February finished mild but the outlook for March has turned abruptly colder

 Our February weekend finale could have been rainier, as it was along parts of the southern New England coastline, but the mild air arrived in a big way. It was a classic mixdown situation late Saturday where gusty winds took some of the mild air aloft and brought it right to the surface, destroying any inversion and bringing temperatures up toward the 50-degree mark in some low lying areas. After a very minimal amount of rain early Monday, a typical early March tumultuous ride on the weather train commences. Colder arctic air will push southeast and for a period of time between Monday afternoon and the very early morning hours Tuesday we will be presented with some of the best low level instability of the winter season. We have the right wind direction off a partially unfrozen Lake Champlain as well and it argues for an excellent terrain enhanced snow shower situation late Monday into early Tuesday and some decent powder for the ski day Tuesday. Some of the computer models have responded accordingly but the high resolution data that is typically best at picking up on these scenarios is only producing limited snowfall, essentially showing that some low level dry air is negating the intense instability. Normally I would be fairly excited about this setup but I want to be respectful of the data as opposed to trying convince readers I am smarter than the computer. 2-5 inches is thus my guess for snowfall late Monday into early Tuesday. The potential is there for more but the aforementioned high res data is showing more like 1-3 so I am compromising. 

The roller coaster ride then begins with a very cold day Tuesday with temperatures remaining in the teens followed by a much milder Wednesday with readings eclipsing the freezing mark. There is a clipper system in between the two days that could bring a small accumulation to the MRV and is much more likely to do that north of I89. The outlook thereafter and more generally has trended colder and is making several forecasters look very foolish since many were absolutely convinced it would torch in March. I am not naming names nor am I implying anything disparaging about their weather forecasting abilities but they were very confident it would be warm in March and it does not at all look mild for our first weekend of the month. After temperatures eclipse the freezing mark on Wednesday we are likely to begin a stretch of almost a week with readings staying sub-30 on the mountain. Can we score the elusive big storm or any kind of snow producing system ? This is still a tougher ask right now the pattern looks dry. The southern streamer late Wednesday into Thursday appears out of phase with the polar jet and the trough axis appears too far east when it eventually gets cold late in the week. We can hope for instability induced snow showers, a very common occurrence in the months of March/April during cold setups but the risk of a big storm appears small.

As mentioned, the colder sub-freezing stretch of temperatures is likely to persist through March 9th, making the GFS and it's ensemble members look very foolish. Spring-like temperatures continue to look possible for a short time between March 10th and 12th but the data is not supporting the notion that winter undergoes a major retreat. In fact, it will be the Pacific, a pesky nuisance all season which will undergo some changes beyond the 10th of the month and slow the advance of Spring in the middle to later part of March. We can still expect a few mild days embedded in this setup, but I expect some winter weather action in the 10 days beginning March 13th

Weather providing more of the variety pack to the MRV over the next week to 10 days

March is only a few days away and our weather has moved into that early March position accordingly providing us with a variety of very changeable weather. With that said, happy bluebird Friday ! Please get out and enjoy the winter-like temperatures and sunshine because in this weather pattern, it won't last ! The clouds are back by Saturday and so is the precipitation, beginning as a bit of snow in the midday hours and then changing to a bit of freezing rain or rain later in the day or into the evening. This does not appear to be a particularly robust overrunning set up, beset with low level southerly flow which will scour much of the sub-freezing temperatures out of northern Vermont by the end of Saturday. Precipitation is not expected to be especially robust either however and we can expect 1-2 inches of snow followed by a minimal ice accumulation. Another system will race east out of the Rockies on Sunday, tracking over the U.P. of Michigan before proceeding on a track over southern Canada. I think much of Sunday is simply dry, cloudy and mild and if the sun can break for a few hours (possible), it will turn the last day of February into the warmest since late December with above freezing temperatures (35-40) encompassing a large section of even the high country. Even with the clouds and mostly low visibility, Sunday appears mild enough to soften much of the snowpack at lower elevations and any rainfall is likely to hold off until very late in the ski day or during the evening. 

