Sub-zero temps continue to prevail across VT during the overnights, unusual to see so many in consecutive fashion in March. Friday morning should be the last of this and a nearly full day of sunshine should warm temperatures all the way to 35 (a 40 degree rise !). Much of the eastern half of the country will get a needed reprieve from the cold and a chance to thaw some ice and snow. The upper ridge responsible for this spring surge will creep into New England but will be battling it out with a strong polar jet for complete control of the weather in interior locations such as Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Temperatures will approach the freezing mark again on Saturday but remain below freezing Sunday thanks to a reenforcing shot of chill. We could see a dusting to perhaps 2 inches of snow Saturday as a disturbance responsible for this chill brings its very limited moisture to the Green Mountains. Overall though Telefest weekend will free of significant storms. Sunshine should be the sunnier of the two days and relatively comfortable.
The upcoming week is a lot more interesting. A pair of smaller disturbances could bring light accumulations of snow both Sunday and Monday nights, perhaps refreshing the mountain a bit for the Monday and Tuesday ski days. A few inches is possible in both of these instances with the most snow occurring north of I89. Then the real fun begins, or so we hope. It is the magnificent merging of a strong southern branch storm with a dynamic influx of polar energy. The result is an all out proverbial fireworks display on the weather map with a storm exploding in the middle Mississippi Valley and advancing east or northeast. The European model and its ensembles have been all over this system for a couple of days with hints of it on some of the other medium range models and more than a hint on the recent Canadian model. There are multiple timing questions and obvious concern about the track of this storm but I am starting to sense the Euro model locking on to this event and I am inclined to believe it will happen, for someone. My concern is the track of this storm. We have talked a few times about how the personality of this winter has been characterized by overwhelming polar jet energy and storm systems that prefer to dump their goodies south of here. This could happen again and there have already been hints of it. Yesterday afternoon's run of the Euro, and the most recent run of the Euro and Canadian are suggesting a hit for Vermont so without getting too optimistic, lets just say we could have worse news. This storm would be the strongest of the year were it to happen, massive amounts of snow and potentially blizzard like conditions around the time frame of late Wednesday into Thursday the 12th and 13th. That's funny, the 21st anniversary of the great Blizzard of 1993 or my "perfect storm".
Cold weather prevails through the following weekend and into St Patrick's Day. After that there are some signs of a tightening jet in the Pacific, perhaps enough to produce some milder temperatures although ensembles have yet to suggest it and have yet to indicate any big thaw through the Spring equinox. I would imagine there is at least another significant weather system in there and maybe two if the stronger Pacific Jet begins to rapid-fire at North America
Thursday, March 6, 2014
Monday, March 3, 2014
Happy Town Meeting Day !! Winter isn't done in case you haven't noticed
If your not keeping tabs on the lengthier amount of daylight you would have totally mistaken Monday and Tuesday for January. And it is a far cry from 2012 which only once the entire winter had a day colder than March 3 which saw temps generally in the single numbers all day. Speaking in terms of intensity and duration, this is a very impressive late season outbreak of arctic cold and it may not be the last. As we progress through the next two weeks, there will be a few days here and there where temperatures will eclipse the freezing mark, but there will also be more multi day stretches of below normal temperatures and a very limited amount of time to melt snow, at least across the high-country. In other words, winter has no plans to make a quick exit. This will be a very, very gradual arrival of spring.
We expect a weak zone of overrunning moisture, enhanced by a surface wave to establish itself over interior New England Wednesday and this should bring more clouds and some light snow back to the region. We could see an inch or two Wednesday and Wednesday night but the general impact from this innocent looking feature is to keep Tuesday night and Wednesday night a bit warmer thanks to clouds and prevent temperatures Wednesday from getting to far from 20. Thursday should feature more in the way of sunshine, light winds and near 30-degree temperatures. Our first true above-freezing afternoon of the month will come Friday as March sunshine boosts readings into the mid-30's. With no wind, the warm afternoon sun will make it feel like Key West, FL by 2 PM.
