Minimal sleet for MLK storm should get us into the 10-16 range

 Though not a perfect storm for us, another MLK storm will come through with some much needed snow. The track of this very strong storm is less than ideal, basically right over us, but the push of low and mid level warm air, though quite powerful, should fall just short of bringing temperatures up past the freezing mark at critical layers of the atmosphere. Moderate and occasionally heavy snow will begin before dawn Monday and continue into early afternoon before the dry slot gets us. I still think snow can mix with sleet occasionally but this wont be the dominant precipitation type. 

After a several hour lull, we should see terrain enhanced snow envelope the northern Green’s and continue through a good part of Monday night into early Tuesday before conditions dry out and sunshine returns accompanying blustery but tolerable temperatures. Snowfall looks a bit better overall because of the lesser amounts of sleet. Let’s call it 6-10 by early afternoon Monday and then another elevation sensitive 4-6 Monday night into early Tuesday. The 10-16 storm total would certainly be our best of the year ! 

We have more bitterly cold temperatures on the way but those don’t arrive until Thursday. Wednesday should feel downright balmy relative to this past weekend and the approaching arctic front still brings with it the possibility of more snow Wednesday night. Unfortunately it looks like we are in the wrong jet quadrant for this and snow totals by Thursday will be minimal. 

Bitterly cold temperatures follow for late Thursday and continue through the weekend. Coastal New England and the Mid Atlantic have a chance for a storm Saturday and the rest of the area gets their chance Monday the 24th. The Atlantic remains a tinderbox for storms but the polar jet will be potent enough to suppress some activity and also make it difficult for models to fully resolve beyond a few days out. The pattern continues to look good through the rest of January with a very cold period between the 21st to 27th with the arctic pattern softening some thereafter. Enjoy the storm folks, it’s been a long wait !