Welcome back for another beautiful winter weather update. Temperatures are plummeting across the state of Vermont Friday evening and Mother Nature is poised to provide us with one hell of a ride as far as winter weather goes.I have very few changes through about Monday, just a bit more clarity and detail so lets get to it.
Bluebird weather, terrific visibility and 10-25 mph winds (depending on the exposure) accompany the -10 to -20 degree temperatures we are set to experience Saturday. Prepare accordingly and I can't imagine any of this would take skiers by surprise at this point. Winds will subside enough under clear skies to produce what could be the coldest night of the year for many local residence. Expect a few 20 below readings before a few hours of morning sunshine boost temperatures a bit upward.
Snow is expected to arrive for us in the 1-3 pm time slot Sunday. It is one of the coldest storms in over a decade not only for Vermont, but for the multitude of states it is expected impact with snow, sleet and ice. For us, it's all cold, cold snow with temperatures not venturing far from zero degrees late Sunday. We won't be able to match the snow intensity that is likely to occur in states like Massachusetts or Connecticut, instead, we get the longer duration. The northward shift came to life with this storm as the coastal low pressure center that is expected to take shape Sunday and move pretty close to Long Island before exiting to the east on Monday. This is plenty far enough for moisture to extend northward in our direction and the best part relates to the decaying surface feature which will continue depositing fluffy snow over us throughout the ski day on Monday. What a dream !
I am ready to put snowfall totals in that 1-2 foot category. About 2-4 of this appears destined to fall late in the ski day Sunday. Steady snow then continues to fall Sunday night depositing an additional 6-10 inches by first tracks time on Monday. Then we get the bonus ! The decaying original low pressure center which will appear like a slight inverted surface wave will keep the snow flying on Monday even as the rest of the country gets a nice dose of cold sunshine. These features can get interesting and produce localized deformation bands of snow that can make someone very lucky. Though it's hard to pinpoint those, it's easy to see the weather map will produce another 4-8inches of snow and this still could be conservative. Either, the snow consistency will be be fluffy and delicious. Very high likelihood this is the premier day of the season so far so long as you are ok with temperatures close to zero degrees on the mountain and a respectable 15-25 mph wind north wind with higher gusts.
More lighter snowfall is now expected on Tuesday after a respite Monday night. This comes from a clipper system crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures are still expected to be very chilly and perhaps only a few degrees above zero while winds will continue to be a factor. There's a better chance to see sun as the week progresses while temperatures remain bitterly cold. Expect readings in the single numbers on the mountain Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Like many arctic air masses, this one also appears a bit too stable to produce heavy snow showers, though winds are favorable and still could bring lighter snow showers to the mountain on any or all of these days. We will certainly make a run at freezing Lake Champlain for the first time this decade once January concludes. I should point out that we expect winds to continue to bring very low wind chills to the mountain. Conditions will be amazing but dress for 30 below wind chills at least.
Temperatures are expected to moderate slowly on January 31st and February 1st (This being the subsequent weekend) and that trend is expected to continue into early February. There are no indications of a thaw though and several models have been spinning up storms in what remains a somewhat amplified pattern, especially on that weekend I just mentioned. Any time the polar jet is involved, changes in the weather forecast can come quickly. Often times, a big east coast storm can materialize just as the arctic pattern relaxes and this appears to be such a situation. The first full week of February is likely to be wintry with temperatures much closer to normal. This being closer to 20 degrees for a higher and 5-10 for a low.
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