The 39th annual Telemark fest is coming this weekend and there is all sorts of features on the weather map in the 7-day period beginning Saturday the 8th. Between Saturday and Tuesday the 11th, a weak upper air ridge in the southeast U.S. will battle it out with the arctic cold, the core of which will establish itself over eastern Canada. A series of fast moving weather systems have a chance at bringing some fresh snow to the mountain almost every day during this period. Some will probably miss, some will deliver and none are likely to deliver "a lot". The first chance for a light accumulation of snow comes Saturday as a cold front brings a reenforcing area of below normal temperatures. Another compact system Sunday makes a run at New England and may or may not bring its moisture far enough north for some additional snow. On Monday and Tuesday, one or two fast moving disturbances marking another advance of arctic air are likely to deliver at least some snow but specifics remain a little cloudy. A lot to digest there but it's the end result of being in the nexus of airmasses with the fastest jet stream current directly overhead.
There is another chapter in the story since the European Model, along with both the European and Canadian Ensembles all develop a much more significant storm system during the middle of next week. This is a tricky one; since if the personality of the winter to date is any indication, the polar jet in eastern Canada next week will overwhelm the pattern and force the entire storm track southward and thus keeping MRG and surroundings cold and dry from the 12th-14th. There are hints of this already but we have a ways to go yet. Beyond the 14th, the pattern seems content with serving up at least some cold weather, at least enough to prevent much in the way of melting, through St Patrick's Day.
We expect a weak zone of overrunning moisture, enhanced by a surface wave to establish itself over interior New England Wednesday and this should bring more clouds and some light snow back to the region. We could see an inch or two Wednesday and Wednesday night but the general impact from this innocent looking feature is to keep Tuesday night and Wednesday night a bit warmer thanks to clouds and prevent temperatures Wednesday from getting to far from 20. Thursday should feature more in the way of sunshine, light winds and near 30-degree temperatures. Our first true above-freezing afternoon of the month will come Friday as March sunshine boosts readings into the mid-30's. With no wind, the warm afternoon sun will make it feel like Key West, FL by 2 PM.
The 39th annual Telemark fest is coming this weekend and there is all sorts of features on the weather map in the 7-day period beginning Saturday the 8th. Between Saturday and Tuesday the 11th, a weak upper air ridge in the southeast U.S. will battle it out with the arctic cold, the core of which will establish itself over eastern Canada. A series of fast moving weather systems have a chance at bringing some fresh snow to the mountain almost every day during this period. Some will probably miss, some will deliver and none are likely to deliver "a lot". The first chance for a light accumulation of snow comes Saturday as a cold front brings a reenforcing area of below normal temperatures. Another compact system Sunday makes a run at New England and may or may not bring its moisture far enough north for some additional snow. On Monday and Tuesday, one or two fast moving disturbances marking another advance of arctic air are likely to deliver at least some snow but specifics remain a little cloudy. A lot to digest there but it's the end result of being in the nexus of airmasses with the fastest jet stream current directly overhead.
There is another chapter in the story since the European Model, along with both the European and Canadian Ensembles all develop a much more significant storm system during the middle of next week. This is a tricky one; since if the personality of the winter to date is any indication, the polar jet in eastern Canada next week will overwhelm the pattern and force the entire storm track southward and thus keeping MRG and surroundings cold and dry from the 12th-14th. There are hints of this already but we have a ways to go yet. Beyond the 14th, the pattern seems content with serving up at least some cold weather, at least enough to prevent much in the way of melting, through St Patrick's Day.
