Mildest week in some time still expected to feature several small snow accumulations

 Though the big storm has been elusive both this past week and through the winter as a whole in northern Vermont, we've found ways to get snowfall other ways. The snow shower machine came through both Friday and Saturday night and when combined with the cold temperatures, really made for a nice weekend of skiing. Meanwhile the pattern is really undergoing some changes. Earlier this month we saw the high latitude blocking associated with the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event score a big victory over the competing strength of the Pacific Jet. Contrary to a season ago, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been persistently negative but for the first time since late November has worked its way into positive territory. Meanwhile the Pacific is a raging torrent right now and will briefly evolve into a full scale evil empire before retreating westward toward the date line. Even with all that however, Vermont will escape without a massive torch. I think the lower part of the mountain will procure a couple of above-freezing afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday but there is new snow dotting the forecast in spite of this and some lingering arctic air in eastern Canada will spill southward late in the week, giving us a wintry finish to a very wintry month. 

The mild Pacific air is on an eastward march stemming from the changes discussed above. Fortunately, its approach will be the catalyst for a decent period of snow during the midday and afternoon hours Monday and with temperatures remaining in the 20's, the snow should stay powdery. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be milder as mentioned but in the case of Tuesday, there's enough instability for elevation sensitive snow showers, especially during the afternoon. It will start to feel like late March down in the valley with some snow melt and temperatures up near 40, but up on the mountain, the occasional snow will keep readings near the freezing mark. Some early sun Wednesday could make for an even milder day but that late week arctic push will begin its approach late in the day, accompanied by a rapidly moving clipper system. We could receive more snow from this clipper system Wednesday night followed by snow showers into early Thursday before clearing skies and colder temperatures prevail late in the day, Thursday night and into Friday. There's quite a bit to digest here, much of it caused by small weather features but in summary we have the following in terms of snowfall accumulation. 

2-4 inches of powder Monday afternoon

1-3 inches of gloppier snow Tuesday afternoon

1-3 inches of wet snow from clipper Wednesday night

1-3 inches of Champlain powder very early Thursday 

The late week cold should persist through Friday, a sunny day and into the early part of the last weekend of February which could feature another bit of snowfall as milder air makes another northeastward push, creating a nice overrunning surface for us. With the AO positive and the Pacific doing its thing, there is quite a bit of talk about a torchy March. At face value, ensembles are showing slightly above average temperatures for the first week of the month but nothing excessive and as bad as the EPO is in the near term, it is expected to peak late this week and subside a bit thereafter. So while I certainly wouldn't want to convey that the outlook is cold during the first 10 days of month, I think normal or slightly above is a much better guess than much above.