I think we got part of next week figured out, but continue to have questions relating to a potential storm in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. On Monday, we should sub-freezing temps return to the upper portions of the mountain while mild, slightly above freezing temperatures continue to prevail in low lying areas. Though I would not expect a full return to sunshine, any rain will be long gone and we can expect at least a few glimpses of blue sky to accompany the relatively comfortable early March temperatures. Colder, lingering arctic air in eastern Canada will then plunge southward late Monday evening, powered by a vigorous clipper system which will bring a period of snow showers and squalls to the entire MRV. It only appears to be a brief window for potential heavy snow but a pretty healthy one and certainly capable of providing us skiers with 2-6 inches of powder ahead of a cold ski day on Tuesday. The sun should make a full return later Tuesday but with temperatures hovering in the teens.

As mentioned, we still have some storm potential in the late Wednesday to Thursday time frame. This is an idea that the American GFS model has never seemed to warm up to but both the Canadian and European ensembles continue to hint at. It involves subtropical energy in the jet stream that has an outside chance of phasing with what's left of the polar jet and producing a storm of considerable significance along the east coast. This is not a likely scenario right now but a possible one that's worth a watch. 

In the longer range, we will continue to lose our longstanding high latitude blocking support and all the major ensembles have responded by suggesting a period of stronger above normal temperatures beginning around March 7th (a Sunday) and persisting through at least the 10th or 11th. Although there is more agreement regarding this idea generally, ensembles continue to disagree on when exactly this threat of warmth begins. The American continues to ride the warm train and jumps on early, showing above normal temperatures by the first weekend of March (6th and 7th) while the European is conveying a more winter-like March 6th and 7th before warmer temperatures commence on March 8th. The disagreement likely stems from the existence of that potential storm discussed in the preceding period. In spite of the warm temperatures advertised in the 2nd week of March, there are signs it won't last. Though we will lose the support of the AO/NAO in early March, the strength of the jet in the Pacific is also expected to gradually recede after peaking over the next few days. Though a return to a sustained period of below normal temperatures is unlikely in the middle of the month, I don't agree with the notion that winter is done after March 6th.

Very changeable weather over the next 5 days in Vermont but this forecast continues to include light amounts of snow

 Pacific air now covers much of the eastern half of the country and large sections of the U.S. are very happy to see it. Much of Texas which was freezing under the weight of single digit temperatures a week or so ago are now enjoying 70-degree afternoons and Minnesota will be 50 degrees warmer Tuesday afternoon verses one week ago. In Vermont, last Tuesday was actually pretty mild same as this Tuesday giving me the chance to misappropriate David Byrne's famous line "same as it ever was" while also pointing out that interior New England often follows its own weather road, independent of the rest of the North America. We can expect some light snow Tuesday afternoon and evening and a light accumulation of maybe an inch or two. Wednesday will almost feel spring-like, with temperatures approaching 40 in the valley and  it would be even warmer were it not for the arrival of clouds in the afternoon. 

Those clouds mentioned above mark the approach of the surge of lingering arctic air in Canada that has been discussed a few times here. Elevation sensitive rain/snow showers will become snow showers and snow squalls on the mountain Wednesday evening and as winds become more northwesterly during the overnight hours, those snow showers will lead to some accumulation at Mad River Glen. Those snow showers will gradually abate Thursday morning but not before a 2-5 inch snowfall. Winds Thursday will remain gusty but the sunshine should make an appearance during the afternoon with temperatures hovering in the high teens before falling well into the single digits Thursday night. I think Friday is bluebird material and with lighter winds and near 20-degree temperatures. I always consider those type of days to be underappreciated since we really just don't see too many of them in the northeast. It's either cloudy, precipitating, windy or a combination of two or three. Rarely is it simply sunny, calm and cold. Certainly something that the Colorado folks have on us, climatologically speaking.

Friday's weather will not persist into the upcoming weekend. A push of milder air will bring clouds back to Vermont Saturday and some snow or mixed precipitation late in the day or during the evening. Some of the major forecast models are not particularly bullish on accumulating snow but it remains possible being the the process of displacing arctic cold typically begets snow. Sunday appears a bit drier with clouds, a few peaks of sunshine and mild in the valley areas with readings up near the 40-degree mark while temperatures hover around freezing on the mountain. 