Friday, February 28, 2014
Another potential VT storm bites the dust as very cold, and mostly dry weather expected to prevail through March 5th
Absoutely, positively, no love from the models late yesterday or today. This after a Thursday where we underperformed on snow squalls, struggling to receive an inch at MRG while low lying valley locations such as Albany seemed to fair better. Needless to say, this put a double sour taste in my mouth this morning and thus the update today is somewhat of a microcosm of the season. Amazing how many things in life work that way. Remember how the Red Sox epic choke of 2011 culminated. They proceeded to blow a late inning lead while Tampa Bay rallied to win and reshape the playoff picture on the last day of the season. It was as if the whole thing was scripted (you almost knew what would happen before it happened !). The weather picture for the upcoming weekend reminds me of that. No, it hasn't been a terrible season, as a whole it still could end up being better than the last two. But states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and most of southern New England are at 200-400 percent of normal snowfall. Much of Vermont is still below normal and in spite of brutal and persistent cold over the last month, the Mt Mansfield snow stake remains below average. It seems totally devoid of fortune, a wordy phrase for "unlucky".
We are fairly accustomed to the cold weather so the mid 20's Saturday afternoon and little wind will almost feel tropical. The day as a whole is still way below average and comes on the heels of an incredibly anomalous Friday where temperatures were nearly 20 below average on the mountain. Clouds will be on the increase later Saturday and some snow Saturday night could total 2-4 inches by Sunday morning. There is so much precipitation across the country this weekend and early next week, but the 2-4 inches is the grand total for the mountain through the middle of next week. This is a pathetic outcome to be perfectly blunt; but like I said, very consistent with the behavior of the whole winter. When we've been locked into cold thanks to these very powerful PV events, storms become overwhelmed by the polar jet and often suppressed southward. As it stands late Friday, even southern New England is in danger of missing the best of the Sunday/Monday storm which promises to bring more heavy snow to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and northern Virginia. Meanwhile, arctic cold will reestablish its grip on the mountain Sunday and keep daytime temperatures in the teens once again. Interior New England will actually be ground zero for the next major outbreak of cold which will be caused by a powerful arctic surface high pressure center which will gradually build over the state early this upcoming week. Temperatures Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be in the -10 to -20 degree range and since this is early March, these readings will be perilously close to the lowest in "recorded" history. I have always hated the term "record low" or "record high" since "recorded" history and real history only differs by only about 4.54 billion years. In other words, I am sure these things have happened before !
The strong arctic high will actually remain in control of the weather through the end of the week but will lose its ferocity by Thursday afternoon. There have been hints of some overrunning snow late in the week, a plausible outcome in any warm advection scenario. As mentioned, there is a stronger southern branch storm that should evolve into a full fledged coastal storm for the southeast U.S. coastline. Unfortunately, this storm is entirely disconnected from the jet during this time frame and will receive no additional support from the receding polar jet. The storm is thus expected to drift out to sea causing little snow for anyone.
The weekend of the 8th and 9th looks as if it could finish interestingly with another and briefer pattern amplification expected. Temperatures during the weekend could, for at least part of the time, climb above freezing but not by much. As this is happening a storm may or may not gather strength in the nations mid-section and move toward the east coast. Yes, there have been some hints at something big along the U.S. northeast coast line Sunday March 9th into Monday March 10th but I am not feeling optimistic today. General pessimism and low expectations could prove to be our best weapon against future disappointment. Quite honestly that is a lousy attitude but I am going for a the "kiss of death" in reverse.
We are fairly accustomed to the cold weather so the mid 20's Saturday afternoon and little wind will almost feel tropical. The day as a whole is still way below average and comes on the heels of an incredibly anomalous Friday where temperatures were nearly 20 below average on the mountain. Clouds will be on the increase later Saturday and some snow Saturday night could total 2-4 inches by Sunday morning. There is so much precipitation across the country this weekend and early next week, but the 2-4 inches is the grand total for the mountain through the middle of next week. This is a pathetic outcome to be perfectly blunt; but like I said, very consistent with the behavior of the whole winter. When we've been locked into cold thanks to these very powerful PV events, storms become overwhelmed by the polar jet and often suppressed southward. As it stands late Friday, even southern New England is in danger of missing the best of the Sunday/Monday storm which promises to bring more heavy snow to Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and northern Virginia. Meanwhile, arctic cold will reestablish its grip on the mountain Sunday and keep daytime temperatures in the teens once again. Interior New England will actually be ground zero for the next major outbreak of cold which will be caused by a powerful arctic surface high pressure center which will gradually build over the state early this upcoming week. Temperatures Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be in the -10 to -20 degree range and since this is early March, these readings will be perilously close to the lowest in "recorded" history. I have always hated the term "record low" or "record high" since "recorded" history and real history only differs by only about 4.54 billion years. In other words, I am sure these things have happened before !
The strong arctic high will actually remain in control of the weather through the end of the week but will lose its ferocity by Thursday afternoon. There have been hints of some overrunning snow late in the week, a plausible outcome in any warm advection scenario. As mentioned, there is a stronger southern branch storm that should evolve into a full fledged coastal storm for the southeast U.S. coastline. Unfortunately, this storm is entirely disconnected from the jet during this time frame and will receive no additional support from the receding polar jet. The storm is thus expected to drift out to sea causing little snow for anyone.
The weekend of the 8th and 9th looks as if it could finish interestingly with another and briefer pattern amplification expected. Temperatures during the weekend could, for at least part of the time, climb above freezing but not by much. As this is happening a storm may or may not gather strength in the nations mid-section and move toward the east coast. Yes, there have been some hints at something big along the U.S. northeast coast line Sunday March 9th into Monday March 10th but I am not feeling optimistic today. General pessimism and low expectations could prove to be our best weapon against future disappointment. Quite honestly that is a lousy attitude but I am going for a the "kiss of death" in reverse.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Cold ? Yes. Snow ? Yes. Deep snow ? Maybe
The "Mad River Glen" homepage suggests I am calling for 3-7 inches of snow Wednesday. Such a forecast should earn me a citation for "wishcasting", a term coined by the nerdiest faction of the Meteorology community and reserved for those that forecast what they want to happen as opposed to what is likely to happen. I did actually predict 3-7 inches of snow in the last update Sunday evening, but it was over a two day period beginning Wednesday ending Thursday. The snow comes from two separate clipper systems and most of that should fall late Thursday from the latter. Wednesday's clipper appears almost completely devoid of moisture but the mountain could get an inch, maybe two at the summit from what could be a brief burst of snow during the morning. Thursday's clipper isn't particularly rich on moisture either, but this is a much more dynamic system. Some early sunshine and sub-zero temps will give way to clouds and eventually some snow showers. There is a fairly decent layer of instability associated with this clipper so some snow squalls are likely. The high country should do the best with upwards of 5 inches north of Stowe and 2-4 inches at MRG. I am very impressed with the cold weather, not only over the next few days but over the next 7-10 days. It's one thing to have temperatures in the single numbers during the day during January but quite another to see 36-48 hours of sub-10 degree readings in late February or early March (where high temperatures even on the mountain actually get close to freezing). It looks like we could see multiple such stretches and very few opportunities through March 10 for any melt.
Beyond Thursday there is about a 3-day battle between the bitterly cold arctic air brought on by the most recent PV attack and a temporary upper ridge that will establish itself near the southeast U.S. coastline. There will be strong temperature boundary or front that will stretch from the southern plains to the Atlantic Coast, waffling up and down the coast in fact around passing low pressure centers of varying intensities. The waves of low pressure, and there will be at least two, should bring the chance for several periods of snow. The big question involves what area sees the best snow and how much falls. Light snow from this setup should begin Saturday and continue into at least part of the day Sunday before arctic cold reestablishes a firmer grip on interior New England. What should be the last wave in this series is the potential storm we have been discussing for almost a week. This storm has the most potential as far as snowfall totals go but the track remains uncertain. It looked up until this morning that we were establishing some consensus for a decent hit Monday 3/3 into early Tuesday 3/4 but the midday cycle of models Tuesday took everything farther south and showed something less than a decent hit. There is a lot on the proverbial playing field, but in the end we should see at least a few inches of snow this weekend into early next week and hopefully quite a bit more.
The end of next week appears drier but lingering energy in the southern branch will try and brew up a coastal storm. This is long shot but at least its another shot. Cold weather remains in a big way with high temperatures in the teens or twenties and maybe even lower for a day incredibly. Around the time of March 9th or 10th, we could see some more snow from at least a semi-organized system.
Beyond Thursday there is about a 3-day battle between the bitterly cold arctic air brought on by the most recent PV attack and a temporary upper ridge that will establish itself near the southeast U.S. coastline. There will be strong temperature boundary or front that will stretch from the southern plains to the Atlantic Coast, waffling up and down the coast in fact around passing low pressure centers of varying intensities. The waves of low pressure, and there will be at least two, should bring the chance for several periods of snow. The big question involves what area sees the best snow and how much falls. Light snow from this setup should begin Saturday and continue into at least part of the day Sunday before arctic cold reestablishes a firmer grip on interior New England. What should be the last wave in this series is the potential storm we have been discussing for almost a week. This storm has the most potential as far as snowfall totals go but the track remains uncertain. It looked up until this morning that we were establishing some consensus for a decent hit Monday 3/3 into early Tuesday 3/4 but the midday cycle of models Tuesday took everything farther south and showed something less than a decent hit. There is a lot on the proverbial playing field, but in the end we should see at least a few inches of snow this weekend into early next week and hopefully quite a bit more.
The end of next week appears drier but lingering energy in the southern branch will try and brew up a coastal storm. This is long shot but at least its another shot. Cold weather remains in a big way with high temperatures in the teens or twenties and maybe even lower for a day incredibly. Around the time of March 9th or 10th, we could see some more snow from at least a semi-organized system.
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Polar Vortex bringing lots of cold over the coming week but it's also hurting our new snow potential
No more melting of our hard-earned snow until we are well into March i am happy to report. We still do need the powder though, as we would after any rain event. Instability remains in the lower troposphere through Monday but we are too dry for significant snow, just flurries and lighter snow showers. Meanwhile, it is portions of southern New England again that are the first to get re-whitened following the thaw.
The big story for the upcoming week in many places is Polar Vortex round ??? I think it is 5, but I might have lost count. I still can't get over how the term has become so ingrained in the American social consciousness, I thought such terms were reserved for special geeky enclaves such as the SCWB. But I digress, we know from our PV experiences that we get cold in these types of instances and we also know that the jet stream gets revved up and can both suppresses and overpower many of our would be storm systems. The southern branch of the jet stream is not entirely dead during the upcoming week but it will have to compete with energy from the PV, a challenging undertaking.
The first real piece of southern branch energy that is worth watching is an impulse that will track over the southern states Tuesday and advance up the Atlantic coast Wednesday. Incoming energy from the southward dropping PV and the relative warmth of the ocean will help fuel this storm, but it will be somewhat tough for this system to make that critical northward turn although it will try. Snow should be able to advance at least into southern New England and a well-timed clipper might help suck some of this moisture northward into interior New England for a period of light and fluffy snow Wednesday. On the heels of this system will come a quick moving clipper system rotating through the PV Thursday. This should keep the snow flying for a 2nd straight day but in both cases the snow is not expected to be too significant, amounting to 3-7 inches over the two days. The Tuesday to Friday stretch will be characterized more by the unusual late February cold as readings will mainly be in the teens during the day and below zero on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings. This is typically the period in the season where any sunshine can boost temperatures close to the freezing mark or beyond, so relative to normal this upcoming period will be very cold.
