Dry weather, a short-lived blast of bitterly cold air and some light snowfall chances until pattern takes an ugly turn on February 8

Following 4 inches of fluffy snow, sunshine emerged in a big and beautiful way Tuesday afternoon. January has not been an easy month for winter weather and snow in northern New England, but we managed a decent finish and Tuesday was a terrific way to end it. The clear skies Tuesday night and fresh snow cover will allow temperatures to drop below zero, something we didn't do at all in January amazingly but most of us will break that streak on the first day of February. Depending on where you are (west or east), Tuesday or Wednesday all marks the first 5:00 pm sunset of the year. I had thought there was a chance it might be the last sub 5:00 pm sunset ever, though it appears the elimination of EST got caught in a legislative snarl and put on hold for the time being. Personally, I am a bit ambivalent on the whole thing. Though I don't particularly enjoy when it gets dark so early, the early winter sunsets have become rather engrained in New England tradition and it makes the brighter days of February and March something to look forward to. I might add that no matter how much we fail to act regarding climate priorities, climate change will never impact early winter sunsets ! 

The drier weather that begin during the second half of Tuesday will continue through a roller coaster temperature regime over the next few days. We can expect some sunshine to return for Wednesday with temperatures climbing to about 20 followed by more clouds and more wind for Thursday along with temperatures that climb to 30. A massive arctic front will be approaching Thursday evening and a clipper system associated with this surge in frigid temperatures is expected to bring a period of snow to northern Vermont Thursday night. This however, is a brutally cold but very stable frontal assault of arctic air and I am expecting sunshine to return for Friday to go along with strong winds and dangerous wind chills. The National Weather Service in Burlington posted a wind chill forecast applicable for early Saturday but I think this map would be valid most of Friday evening into early Saturday. 

Actual temperatures will start Friday below zero and stay below zero all day, perhaps as low as -10 to -20 at the summits. By Friday morning, readings everywhere will be close to -20 so although this will most assuredly not be a cold winter, this is quite assuredly a very cold outbreak of air for northern New England. Temperatures are expected to recover some during the day Saturday with the help of an almost full day of sunshine. Readings might make it above zero at the base as winds gradually abate. Clouds are expected to return on Sunday and winds should be gusty out of the southwest allowing readings to climb from near zero F, all the way back toward the freezing mark. A clipper system, again, well to our north, is responsible for the clouds, but the limited moisture might be too limited to support any snowfall. We have a better chance for some new snow on Monday as arctic air tries to give us a short encore performance opening up an opportunity for terrain enhanced snowfall even though a storm for early next week does not appear like it will materialize. 

So now off to the not so great news. The weather pattern pretty clearly is poised to take a turn for the worse. We can keep our recent stretch of winter going through Tuesday, February 7th, but model data has moved aggressively toward a wind-driven torch on Wednesday of next week (Feb 8). I would have told you this was a 50/50 outcome this past weekend or even on Monday, but a significant temperature spike of 50-degrees appears more likely as of this update. Fundamentally speaking, its becoming tougher to argue for anything else with the jet stream regime in the Pacific beginning to resemble the "evil empire" look I've come to despise while every other teleconnection index (AO, PNA, NAO) all turn mildly to moderately unfavorable. The spike in temperatures next week appears temporary with closer to normal temperatures returning for late in the week, but the pattern would support additional spikes in temperatures through Valentines Day.  Embedded within this ugly overall trend were some hints of a potential snowfall for the weekend of February 11th and 12th, but temperatures never appear below normal and arctic air appears farther north in Canada than it did when I last updated. This would set up the 2nd full week of February as again being pretty mild with the risk of another substantial temperature spike.

Pattern to finally allow for a short-lived blast of bitterly cold temperatures this Friday into Saturday

A decent area of snow is expected to cover much of southern Quebec and some of this will impact extreme northern Vermont such as Jay Peak on Sunday. Farther south and over the MRV, this event will be mostly a dud with the best frontogenetics remaining to our north. It will turn out warmer than some earlier projections as a lot of northern Vermont will remain on the wrong side of the current clashing temperature regime. It's still cold enough to snow across the high country on Sunday and a sloppy inch or two remains a likely outcome, but the valley floor could actually see some light rainfall out of all this as the day progresses and temperatures are likely to range from the low 30's high up on the mountain to 40 on the valley floor.

Arctic air is expected to seep into northern New England on Monday putting us back on the right side of the temperature clash for the rest of the upcoming week. Additionally, precipitation will become snow and fall sporadically Sunday night into Monday and a period of steadier snow later Monday appears capable of depositing a few inches of snow, mostly for the Tuesday ski day. There are additional waves of energy in this fast flowing jet stream late next week but models have moved to shift the action southward leaving much of Vermont with a drier outlook even though smaller impulses in the now present polar jet stream appear capable of bringing snow showers back to the high country at least once. It will be worth watching how models handle the weather system late Wednesday into Thursday and whether that could blossom into something significant. As of Saturday evening however, data has been moving in the opposite direction and snow late on Monday January 30th may turn out to be the most we see during the upcoming week. 

The outlook does appear colder in the big picture and a big reason for this stems from the evolving outlook Friday into Saturday, February 3rd and 4th. Looks like New England is finally going to get a frontal assault of arctic air, unmodified by the Great Lakes as was the case with the cold outbreak around Christmas. The jet stream impulse responsible for delivering the cold could also deliver a little snowfall. There is no doubt we will be creating some incredible thermals off Lake Champlain once this bitterly cold airmass hits the unfrozen body of water, but in spite of favorable flow, these airmasses tend to be extremely stable in nature and thus greatly reducing the convective snowfall opportunities. The cold will be incoming on Friday and be accompanied by dangerous windchills for a time, especially at the summit areas. I would not be surprised to see actual temps drop to -20 Saturday morning in a few spots though there remains a little uncertainty as to how much of the core of this cold can focus on Vermont or whether the most intense area can get deflected. We should see wind chill temperatures abate on Saturday, but much of the day might be spent below zero on the mountain. Temperatures are expected to quickly modify for Sunday into Monday and by that time, we are looking at our next chance for a potential weather system the the jet stream is expected to remain quite strong and appears to be limiting the opportunity for storms to strengthen along the east coast. 

Beyond Monday, arctic air is expected to retreat some and the pattern is expected to realign focusing storminess and the cold out over the Rocky Mountains. Unlike this past Christmas however, arctic air is expected to remain present over much of eastern Canada and not vanish from the North American continent as it did before the New Year. The pattern does appear to favor another outbreak of mild weather, especially below 40 N latitude and there appears to be a risk of an inland runner around the time of February 8th or 9th, but northern New England will have the ability to avoid a disastrous thaw given the presence of a colder regime in Canada. Ironically, the +NAO which is not helpful for east coast storminess and snowfall can help make a potentially dangerous jet stream flatter and hopefully Vermont colder. Needless to say temperatures have been mild across New England and all of the east coast this January and I feel confident saying that February will turn out substantially colder than February in northern New England. I would not say that confidently further south, below the 40 N aforementioned latitude.

Outlook continues to look wintry through February 6th with chances for additional snowfall dotting the forecast picture throughout that time frame

Great coverage on the hill today, but we had to earn it the hard way. It was a pretty disheartening drive up Rte 17 this morning watching the temperature rise from 30 in the valley to 38 at the base and realize part of the inversion had mixed out allowing for some of that lower mountain slop. The upper mountain skied beautifully all day and was made even better by a healthy dose of back-end upslope snow showers that presided over the northern Green Mountains through much of the day. The above freezing temperatures we experienced this morning might not return again for an extended 10-12 day stretch of time. I have some concerns about the longer range outlook, but the outlook through about February 6th appears generally cold and wintry with a few chances for additional snows and a chance for one short-lived surge of extreme cold though the models have failed to provide any certainty about the latter.

The upcoming weekend doesn't look especially sunny but we can expect some breaks in the overcast for Friday, a seasonable winter day with tolerable winds and temperatures starting in the teens and rising into the 20's. We are a few weeks away from the next full moon, but we should get a starlit night Friday night before clouds return for Saturday along with some light snow. The clipper system is passing way too far north to cause snow of any significance but we could see an inch or so while valley locations warm from the low teens all the way past the freezing mark (mountain should remain below freezing). Models continue to indicate clouds and a decent period of snow during the ski day Sunday. I am a bit worried the best frontogenetics with this overrunning type snowfall are north of us but lets call a 3-5 inch snow possible and at least a 1-3 inch snow likely as of the time of this update. 