The outlook for the first 4-5 days of March which amounts to the Monday-Friday period of next week looks like a typical early March setup. Models simply are illustrating no agreement on specifics. The GFS shows a surge of much below normal temperatures early in the week accompanied by snow showers while the Euro has temperatures closer to normal while showing a potential snow producing system for interior New England later in the week. I am actually quite open to either possibility and never felt comfortable with the notion that we would get a significant torch next week. 

Beyond March 5, there are more hints of a more significant round of spring-like weather but even in this time frame, not all of the ensemble packages of reached an agreement as to how warm it might get.

Mildest week in some time still expected to feature several small snow accumulations

 Though the big storm has been elusive both this past week and through the winter as a whole in northern Vermont, we've found ways to get snowfall other ways. The snow shower machine came through both Friday and Saturday night and when combined with the cold temperatures, really made for a nice weekend of skiing. Meanwhile the pattern is really undergoing some changes. Earlier this month we saw the high latitude blocking associated with the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event score a big victory over the competing strength of the Pacific Jet. Contrary to a season ago, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been persistently negative but for the first time since late November has worked its way into positive territory. Meanwhile the Pacific is a raging torrent right now and will briefly evolve into a full scale evil empire before retreating westward toward the date line. Even with all that however, Vermont will escape without a massive torch. I think the lower part of the mountain will procure a couple of above-freezing afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday but there is new snow dotting the forecast in spite of this and some lingering arctic air in eastern Canada will spill southward late in the week, giving us a wintry finish to a very wintry month. 

The mild Pacific air is on an eastward march stemming from the changes discussed above. Fortunately, its approach will be the catalyst for a decent period of snow during the midday and afternoon hours Monday and with temperatures remaining in the 20's, the snow should stay powdery. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be milder as mentioned but in the case of Tuesday, there's enough instability for elevation sensitive snow showers, especially during the afternoon. It will start to feel like late March down in the valley with some snow melt and temperatures up near 40, but up on the mountain, the occasional snow will keep readings near the freezing mark. Some early sun Wednesday could make for an even milder day but that late week arctic push will begin its approach late in the day, accompanied by a rapidly moving clipper system. We could receive more snow from this clipper system Wednesday night followed by snow showers into early Thursday before clearing skies and colder temperatures prevail late in the day, Thursday night and into Friday. There's quite a bit to digest here, much of it caused by small weather features but in summary we have the following in terms of snowfall accumulation. 

2-4 inches of powder Monday afternoon

1-3 inches of gloppier snow Tuesday afternoon

1-3 inches of wet snow from clipper Wednesday night

1-3 inches of Champlain powder very early Thursday 

The late week cold should persist through Friday, a sunny day and into the early part of the last weekend of February which could feature another bit of snowfall as milder air makes another northeastward push, creating a nice overrunning surface for us. With the AO positive and the Pacific doing its thing, there is quite a bit of talk about a torchy March. At face value, ensembles are showing slightly above average temperatures for the first week of the month but nothing excessive and as bad as the EPO is in the near term, it is expected to peak late this week and subside a bit thereafter. So while I certainly wouldn't want to convey that the outlook is cold during the first 10 days of month, I think normal or slightly above is a much better guess than much above. 

Intermittent light snow Thursday night and Friday followed by snow showers Friday night adds up to about 4-6 inches

 Though we did manage to avoid a damaging thaw this week, it was certainly mildly disappointing that a week loaded with snowfall potential may end up featuring less than a foot. Worse is the overall realization that one of the best overall east coast snowstorm setups in several years, failed to deliver the big storm to northern Vermont. It's still probably the best February of skiing in several years but we've also had some bad ones since 2017. 

