn Wednesday and Thursday into two of the more memorable days on the mountain.
So what is happening ? Our Wednesday storm is just beginning to draw moisture from the juicy Gulf of Mexico as I write and although the upper level support for this storm will be lacking for a while, it will phase with northern stream energy a bit more efficiently verses some of the indications from a few days ago. By the time it reaches the Atlantic coast it evolve into a storm that is slightly better than simply garden variety. Another important development is the track of this storm. Just days ago, a few of the medium range models showed our Wednesday storm to be a total miss for interior New England but the phasing that I mentioned above often means a northward turn and it also means a broader moist conveyor and precipitation shield. The result, to put it as plain as day, Mad River Glen will be one of the best locations for snow from this event and those words go down as easy as one of those fancy expresso drinks on a bitterly cold day.
10-20 inches and some additional details
In terms of timing, the storm will advance through Tennessee late in the day Tuesday and spread precipitation into Vermont between 2 and 7 am Wednesday. Snow will intensify as the morning continues and fall at an occasionally heavy rate into the evening as the storm intensifies as it approaches Boston, making use of the natural baroclincity that the Atlantic Ocean provides. The snow should continue into early Thursday morning before tapering to flurries and snow showers. All told, we can conservatively expect 10-20 inches from this event with fresh powder on Wednesday and Thursday. Weaker disturbances Friday and Saturday bring the possibility of some additional lighter accumulations but take advantage of that mid-week MRG rate if you can because 39 bucks on a powder day at MRG is steal even in this economy.