This classic La Nina set up will produce the big temperature clash next week with balmy conditions in the southeast United States while cold grips the upper midwest. With the polar jet having returned, more than one waves are indicated to have the potential to evolve into precipitation and snowfall producers for New England though models are having difficulty discerning which of these to key in on. Ensemble data, usually the most reliable source of data in these uncertain environments, is showing the best shot at snow coming Tuesday night into Wednesday. More snowfall is certainly possible though as a larger chunk of arctic air approaches us on Friday. I should point out that a massive buildup of bitterly cold arctic air is expected to build up across much of southeast Canada by the end of the week. We are one good potent disturbance away from receiving at least a chunk of this bitterly cold air sometime between late Thursday, February 2nd and Sunday February 5th. A few of the many runs of the various medium range operational models are bringing a surge of this bitterly cold air into northern New England in this time frame while other indications suggest just a glancing blow. The bitterly cold air, if it hits, won't last more than a few days and some warm advection snowfall is likely as the cold weather abates toward the beginning of the first full week of February. 

This brings us to the undesirable portion of the update. The Pacific jet stream continues to be a problem in this very negative PDO winter and the pattern is indicated to realign itself back toward one favoring storminess in the west and milder conditions in the east. There are some material differences between this pattern and the one producing the atmospheric river of storminess in California and the big retreat of arctic cold in North America earlier this month. In fact, this pattern is nothing like that but there is a clear signal that milder temperatures will strengthen over a large section of the eastern United States while arctic cold remains present southern Canada. The latter feature will hopefully become a critical ally and keep northern Vermont wintry even if mild weather returns to southern New England and points south. It seems like wishful thinking in a winter like this but it has happened many times here especially in February (most recently last year on February 4).

8-14 inches of snow and minimal sleet by late Thursday with relatively forecast picture in place through Feburary 5

Though it's a glancing blow and a weakened airmass, the first real chunk of arctic air is making a charge at Vermont. It's an important airmass and one that that is impacting northern New England only and will ensure a colder storm late Wednesday into Thursday while we get our snow. Snow showers capable of producing a small accumulation can be expected across the high country Tuesday but our eyes are fixed to the approaching storm and its potential snowfall. 

First I want to provide the friendly reminder that I forecast weather where we ski while other very talented weather prognosticators are providing the intel where most of us live. There is a big difference when discussing weather and especially snowfall amounts. Both Mad River Glen and Sugarbush average twice as much as snow as the valley floor in an average winter and almost 3 times as much as the Champlain Valley. The forecasts found in this blog are both foolish and useless in many of the places we call home even though occasionally I will make mention of these specific distinctions. Regarding our upcoming storm, everyone in northern Vermont will see accumulating snowfall but the high country is certainly the spot where the most will fall. Snow will begin within an hour or two of 3 pm Wednesday and our storm total is highly contingent on our ability to front-end thump. Not many places in the world can front-end thump quite like New England and this refers to overrunning type snow that falls when antecedent cold is enveloped by moisture. This said, I've honestly disappointed that our higher resolution short term models are not front-end thumping harder. I mean after all, this is our specialty. Sure, data is indicating a nice 5-8 inches Wednesday evening, but I was hoping to see indications that deep moisture will get pile driven northward into northern Vermont and produce 2-3 inch an hour snowfall rates for a time and a quick foot of snow. The American model continues to show signs of this, but as we get closer to the storm, it is wise to begin weighting the higher resolution data a little more and medium range model data a little less. So, in an effort to be informative I am providing the strict interpretation of the last round of model data while also pointing out that it continues to look like a favorable setup for heavier snowfall, so long as we get the robust development of a new area of low pressure which will begin to establish itself over eastern Pennsylvania Wednesday evening and move toward eastern Maine Thursday. A several hour long dry slot and a brief change to sleet continues to be possible very early Thursday though the layer of warmth over MRG is very minimal (within 1-2 degrees of freezing if that) and the high country is quite capable of enduring that layer without a changeover at all. Back end snow on Thursday afternoon is then expected to provide a fluffier finish to the storm though with the storm rapidly exiting to the unblocked northeast, our window for this is small. Factoring in all of these different variables yields a 8-14 inch forecast for this storm as of Tuesday afternoon with 6-8 falling prior to the ski day Thursday and 2 to as much 6 inches falling beginning late morning Thursday and Thursday evening. Expect to see a break in the precipitation around daybreak Thursday with any precipitation falling as some light sleet or possibly freezing drizzle though I don't think this lasts long enough to be a major issue. 

