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Monday, February 26, 2007

Some good news to report for early March

The update for the March 2nd to March 5th period is a positive (mostly) one I am happy to report. This will be the second in a succession of juicy systems to exit the Rockies in a 5-day period. Model guidance has hinted in both cases that warmer air in the troposphere's middle layers will change precipitation to the dreaded icy mixture, particularly freezing rain. In the first case, the system weakened and passed way to the south and we will be lucky if we squeeze out a few terrain induced inches Tuesday and Wednesday. I will take dry weather over ice any day however and we have now successfully kept the rain and ice away from MRG for 41 consecutive days dating back to the MLK day where snow changed to sleet and freezing rain for a few hours before ending. This next system is also poised to trigger a huge northward push of mid-level warmth into the region Friday threatening to end the streak. The situation however looks far better than it did a few days ago.

March 2nd - 5th details
Like its predecessor as this storm pushes east through the Midwest, a second low pressure area will try and intensify very quickly off the Atlantic Coast and act to thwart some of mid-level warming across interior New England. In this case the task will prove to be a bit more difficult unfortunately since this system will track farther north effectively bringing both the moisture and some of the warmer temperatures at the surface and aloft to Stark Mountain and MRG. It is a very close call at this time and the outcome could go either way. At this time it looks as if precipitation would develop Thursday Night into Friday morning as snow then change to a mixture of mostly sleet and perhaps some freezing rain. The American Model would suggest a better outcome with more snow and less ice out of this initial batch of precipitation. The European however has taken the American to the cleaners all winter in the 3-5 day period and is suggesting a warmer less snow more ice outcome out of Friday's precipitation. I am not sure what to think about the disagreement, I know its a critical one but we will have to iron out these differences on Wednesday with a subsequent update. There is some good news in that even the worst case scenario does not include a lot of freezing rain. The real good news is that some of the good dynamics associated with this fairly intense system will settle near the region during the weekend and for a good part of the first full week in March. This could very well mean some hefty terrain induce snow amounts beginning on Saturday and persisting through Tuesday March 6th. In summary, whether sleet/freezing rain falls at MRG or no on Friday, the next week appears very promising as far as skiing goes.

Nothing new in the longer range
I have nothing new to report as far as the longer range is concerned. Indications are that much of the country will see spring-like temperatures in a week to ten days. Across interior New England, it will be a mix of warmer than average and colder than average temperatures.

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