Our east coast snow event has been a story of a storm that once threatened to track close to Lake Huron and is now only producing a narrow corridor of snowfall in areas of the northeast close to the coast. Models had a difficult time with this one, especially the American GFS model, but when a polar jet is involved, small errors in the short term become large areas a few days out and even bigger ones 5-7 days out. We are still likely to see some snowfall beginning within a few hours of midnight Friday and persisting intermittently through the day. Unfortunately, I don't think the snow will ever reach an intensity capable of producing a heavy accumulation and we are thus likely to see only 2-3 inches of fluffy powder. We have a decent snow shower set up for a few hours with some instability combined with favorable wind direction Friday night. I would be more optimistic except in this case, but when a storm is consolidating offshore it can act to steal moisture from us inland locales. Forecast data is still suggesting that a few inches are possible Friday night in northern Vermont and the high country is best positioned for the highest amounts. Lighter snow showers are likely to continue into Saturday, an excellent ski day with some new snow and cold temperatures (near 20) and gusty northwest winds.  I also expect a bit of sunshine late Saturday and a bit more early Sunday before clouds arrive in advance of the next weather system. Sunday will be dry, less windy with a cold start (single digits) and a tolerable afternoon of 25-30 degree temps. 

We continue to have a possible snowfall lined up for Monday the 22nd. This is a fast moving Pacific impulse and its eastward advance marks the arrival of milder Pacific air and the retreat of Arctic air and the polar jet more generally. The storm system appears to be moving too quickly to evolve into a big east coast snow producer but the potential for a few inches is certainly there. There are parts of the rest of next week that are showing up a bit milder today but not excessively so. The midday cycle of models on Feb 18 also indicated that arctic air will linger in southeast Canada through next week and perhaps might make a push southward ahead or during the advance of an approaching storm system in the Thursday/Friday(25/26th) time frame. This combination at least brings the possibility of some new snow late next week but we will have to wait and see how this situation evolves. 

Fundamentally speaking, the pattern does not look especially cold in early March. The +EPO appears to be back in the drivers seat and it opens the door for a few spring-like days in the first week of the month. 

No ice or rain late Thursday into Friday, just a powdery light snow and some additional snow showers Friday night

 Texas continues to be stuck in the deep freeze and residents are being forced to deal with rolling blackouts for another day. In the meantime its just another typical week of winter weather in Vermont with precipitation coming in multiple forms and big swings in temperature. The lowest thousand feet of MRG inched above freezing on Tuesday but the upper mountain appeared to remain below freezing even as mixed precipitation was falling during the morning. Snow showers accompanied the incoming remnants of the "Texas Special", the now modified arctic airmass that brought sub-zero temps to the Dallas/Ft Worth metro. 

Thursday's weather situation has evolved very quickly. Medium range models had us living in fear of a dreadful Great Lakes cutter just a few days ago and now the storm and much of it's associated moisture are south and east; in fact, too far south and east for a heavy snow in Vermont. The cold air certainly isn't the issue, we will get our dose of the "Texas Special with temperatures in the teens on Wednesday and even below zero Thursday morning. We do need the moisture however and the latest rounds of model data are showing much of the precipitation with the coastal system closer to the coastline. That said, the decaying area of snowfall associated with the initial storm will still get us in the form of that inverted trough structure. So an epic storm is looking less likely but ice or freezing rain is looking very unlikely. Even if the storm is a measly 2-5 incher, it's better than ice and rain.  In the current scenario, the snow would be slower to develop, arriving sometime late Thursday night and persist through a good part of Friday. The snow would be intermittent and not especially intense but certainly powdery. The snow shower situation also looks quite favorable for several hours Friday night, potentially adding 2-4 inches ahead of the ski day Saturday. 

Both weekend ski days look blustery and chilly with temperatures near 20 during the day and teens and single numbers at night. Flurries and snow showers are likely to continue into part of Saturday while Sunday appears drier. 

The Pacific jet is poised to regain control of the North American weather pattern forcing arctic air to retreat and and allowing much milder air to return to southern latitudes including Texas next week. Before that happens in New England however, we might be able to cook something up around the time frame of Monday. Not every model is showing it, at this point it's mostly the European and its ensemble members but often times, the caboose in an arctic pattern or the last storm before the cold retreats can be a big snow producer. Even after this hypothetical storm departs and spring-like conditions emerge in many of the same areas stricken by the recent deep freeze, Vermont should be able to stay wintry through the rest of next week. As we enter March, there are signs that milder air could make a more substantial intrusion to the MRV but next week continues to look wintry. 

