Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Monday, February 19, 2007

NAO turns this week to gold, next week more of a challenge

Some of the disconcerting changes occurring in the west are going to have a large impact the coverage of below normal temperatures in eastern North America which has managed to survive for several consecutive weeks. With the below normal cold relinquishing its grip, we need to stiffen our defenses and come up with a way protect our base if not add to it. As if on queue, the NAO driven by a strengthening ridge over Greenland will help the already negative AO to help turn what could have been a late February thaw into winter wonderland full of powder days and below freezing temperatures. Although I have never been able to alter the weather outcome, I dialed 911 for this one and it felt as if I got a response. As good as it will be this week, trouble looms for early next week and will need more last minute assistance if not a magic act to avoid what looks to be an ice/rain event.

Powder days - We just can't get enough
2005 produced a golden period of skiing beginning in mid-February and lasting through about mid-march but it has been awhile since I remember the stars aligning so favorably for president's week. MRG more or less doubled its seasonal snowfall in the two weeks leading up to the holiday and now we watch as the clipper train nears the station. Two clipper systems this week will ensure at least 2 powder days in the period beginning Tuesday and ending Friday and if were lucky we'll get three. Snow from the first clipper system will arrive early Tuesday morning and will persist through much of the day albeit light. This first system is a weak one but is also a two part series with additional moisture arriving Tuesday night bringing more new snow by first tracks time on Wednesday. Snow from the clipper "hybrid" will be over with during the day Wednesday and any snow Wednesday night into early Thursday will be of the terrain induced variety. Then its the next clipper which will bring a burst of snow Thursday evening into early Friday. This system is more potent dynamically but less so from the standpoint of moisture. It will nonetheless snow, enough to produce another powder day for Friday and thus finishing off one heck of a week for us. Since it is a holiday week with many planning to ski lets have fun with some snowfall predictions. This endeavor requires the "subject to bust" disclaimer but I can limit the damage somewhat by giving a healthy range.

New Snowfall....
By first tracks Tuesday 1-3 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Wednesday 3-6 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Thursday 1-3 (flurries during the day)
By first tracks Friday 4-7 (an additional 1-3 during the day).

This adds up to 12-28 inches over a 4 day period. Thank you NAO !!!

The upcoming weekend looks especially dry in fact with temperatures running at or slightly below normal. Normal temperatures during the last weekend of February are in the middle 20's on the mountain and low temperatures are near 10. If ice or rain is our fate for early next week, it might be a good time to get out make those turns in the woods before we get that hard crust.

I'll have the full update on next week later today. Enjoy the powder.




No comments: