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Monday, March 3, 2014

Happy Town Meeting Day !! Winter isn't done in case you haven't noticed

If your not keeping tabs on the lengthier amount of daylight you would have totally mistaken Monday and Tuesday for January. And it is a far cry from 2012 which only once the entire winter had a day colder than March 3 which saw temps generally in the single numbers all day. Speaking in terms of intensity and duration, this is a very impressive late season outbreak of arctic cold and it may not be the last. As we progress through the next two weeks, there will be a few days here and there where temperatures will eclipse the freezing mark, but there will also be more multi day stretches of below normal temperatures and a very limited amount of time to melt snow, at least across the high-country. In other words, winter has no plans to make a quick exit. This will be a very, very gradual arrival of spring.

We expect a weak zone of overrunning moisture, enhanced by a surface wave to establish itself over interior New England Wednesday and this should bring more clouds and some light snow back to the region. We could see an inch or two Wednesday and Wednesday night but the general impact from this innocent looking feature is to keep Tuesday night and Wednesday night a bit warmer thanks to clouds and prevent temperatures Wednesday from getting to far from 20. Thursday should feature more in the way of sunshine, light winds and near 30-degree temperatures. Our first true above-freezing afternoon of the month will come Friday as March sunshine boosts readings into the mid-30's. With no wind, the warm afternoon sun will make it feel like Key West, FL by 2 PM.

The 39th annual Telemark fest is coming this weekend and there is all sorts of features on the weather map in the 7-day period beginning Saturday the 8th. Between Saturday and Tuesday the 11th, a weak upper air ridge in the southeast U.S. will battle it out with the arctic cold, the core of which will establish itself over eastern Canada. A series of fast moving weather systems have a chance at bringing some fresh snow to the mountain almost every day during this period. Some will probably miss, some will deliver and none are likely to deliver "a lot". The first chance for a light accumulation of snow comes Saturday as a cold front brings a reenforcing area of below normal temperatures. Another compact system Sunday makes a run at New England and may or may not bring its moisture far enough north for some additional snow. On Monday and Tuesday, one or two fast moving disturbances marking another advance of arctic air are likely to deliver at least some snow but specifics remain a little cloudy. A lot to digest there but it's the end result of being in the nexus of airmasses with the fastest jet stream current directly overhead.

There is another chapter in the story since the European Model, along with both the European and Canadian Ensembles all develop a much more significant storm system during the middle of next week. This is a tricky one; since if the personality of the winter to date is any indication, the polar jet in eastern Canada next week will overwhelm the pattern and force the entire storm track southward and thus keeping MRG and surroundings cold and dry from the 12th-14th. There are hints of this already but we have a ways to go yet. Beyond the 14th, the pattern seems content with serving up at least some cold weather, at least enough to prevent much in the way of melting, through St Patrick's Day.

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