We are once again grazed with arctic air on Friday in the wake of our storm with temperatures generally in the teens atop our fresh snowcover on Friday though the blustery conditions that will be with us Thursday night should abate. The first Alberta Clipper since I don't know when is then expected to spread clouds and some very light snow into the region on Saturday. This system is simply too far north to provide snowfall of any significance but its passage can bring just enough moisture for an inch or two of accumulation. 

The pattern just has a classic cold La Nina look to it with arctic air dominating much of southern Canada along with portions of the high plains and west but struggling to make in-roads over the mid-atlantic and southeastern United States. Weather systems will progress along the area of this clashing temperature regime and the first of these systems could bring some moisture, falling as snow, to the region on Sunday. An accumulation is certainly possible here on the order of a few inches but a large snowfall is unlikely as any such storm appears both disorganized and fast moving. Arctic air will fight to establish a presence over Vermont during the last two days of January before another potentially more organized storm brings more potential for winter weather. A likely outcome here is snow but one should never underestimate the power of the dark side of La Nina which in this case would be a warm intrusion of air stemming from a storm that decides to track as an inland runner or lake cutter, whatever your favorite terminology might be. 

The period between February 2-5 are setup for some of the coldest weather in this very mild winter season so far. Expect to see some sub-zero readings in this time frame and hopefully we get a system embedded within those days to provide us with some additional snowfall. After about February 6th the southeast ridge appears stronger and more capable of throwing an inland runner at us later in the first full week of February. Some arctic air is indicated to remain present across southern Canada which will be a much needed ally if such an evolution takes place.

Sunday night storm becoming a tough pitch to hit hard, but potential results late Wednesday night into Thursday continue to look promising

The 2nd storm in our trilogy was just beginning to reestablish itself along the Carolina/Virginia coastline Sunday afternoon. Ultimately this low pressure area will become the primary storm while continuing to both intensify and move very quickly off to the northeast. It's not a bad looking storm actually and quite capable of delivering a lot of snowfall to the interior northeast if it had more time to mature before exiting stage right. As the coastal low really starts to crank Sunday night into early Monday it will serve to consolidate much of the precipitation and produce a very narrow corridor of heavy snowfall; which, according to model data falls over portions of the Berkshires, southern Vermont and the Monadnock region of New Hampshire. The MRV isn't totally left out in the cold here and should procure a few inches through midday Monday but if the storm follows the latest data we would be left out of the heavy snow. It's close enough and tight enough that a small northward shift could change the outcome because even 20 miles on Rt 100 could make all the difference. It's just tough to get overly bullish on these types of systems if they track southeast of the Cape,  even just a little bit. With that said, my thinking is 3-6 inches with a chance for a bit more if that magical northward shift were to happen.

Tracking southeast of Cape Cod is certainly not the issue with Wednesday/Thursday event. A storm that continues to appear the most potent of the three and also the coldest of the three even though this area of low pressure is expected to come right at us or just south of us. The weather is not expected to be especially cold out ahead of this storm Tuesday; in fact, we have to issue the "el torchy" advisory since strong south to southwest winds are expected to warm temperatures up to as high as 40 degrees Tuesday afternoon even as clouds and snow showers begin to develop from north to south along the spine of the Green Mountains. As I mentioned Friday, this is an important push of cold air that will slide in just in front of the approaching storm laying the ground work for what appears to be a very nice setup for heavy snow on Wednesday. Model data continues to push the idea of a primary low pressure center moving northeast over Toledo or southern Michigan and then transferring part of or all of its energy toward a developing coastal area of low pressure. I would like to see a nice clean transfer because if we can't keep the primary low pressure area south of us, we risk both a change to sleet and a dry slot. Even with all that, I think the outcome looks pretty darn good with a hefty front end thump of powdery snow Wednesday afternoon and evening, a possible change to some sleet very early Thursday (it's close according to several models) and then some additional terrain enhance snow Thursday. Hopefully we can keep the event all snow but it should be a very positive outcome for the northern mountains regardless with 10 or more inches my initial guess. 

