We've finally settled in to a good groove at Mad River Glen where a couple inches of snow is more routine and less news. That's certainly a good thing but we need this groove to have some lasting power and we would go a long way in doing that were we to lock down a big storm for the upcoming weekend. Our chances for big snow have certainly improved over the past few days but we have not totally gotten this horse into the stable. It's a tenuous situation involving very slow moving subtropical energy and a seemingly benign southeastward moving clipper. The eastward seaboard will be ripe for explosive storm development from the phasing of these two seemingly innocuous weather impulses but phasing such as this can get very chaotic and small errors or changes in the placement or movement of certain players can have a big impact on the game at large.
In the meantime, Vermont will endure another round of intense cold arriving Tuesday night and persisting through much of Thursday. Interestingly, the chill largely failed to meet expectations across more populated areas of the U.S. but has consistently met if not exceeded expectation across interior New England and will help make the month the coldest in several years as mentioned previously. Wednesday remains the coldest day accompanied by blustery winds, Thursday will be the coldest morning with another round of 20 below zero temperatures and the stable nature of the airmass should help ensure some terrific visibility over this period.
The aforementioned clipper will actually spread some light snow back into Vermont on Friday for a time, but as the storm begins to take shape along the Carolina coastline, precipitation will consolidate farther south during the afternoon and evening, at least the precipitation that matters. It has all the makings of a classic "bomb" Friday night, with arctic air, a favorable upper air environment and relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean all working in concert to allow explosive development to occur off the eastern seaboard. Even aggregating the data with the European ensemble mean shows a sub-980 low in the Gulf of Maine by late Saturday. This would put the storm into the category of the Ides of March 2017 event in terms of strength but the impact on northern Vermont will depend heavily on the track. As of now, data would suggest that the storm tracks 100-150 miles east of the Jersey coast and roughly 50 miles east of Cape Cod. This places Vermont on the fringe of the storm and includes several inches but certainly not a foot or more. It also means a shift farther to the east has the potential to shut us out. But with the disclaimer safely out there, I can leave you all with one of my favorite Lord Of The Rings analogies. The ring is always trying to get back to its master - it wants to be found ! The ring being the storm and its master is the coastline where all of that natural organic baroclinicity is always is always calling and is always magnetic. Storm's love to hug the coastline I would not be surprised to see a shift in that direction in the next few days.
It almost goes without saying that Sunday will be very blustery in the wake of the storm. Depending on the track, we could see some lingering snow showers but the pattern remains fast moving and any snow should dissipate quickly and give way to clearing and a few dry weather days on the last day of January (Monday) and the first day of February (Tuesday). After that, we encounter our first real challenge in some time as the ridge/trough pattern reorients and allows milder temperatures to push northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. I've seen some operational model data indicate a full blown multi-day thaw in the February 3rd-4th time frame but i've also seen indications of resistance from residual cold weather in eastern Canada. The latter scenario allows for some overrunning snow from a fairly organized storm system in this time frame followed by mixed precipitation. The warmer scenario would certainly open the door for some rainfall late next week. This February 3rd to February 5th period is the only that looks especially threatening. Beyond the February 5th, colder weather should return and the storm track does favor additional chances for snow.
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