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Saturday, December 15, 2007

Winter Storm Forecast: Fine Tuned

There are a few important items requiring clarification regarding our upcoming winter storm. First of all, the start time which was advertised in the blog as 8 am needs to be pushed up to 5 am (give or take a few hours). This obviously means that snow accumulations for first tracks time on Sunday which was indicated to an inch or less may turn out to be 2 or 3 inches. Between 8 am and noon we could see some snowfall rates of 2 inches an hour meaning that snow accumulations by early afternoon could approach 10 inches

It will be around the early afternoon when the much talked about winter storm will begin transitioning much of its energy from the original low pressure center which at that time will be over eastern Pennsylvania to what will ultimately be the Maine coast. This time of transition will be the "warm" period of the storm when the critical above freezing layer reaches central and even northern Vermont. The change to sleet at MRG will occur between 12 and 2 pm and will last around 6 hours. It is possible even that precipitation subsides for a time and we get a "lull" within the storm. As the storm "bombs" on the Maine coast Sunday evening, precipitation will go back to snow and it could again get quite heavy before tapering off Sunday night or Monday morning. I am sticking by the total accumulation numbers of 15-30 inches although my feeling is the 6 hours of sleet hurts our chances of getting much over 2 feet.

1 comment:

Peter said...

mrg lifts on windhold as of 2:30 at their site. what's the latest josh? still 6hrs ahead of the dreaded "s" word? keep up the good work. think snow.

pete