Two storms will challenge northern Vermont with pushes of milder air but precipitation looks more like snow/sleet and less like ice/cold rain

The weather made a few headlines this past weekend as a historic cold wave descended on the state of Texas.   As of late Sunday, every county in the Lone Star State was under a winter storm warning and there were apocalyptic wintry scenes from around Dallas which experienced blowing snow with temperatures in the teens. Now we've had some snow this year in and around the MRV and we are about to get more this week, but much of Texas has us beat for wintry weather this past weekend so congrats to them on that. 

This weather pattern overall is quite extraordinary because of the intense cold in the central U.S. but it does bear a resemblance to a pattern I might expect during a significant La Nina winter (certainly a more extreme version of it). Arctic air battling it out with a stubborn and resilient ridge in the jet stream across the southeast and don't forget about all the storminess that has impacted the Pacific Northwest. That storminess is taking quite the scenic route across North America right now entering via the Puget Sound, heading southeast all the way to the Rio Grande Valley and then making a hard left turn toward the Ohio Valley. Two storms will do that this week and the tracks of both significant storms will bring with them a big push of milder temperatures. I think we can keep the sub-freezing temperature streak alive and keep the ice and rain away but we will certainly be challenged and twice ! 

Storm #1 is the one responsible for all of the snow in Texas and it will race northeast Monday toward eastern Tennessee and ultimately position itself close to the New Hampshire seacoast by midday Tuesday. This is a pretty good track honestly but we are working with a bare minimum amount of cold air. Most of it is to our west and not to our north. It should be enough however to allow for some light snow to develop during the afternoon Monday followed by some steadier snow during the overnight hours. Now as of late Sunday, we didn't have any more room to spare in terms of keeping this storm all snow. In other words, northward shift is now bad and even another 10 miles might be bad and with the overnight round of forecast data arriving as I write this, it looks like enough warm air might infiltrate a small layer of the atmosphere to change precipitation to sleet Tuesday morning. We can handle sleet but we need to keep the ice away and I think that will be a problem in southern Vermont, Mass and portions of interior CT. As far as accumulations go, the introduction of sleet to the forecast suggests lower amounts overall in the range of 5-10 inches. 

We get the remnants of the the midwest cold wave for 2 days Wednesday and Thursday. It will arrive abruptly shortly after Sunset Tuesday and should be accompanied by some snow showers for a few hours. The snow will be mostly gone by Wednesday morning but temperatures will be back around zero degrees and we should see a period of sunshine, a rare glimpse in a very active week. 

The news for the event late Thursday into Friday is encouraging right now. Another big amplifying storm in this pattern is certainly capable of cutting right to the eastern Great Lakes. The Thursday system will attempt to do that but the last few rounds of model data are indicating a much healthier cold air damming signature along the east coast stemming from the aforementioned airmass arriving Tuesday night. There is continued uncertainty regarding the exact track of this stronger looking storm late Thursday but I expect a front end dump of snow regardless of the track and then we have to root hard to keep the ice and rain away. Data today suggests that we have a very good chance of doing just that but a period of sleet continues to look likely. The eventual track of this system is critical and the ability for this storm to make an efficient transfer to the coast will determine whether or not we can avoid all the adverse stuff. The cold air damming signature was very encouraging today but we aren't quite to the finish line yet. In terms of timing with this storm, snow would begin late in the day Thursday and the best chance for sleet would be in the hours around midnight Friday. 

Colder weather and snow showers will ring in the weekend and are likely to continue through part of Saturday. Temperatures will below normal but remain in the more garden variety category rising into the 20's during the day and dropping into the teens and single digits overnight. The pattern certainly looks to be more Pacific and less Arctic for the last week of February but Vermont continues to look well positioned to escape any thaw and should be able to procure a bit more snow between Feb 22-25.