Temperature profiles reveal a rather unique scenario in the Mad River Valley on Sunday. A warm layer aloft is strong enough to allow for a sleet/freezing mixture, but as temperatures gradually warm toward the freezing mark at the surface, that same warm layer will disappear allowing all precipitation to change to snow. So its freezing rain and sleet with temperatures in the 20's during the morning and light snow with temperatures in the 30's during the midday and afternoon hours. With precipitation both light and sporadic, accumulations will also be on the light side and be in the 1-2 inch range but we need all contributions at this point so giddy-up.
More generally, I am excited about this pattern over the next few weeks. We've had to wait a few years, but we finally tamed the Pacific for an extended period and some persistent and steady cold will be the result across New England. If temperatures sneak above the freezing mark in a few areas on Sunday it may be the last time it happens for several weeks in northern Vermont. We got a good burst of cold arriving Monday as a small taste of what is to come. We could use a little more snow to accompany the incoming chilly air but it looks like the lower troposphere will stabilize after maybe an inch or so from snow showers Sunday night. Bluebird weather prevails by late Monday and continues into Tuesday accompanying plenty of sub-zero readings. Temperatures moderate Wednesday afternoon with a chance for some light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.
I whined about the +NAO regime during the last update and maybe that's what it took for some help to arrive. Some weakening in the jet stream in the area south of Greenland next weekend sets up for a potentially interesting scenario where storminess appears stuck out over the coastal Atlantic. Incoming polar energy could very well light the fuse for something but models are understandably inconsistent as to exactly what that something might be. My over/under for snow in the MRV MLK weekend is certainly not set at zero however and would probably range between 5-10 inches. Lets let this simmer for another few days and see what surfaces. The home-run outcome is out there but there are several other lesser outcomes that could also prove productive.
The pattern is aligning beautifully for cold weather in the two weeks following MLK which encompasses most of the rest of January. A weakened jet in the Pacific combined with an elongated ridge stretching from western North America through parts of the arctic should open the pipeline for continuous arctic chill. The storm track will be pushed farther south but water temps in the western Atlantic create an inciting and inviting environment for storms. Lake Champlain is also no where close to freezing which creates steady opportunities for terrain enhanced snow. With that, I will leave you with this Marvin Gaye classic just because...
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