We mitigated our potential thaw and replaced it what appears to be at least a modest snow event late this week

There was some concern in the energy universe that we were heading toward a milder repeat of the disastrous rolling blackout situation in Texas late this week.  This refers to what happened last February in a very amplified weather pattern. It was bad for Texas because of the electricity shortages and bad for us since we underperformed on snowfall and then ended the month with a thaw. The point of all this is to illustrate that an over-amplified pattern with cold in Texas can be a risky situation for Vermont. Fortunately in this case, the pattern has trended flatter which is a great situation for them in terms of keeping the lights on, and a better situation for us, since our thaw appears severely mitigated while our snow prospects appear dramatically better. So lets move on from Saturday and go !

We still have a round of milder weather to concern ourselves with, but I am hopeful that we've reduced the above-freezing window to 24 hours or less. Tuesday is a bluebird day and a comfortable one with temperatures rebounding well into the 20's after cold start. The mild period begins midday Wednesday with temperatures climbing up above the freezing mark thanks to a stiff southerly breeze. Temperatures are likely to remain in the mid or even high 30's through a good part of Wednesday evening and through the overnight. Yes, we could see a bit of light rain very early Thursday but the risk for a snow eating heavy rain has dropped significantly I am very happy to report. 

Now to the fun part of all these forecast changes. That core of that strong arctic cold that some folks thought would cause problems in Texas, will instead work to take the legs out of the warm-up in northern New England. A push of low level cold is expected to arrive early on Thursday sending temperatures back to and eventually below the freezing mark. As this is happening, a wave of low pressure takes shape along the Gulf Coast and moves northeastward, enhancing an area of snow, sleet and freezing rain across the eastern Great Lakes and eventually interior New England. Models have not come to a consensus on where this transitional area of precipitation sets up, but taken in the aggregate, northern Vermont is well positioned to get at least a few inches on Thursday following a bit of light rain and a period of sleet. A recent run of the GFS gave us a few inches of snow Thursday before shunting precipitation to the south while the Euro/Canadian places northern Vermont in a sweet spot for snow beginning Thursday and extending into Friday  (albeit with the turn to snow a little more delayed Thursday). With model output having yet to steady, I would just split the difference here and expect a modest (4-10 inch) but not heavy event. Yes, there's likely a sweet spot here but it is a narrow one and although we deserve this, the heaviest snow could end up north or south of us. 

Snowfall could extend into midday Friday before the weather clears and it turns blustery and cold.  Saturday's temps are likely to hover around zero on the mountain with a modest northwest wind. Sunday starts cold with sub-zero temperatures but calm winds and sunshine will make it a pretty warm 20-degrees by the afternoon. 

Monday concludes what was a cold and somewhat dry month for Vermont. February appears to be a different animal with the core of strongest cold retreating into Quebec and Greenland (+NAO), helped along with the Pacific which looks a little feistier but not entirely angry. We will have the support of a somewhat positive PNA anchored by a ridge that is expected to develop over the eastern Pacific and extend slightly into western North America. The latter feature appears to be the strongest on the hemispheric board and is likely to keep winter alive and well in Vermont for the foreseeable future. The cold should soften after this weekend but we should see additional chances for snowfall after Sunday especially if we resort to a more traditional La Nina setup. Keep in mind that the cold weather has put some significant ice on the Great Lakes which discourages the inland runner and favors snow across interior New England. This is consistent with our snow climatology which often has the best snow in February and March across the mountains of Vermont.