Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Friday's storm system and some early details on next week

The National Weather Service is not quite doing justice to the specifics of Friday's system in my humble opinion. The forecast says snow followed by snow and sleet Friday evening and a total of 3-7 inches. Drilling deeper into the bank of information available yields better details and they are as follows. Any precipitation at MRG that falls before 2 PM or prior to the ending of the ski day will be in the form of snow. Models suggest that precipitation will fail to arrive until around noon so the window of time for snow on Friday is brief. This obviously means that the earlier arrival of precipitation favors more snow at MRG. Once we get to 2PM, precipitation changes to a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Model cross sections are showing a layer of warmth that is simply too deep to support any snow after around 2 PM and thus the NWS forecast is somewhat misleading. Temperatures may eventually climb to above freezing levels at the surface briefly Saturday morning but should fall back to freezing or slightly below by mid-morning. Along with the slight drop in temperatures comes the return of snowfall which will be of the more wet variety at the base of MRG and more powdery at the summit. Accumulations will be light and amount to anywhere from a trace to a few inches.

New snow is likely for Tuesday morning but Wednesday looks like a wash

Temperatures will be colder on Sunday and a weak disturbance will encourage the continuation of flurries and even a few snow showers. Accumulations from this could amount to another inch or so but I am not expecting anything significant. As it turns out, it could be Tuesday which turns into the steal of the week as a storm system exits the Rockies in two pieces. The second and stronger piece is nothing but bad news as it will bring a huge push of mild weather and ultimately some rain on Wednesday. The first system however arrives late on Monday and brings some moisture into the cold weather which will be temporarily entrenched over Vermont. The result is the possibility for a prolonged period of light snow beginning late Monday and persisting into early Tuesday. It may indeed be enough to turn Tuesday into a powder day (3-6 inch variety) at least initially. Tuesday will remain cloudy and this will help keep temperatures below freezing for a time but the mild air will make its northward push into Vermont Tuesday night setting the stage for a Wednesday washout.

Weekend of the 9th and 10th appears more promising

In spite of all the sleet, freezing rain and rain, there is some good news for the weekend of the 9th and 10th. Both ensembles show strong indications of a temporary east coast trough amplification. Too early for details but I place my bets on colder weather and some new snow to go along with it. A subsequent update will give us the chance to go into more details regarding the situation next weekend. Until then, wear your goggles because the sleet is not friendly on the face.

1 comment:

KingM said...

Thanks for the update. In spite of the very challenging atmospheric conditions, we've only had one bad week since the first of December, with a few hiccups that were easily overcome. We've really been quite lucky so far.