We have some colder weather arriving for Friday though the core of some pretty intense arctic cold is expected to mostly miss New England at least initially. A clipper system (yes they still do exist) will try and bring some of that cold eastward for Sunday and Monday but the clipper appears pretty far north to promise any big additional snowfall. Once this colder La Nina regime settles in though, we are again staged for some intriguing results. We just need to stay on the cold side of what should be an intense clash between mild air over the southeast U.S. and arctic cold to our north. Early indications would suggest this is very attainable leaving us with really good opportunities for more snow as we move toward and into early February. It will be very nice to have some arctic air on our north flank again finally.

Episode 1 reaching a conclusion but two parts remain in this long anticipated snowfall trilogy

 We are approaching the conclusion to episode 1 of what we hope is a 3 part winter storm series. This first storm is certainly nothing spectacular, but this is the event marking winter's return since it continues to appear like a really good stretch of conditions is upon us. We still have particulars to sort through regarding the next two systems but both appear on the table and northern Vermont continues to appear like a favorable location for good results. 

Snow Friday afternoon and evening will allow this event to meet at least the low end of our expectations and I am feeling better about the notion an area of high pressure will be enough to gradually eliminate much of our cloudiness on Saturday. After a blustery start, it will turn into a very nice late January day with near 30 degree temperatures near the MRG base and gradually decreasing winds. In other words, I expect to see those sun deck chairs occupied tomorrow afternoon beers in hand ! We might also be greeted with a bit of sunshine on Sunday, but clouds will quickly overspread northern Vermont as episode 2 in our 3 part series approaches. Sunday will be another comfortable day with teens in the morning and near 30 degree temperatures again expected in the afternoon. 

As of this update, models are approaching a consensus with episode or storm number 2. It's a nice looking but quick moving system that will be intensifying as it speeds along a projected course that would take it over southeast New England. The track of this storm has shifted marginally eastward but not enough to take much of northern Vermont out of what appears to be a narrow zone of decent snowfall. This snowfall should again (much like the storm Thursday evening) begin within an hour or two of 6-7 pm  and fall at a rather steady rate throughout the overnight. So long as we keep the track of this strengthening area of low pressure close to Cape Cod Monday morning, a few hours of heavy snow right around daybreak should bring yet another round of 8-16 to the high country. In this case most of the snow will fall before the ski day Monday with snowfall tapering to flurries by mid-morning. Much like the snow this past Thursday night and Friday, the snow will be a bit damp in the valley locations but drier above 2000 feet where temperatures generally hover in the middle 20's. Limited sunshine later Monday will allow those valley locations to inch above the freezing mark but I expect readings to remain sub-freezing on our mountains not only Monday but much of next week. 

The break in the hard hitting action continues into Tuesday though there is a jet stream disturbance capable of bringing us clouds and snow flurries late in the day. This feature will serve as some importance as it will bring a limited but very critical supply of colder, drier Canadian air to the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Temperatures could fall to 10 degrees early Wednesday and though readings will warm somewhat throughout the day, our midweek storm appears to be a colder one even though the expected track of the storm is farther north. The third and last in this 3 part series continues to appear like the most potent system and for a big MRV result, we need a nice clean low pressure transfer from the southern Great Lakes region to the Atlantic coast.Though the polar jet does appear to be advancing in our direction during the middle part of next week, there does not appear to be a back end PJ kicker capable of over-amplifying the initial midwest low pressure center and preventing the aforementioned coastal transfer. That being said, I remain bullish on our potential results. A recent run of the European model did track the storm over northern New England but there continues to be a nice established consensus in the ensemble data for an excellent track and snowfall for northern Vermont. Again, snow from this would arrive during the day Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night and Thursday. This event is still 5 days away and thus it is important to factor some uncertainty as expectations inherently evolve. 

Friday and into the last full weekend in January continue to show up as potentially arctic, really the first such weekend of 2023 though the overall pattern continues to resemble a classic chilly La Nina set up. This means cold air encompasses much of southern Canada, the upper midwest, and portions of the northern  Rocky Mountains while maintaining a more tenuous grasp on New England in late January and early February. We can expect more action in this setup and more snow but the inland runner is always a risk in any La Nina year and is certainly a possibility in this upcoming weather pattern even with the colder weather.

MRG will make a bid for the trifecta over the next week with snow locked in for Thursday night/Friday and additional chances for signficant snow Monday the 23rd and later next week !

