I suppose it was very foolish of me to stray from the philosophy which worked so well during the winter of 06-07. There was a disagreement on how the weather would play out this week and the European model said this and the American model said that and in light of some of the recent struggles which plagued the European model through the summer and fall I was baited into fading its reliability during the winter. I like my crow served with cranberry sauce thank you ! Actually I would prefer my crow served with about 2 feet of snow and there and things are in the works to make that a reality if you can believe it.
The European had the right idea all along. It had the right idea Sunday and had the right idea Monday when I issued the last update and now the other model guidance is in the process of jumping on the bandwagon. Wasn't it somewhere that I heard that all the cool people show up late to the party ?? Perhaps that only applies to America and not Europe. Actually us weathergeeks are often joked on for rarely getting invited to the party at all though we can still be fun and festive company, like Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Twister who was great as a tornado-chasing weather weenie in a movie full of bad science.
Thursday event fizzles to a few inches by Friday morning
Thursday's system was a disjointed one to begin and because it is a fast moving, it never had huge potential. As it turns out, the two pieces that were suppose to make up this weather system will never fully align. One storm, containing the bulk of the moisture will move quickly out of the Tennessee Valley early Thursday and be south of Long Island by the evening, too far south for any real impact on MRG. The other is a rather potent Alberta Clipper which marks the leading edge of a re-enforcing shot of cold air which will trail the aforementioned moisture-rich system to the south. Most of central and northern Vermont can expect snow from this trailing system but mainly late on Thursday or Thursday night. The dynamics from the clipper will induce snow showers and snow squalls Friday. Accumulations should be considerably lower than what was advertised in the last update, probably in the 2-6 inch range between Thursday night and Friday.
Sunday contains the real potential
The jet stream will form a nice confluence area over the Canadian Maritimes providing interior New England with a chilly day Saturday including high temperatures which struggle to get past 10 on the mountain although the winds will be relatively calm. This confluence area is a key ingredient for what is to follow on Sunday as a major weather system approaches from the southwest. It is rather incredible actually to look at the upper air and surface maps and see so many things which are strikingly similar to Valentines Day 2007, a day which probably should be memorialized at MRG. In truth, it is dangerous for a prognosticator to make such analogies 4 days from the event and some key details are likely to change over the course of the next few days. With that said, there is very good agreement concerning a big noreaster this weekend, one which will provide the coast with a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and ice and one which will deal interior New England and much of northern New York a sizable snow event (and wind) or one that can be measured in feet. I don't want to get carried away here because it is early and hype as a tendency to fizzle. Another update in a day or two can probably zoom in on the details a little closer and we can go to work from there.
The 20th or the 21st continues to be the date of a potential pattern change with two of the three teleconnection indices turning against us. The most dominant feature according to all indications will be a big trough in the northeast Pacific Ocean and over British Columbia. The snow cover which could be fairly deep by then could mitigate any warm-up for a time. Hopefully we can also avoid any X-Mas rain drops.