Cold with just some light snow potential Sunday but softer cold next week brings with it snowfall potential on 2 occasions

 So the polar vortex will steer clear of the United States this weekend and through much of next week, preferring instead to hang out on the eastern shore of the Hudson Bay, well up into Quebec. This isn't entirely unexpected but it is a slight shift north verses some previous expectations and both the intensity and coverage of the cold in eastern North America appears a little less impressive. All that said, Vermont still appears very cold through much of next week, but with the polar jet forecasted to be a bit further north, at least one decent snowfall possibility is coming into view on Tuesday the 25th. 

Meanwhile, the bluebird weather that dominated Vermont through Thursday afternoon is expected to continue through Friday along with mostly sub-zero temperatures on the mountain. Winds are not expected to be the factor they were late last Friday and into Saturday so from the standpoint of wind chill, it won't feel quite as cold. This is especially the case this Saturday when a healthy dose of sunshine should warm temperatures from 15 below all the way to 15 above with gentle wind speeds. More clouds and some light snow return return for Sunday as arctic is reinforced by late in the day. We have a small window here for some Champlain induced powder Sunday but the incoming airmass is, again, pretty stable by nature and we should expect conditions to dry out quickly with subzero readings and clear blue skies greeting us Monday morning. 

The weather map this coming Tuesday consists of a strong incoming shot of arctic chill and a potent clipper system in the eastern Great Lakes. Add to all this , a small but potentially not so insignificant subtropical feature along the Gulf Coast. With the polar jet backing off some earlier projections, there are several possibilities that emerge with the most probable and most benign being some lighter snows from the clipper system followed by another round of intense cold. The two more exciting scenarios involve the clipper or the subtropical feature going bombs away and depositing more much needed snow on the northeast before exiting. Following a couple of very cold and dry days, there is another chance for a potential east coast event as often happens when the polar jet retreats but arctic cold remains entrenched over eastern North America. 

I've heard some social media talk this week about a sharp warm-up as we move into the month of February. Undoubtedly, there are some changes to the weather pattern stemming from the positive turn of the AO and a retrograding jet stream that will allow western North American ridge to migrate west into the northeast Pacific and Alaska. Temperatures are certainly likely to modify but I am not convinced we are headed toward some torchy gloom for a few reasons. The positive AO turn is significant but not especially strong and a blocking ridge appears to be a long term fixture above the Eurasian continent and above and somewhat aligned with the broad ridging over Alaska. Additionally, the mid-latitude Pacific continues to look pretty favorable and is not exhibiting a tendency that would drive arctic air nearly clean off the North American continent or even into some deep high latitude retreat. The pattern, in fact, should consist of plenty of arctic chill both in the western United States, more broadly in Canada and to a lesser extent, the Great Lakes and New England. The recent stretch of cold has also mitigated if not eliminated some of the warm feedbacks that we were contending with last month. The Hudson Bay is frozen, the Great Lakes have some ice coverage and the coastal Atlantic is not as warm (in a relative sense) as it was earlier in the season.