 This will easily go down as the best blog update of 2023. It has been a tough slog across all areas of the northeast since just after the Christmas holiday but things are about to change in a big way. Both life and weather come at you fast in a Vermont winter and it is amazing to think that the 1-3 inches of crust currently covering many of our mountains might, within a week, finally see some deep snow. We've got a Thursday night / Friday snow locked in to the forecast picture but this will be quickly followed by two very potent looking weather systems with one set to impact us Sunday night into Monday and another during the middle of next week. 

 The snow Thursday night into Friday is a very ordinary winter weather event by Vermont standards but especially needed given current snow conditions. Snow will arrive abruptly between 9 pm Thursday to midnight Friday with a rapid 3-5 inch accumulation across the high country during the overnight hours. By daybreak on Friday, the snow will become light but remain persistent, especially above 1,500 feet and this allows the early call of 8-16 inches (4-6 at the start of the ski day) to remain on target for a total accumulation by Friday evening. Temperature profiles actually look a little colder with readings projected to remain in the mid 20's both Thursday night and Friday allowing much of the snow to stay on the dry side. Thursday night's snow will be a little denser but much of Friday's snow appears fluffier since it falls as a result of a more favorable upper air environment combined with oragraphic enhancement. This will not be an especially accurate forecast for the Champlain Valley which appears to be in line for both less snow and wetter snow. The southern Vermont snowfall picture does appear a little better with rain more confined to Massachusetts and Connecticut during this event. Wind direction will be a little problematic for the Single Chair Thursday night into early Friday but winds will abate and become more northeasterly during the day which is considerably gentler on that lift though I am not sure if they plan to open it. 

Temperatures will remain above average both through this upcoming first storm and the weekend. Saturday's weather conditions can be described as blustery with clouds and snow flurries along with a few break of sunshine. Sunday should feature less wind and perhaps a period of sunshine in the morning before clouds from our next system flood the region as the day progresses. Readings should get into the 20's both days and only drop into the teens at night. Across valley locations, I think temperatures will exceed the freezing mark Sunday afternoon. 

I am just loving the evolving consensus for our next system set to bring what appears to be snowfall Sunday night into Monday (Jan23). This is a quick moving storm but one that will rapidly intensify as it interacts with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Coast. As of Wednesday afternoon, all 3 major medium range computer models suggest a storm track that would take this storm up through Connecticut toward the Maine coastline. This is just beautiful ! We don't have a jet stream blocking mechanism in place to inhibit a quick exit, but several hours of significant snowfall and a sizable accumulation are appearing more likely. We are still dealing with a situation where cold air is in short supply, but thankfully, this appears to be a problem for coastal locations and interior Vermont appears to be well situated though changes are still possible. 

The quickly exiting storm on Monday will allow weather conditions to improve rapidly Monday evening and perhaps we can squeeze several hours of sunshine out of Tuesday. Though the pattern will begin to allow arctic air to spill southward across the North American continent, it will remain away from New England through most of next week. This means daytime temperatures should continue to reach the 20's both during Monday's storm and Tuesday into Wednesday and readings should again exceed the freezing mark in valley locations. Meanwhile the third storm in the trifecta appears to be the most dynamic and will be organizing itself and gathering moisture in the Mississippi Delta region. Though this storm appears to be the strongest, there's also a risk that it amplifies too early and take a trajectory somewhere west of optimal. I am happy to report this is not the current trend but it certainly remains a possibility. The current would, at the very least, transfer much of the energy from this storm to the coast and would allow for a third hefty accumulation in the span of a week across northern Vermont. Arctic air does loom beyond this storm but I am hoping the polar jet stays out of this storm's way since it might act as a steroid and turn this promising situation into an inland runner. Right now the storm's impact appears to be next Wednesday January 25th into Thursday January 26th with the polar jet making an entrance into Friday. I would prefer to hold this timing in place given the choice. 

Arctic is of course a net benefit to us in the grand scheme of things and we are looking at a chilly last weekend of January, hopefully one with very deep snow. The pattern overall going into February resembles a more classic La Nina upper air look with an elongated ridge in the jet stream in the eastern Pacific keeping the storminess aimed at western Canada as opposed to California. This set up often prevents arctic air from unloading on the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. but New England and larger portions of both the central and Rocky Mountain west are regions certainly in play for more persistent colder temperatures. It should remain an exciting pattern into early February but a classic La Nina pattern can always manufacture an inland runner even in the best of situations.