The pattern still seems on track to produce more active weather thanks to the combination of split flow in the jet stream across western North American and the eastern Pacific along with the receding PV. The first byproduct of this pattern may come over the first weekend in March with the southern branch producing what could be a coastal system. At this point in time, the PV might be too close to allow such a storm to get too much traction before getting guided out over the ocean. Many of these storms in these instances are getting blown away by fast balls when they encounter jet energy associated with these PV's. The storm I had mentioned for the last two updates in the period between March 3-5 will arrive after the PV recedes somewhat and I still think it is this storm that has the best potential to yield results.
No sign of an extended period of warmer temperatures in early March. The pattern will relax somewhat toward the end of the first week in March but ensembles are showing another pattern amplification between the 8th and 10th of the month and this promises to bring more cold and snow potential to the mountain.
The big story for the upcoming week in many places is Polar Vortex round ??? I think it is 5, but I might have lost count. I still can't get over how the term has become so ingrained in the American social consciousness, I thought such terms were reserved for special geeky enclaves such as the SCWB. But I digress, we know from our PV experiences that we get cold in these types of instances and we also know that the jet stream gets revved up and can both suppresses and overpower many of our would be storm systems. The southern branch of the jet stream is not entirely dead during the upcoming week but it will have to compete with energy from the PV, a challenging undertaking.
The first real piece of southern branch energy that is worth watching is an impulse that will track over the southern states Tuesday and advance up the Atlantic coast Wednesday. Incoming energy from the southward dropping PV and the relative warmth of the ocean will help fuel this storm, but it will be somewhat tough for this system to make that critical northward turn although it will try. Snow should be able to advance at least into southern New England and a well-timed clipper might help suck some of this moisture northward into interior New England for a period of light and fluffy snow Wednesday. On the heels of this system will come a quick moving clipper system rotating through the PV Thursday. This should keep the snow flying for a 2nd straight day but in both cases the snow is not expected to be too significant, amounting to 3-7 inches over the two days. The Tuesday to Friday stretch will be characterized more by the unusual late February cold as readings will mainly be in the teens during the day and below zero on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings. This is typically the period in the season where any sunshine can boost temperatures close to the freezing mark or beyond, so relative to normal this upcoming period will be very cold.
The pattern still seems on track to produce more active weather thanks to the combination of split flow in the jet stream across western North American and the eastern Pacific along with the receding PV. The first byproduct of this pattern may come over the first weekend in March with the southern branch producing what could be a coastal system. At this point in time, the PV might be too close to allow such a storm to get too much traction before getting guided out over the ocean. Many of these storms in these instances are getting blown away by fast balls when they encounter jet energy associated with these PV's. The storm I had mentioned for the last two updates in the period between March 3-5 will arrive after the PV recedes somewhat and I still think it is this storm that has the best potential to yield results.
No sign of an extended period of warmer temperatures in early March. The pattern will relax somewhat toward the end of the first week in March but ensembles are showing another pattern amplification between the 8th and 10th of the month and this promises to bring more cold and snow potential to the mountain.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Polar Vortex V poised to bring it next week after some minimal melt Friday and early Saturday
Most of the mountain will only see a brief window of rain on Friday and thus this will not be a particularly intense thaw or nearly as bad as the one we experienced back in mid-January. Precipitation could actually arrive as a serious burst of snow or a snow/sleet mixture before changing to freezing rain just before dawn. Ice accumulations could be significant as some of the heaviest precipitation will be occurring right around 7AM Friday with temperatures still expected to be a touch below freezing. Temperature cross sections suggest the icing will the most severe at the summits with very little opportunity for rain at any point in the day. Sometimes these situations become counter intuitive with the more protected valley locations getting the worst of the icing but in this case, the inversion in the atmosphere is shown to be well above the 4,000 feet. Temperatures in the lower sections of the mountain will creep above freezing Friday afternoon and thus the period of rain. All precipitation will end by Friday evening.
Saturday is expected to be a milder day and dry in the morning. Readings will be sub-freezing in the morning but rise well into the 30's by early afternoon thanks to some early day sunshine. Perhaps this is not a bad thing since it will give the snow an additional chance to soften and the water to soak through and run off. There are a couple of weak jet impulses that could bring snow back to the mountain as mentioned 2 days ago. The first arrives late in the day Saturday with snow showers arriving even as temperatures remain above freezing. The scenario is almost analogous to a summer afternoon thunderstorm since warming temperatures Saturday will turn the lower troposphere unstable and allow the development of some convective snow showers. If we are lucky, we could squeeze out a few inches out of a burst of snow. Flurries and lighter snow showers will continue through Sunday with temperatures remaining generally below freezing.
Polar vortex round 5 begins next week. The center of the deep freeze will actually stay in Canada, mostly over Ontario and Quebec but interior New England will be back in the deep freeze as well with temperatures well below zero during the mornings Wednesday through Friday and only in the teens during the afternoons. There are weak weather features early in the week that could bring light snow to the Green Mountains but none look substantial. The southern branch is not completely dead but it will be suppressed south much of next week and a weak area of low pressure is expected to be one product of that early Monday. This storm and its impacts area expected to remain well south of Vermont and the best we can do is probably another round of snow showers or a brief period of lighter snow/. The next weak weather feature late Tuesday is more of a clipper and may bring a round of light snow to Vermont before bitterly cold temperatures advance into the state Wednesday.
The real active weather begins in March as the PV relaxes and recedes and another round of split flow in the eastern Pacific and western North America emerges. There are signs, even 12 days out, of a major storm in the time frame of March 3-5, the first of what could turn into another very productive period for powder. With much of this thaw mitigated, there is little doubt that we will move into March with a healthy base and additional snows will quickly turn conditions very good.
Saturday is expected to be a milder day and dry in the morning. Readings will be sub-freezing in the morning but rise well into the 30's by early afternoon thanks to some early day sunshine. Perhaps this is not a bad thing since it will give the snow an additional chance to soften and the water to soak through and run off. There are a couple of weak jet impulses that could bring snow back to the mountain as mentioned 2 days ago. The first arrives late in the day Saturday with snow showers arriving even as temperatures remain above freezing. The scenario is almost analogous to a summer afternoon thunderstorm since warming temperatures Saturday will turn the lower troposphere unstable and allow the development of some convective snow showers. If we are lucky, we could squeeze out a few inches out of a burst of snow. Flurries and lighter snow showers will continue through Sunday with temperatures remaining generally below freezing.
Polar vortex round 5 begins next week. The center of the deep freeze will actually stay in Canada, mostly over Ontario and Quebec but interior New England will be back in the deep freeze as well with temperatures well below zero during the mornings Wednesday through Friday and only in the teens during the afternoons. There are weak weather features early in the week that could bring light snow to the Green Mountains but none look substantial. The southern branch is not completely dead but it will be suppressed south much of next week and a weak area of low pressure is expected to be one product of that early Monday. This storm and its impacts area expected to remain well south of Vermont and the best we can do is probably another round of snow showers or a brief period of lighter snow/. The next weak weather feature late Tuesday is more of a clipper and may bring a round of light snow to Vermont before bitterly cold temperatures advance into the state Wednesday.
The real active weather begins in March as the PV relaxes and recedes and another round of split flow in the eastern Pacific and western North America emerges. There are signs, even 12 days out, of a major storm in the time frame of March 3-5, the first of what could turn into another very productive period for powder. With much of this thaw mitigated, there is little doubt that we will move into March with a healthy base and additional snows will quickly turn conditions very good.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Some snow Wednesday but no avoiding the ice/rain Friday
Arctic cold is very slowly giving ground to milder pacific air, but this very gradual process has already resulted in a few inches of snow Tuesday. On Wednesday we will see an encore performance as a clipper system will gain some last minute steam along the southern New England coast. A week ago this looked like a "spring"day, now it's a powder day. Sort've a powder day I suppose, since snow will actually develop Wednesday afternoon and continue into part of the evening. Temperatures will be considerably milder than early in the week, approaching the freezing mark, but the day will feature snow, another 2-4 inches.
Thursday is still expected to be dry and the late February higher angled sunshine will go to work, sending readings above the freezing mark and likely softening the snow on a good part of the mountain. Lack of wind and great visibility will make it one of the more comfortable days this month. Temperatures will have a brief opportunity to duck under the freezing mark Thursday night ahead "odorous" storm system discussed in the previous update. A strengthening upper ridge across the eastern third of the U.S. will unfortunately guide this storm deep into Canada, ultimately stalling out east of the lower Hudson Bay. A surge of warmer temperatures will thus reach Vermont, but before it does, precipitation is expected to develop across the state and at MRG in the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. Temperatures cross sections make it appear that areas of the state, east of the Green Mountain spine, will see a several hour period of freezing rain Friday morning before precipitation goes to plain rain during the day. I think temperatures might creep into the low 40's briefly Friday but this will not be an extended thaw. The rain will end by Friday evening and temperatures will be back in the 20's Saturday morning.
We had discussed a possible storm over the weekend, an event which could have quickly erased the bad feelings of our Friday rain event. Unfortunately, models have taken a decisive turn against such an occurrence. There are a series of weak upper air impulses between Sunday and Monday which could provide some refreshment. Monday the 24th also looks potentially unstable enough for terrain induced snow showers. We can then look forward to another cold week to finish off the month of February, this thanks to a surging PNA index. Models have hinted at a coastal storm during the middle of the week but Vermont snow is being indicated to be the end result of clipper type systems (this could change). Temperatures, as mentioned will be chilly with high's in the teens and 20's most of the week and low temperatures in the single digits or below zero.
There is evidence of another temperature moderation at the very beginning of March, at least a brief one. If this occurs I think it will be short-lived and I believe more split flow in the jet stream will dominate the early part of the month. This means another round of active weather much like we have seen this month.
Thursday is still expected to be dry and the late February higher angled sunshine will go to work, sending readings above the freezing mark and likely softening the snow on a good part of the mountain. Lack of wind and great visibility will make it one of the more comfortable days this month. Temperatures will have a brief opportunity to duck under the freezing mark Thursday night ahead "odorous" storm system discussed in the previous update. A strengthening upper ridge across the eastern third of the U.S. will unfortunately guide this storm deep into Canada, ultimately stalling out east of the lower Hudson Bay. A surge of warmer temperatures will thus reach Vermont, but before it does, precipitation is expected to develop across the state and at MRG in the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. Temperatures cross sections make it appear that areas of the state, east of the Green Mountain spine, will see a several hour period of freezing rain Friday morning before precipitation goes to plain rain during the day. I think temperatures might creep into the low 40's briefly Friday but this will not be an extended thaw. The rain will end by Friday evening and temperatures will be back in the 20's Saturday morning.
We had discussed a possible storm over the weekend, an event which could have quickly erased the bad feelings of our Friday rain event. Unfortunately, models have taken a decisive turn against such an occurrence. There are a series of weak upper air impulses between Sunday and Monday which could provide some refreshment. Monday the 24th also looks potentially unstable enough for terrain induced snow showers. We can then look forward to another cold week to finish off the month of February, this thanks to a surging PNA index. Models have hinted at a coastal storm during the middle of the week but Vermont snow is being indicated to be the end result of clipper type systems (this could change). Temperatures, as mentioned will be chilly with high's in the teens and 20's most of the week and low temperatures in the single digits or below zero.
There is evidence of another temperature moderation at the very beginning of March, at least a brief one. If this occurs I think it will be short-lived and I believe more split flow in the jet stream will dominate the early part of the month. This means another round of active weather much like we have seen this month.
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