Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

MRG is always super but this year so are my Giants !!!

I am one inspired weathergeek after watching my beloved New York Giants prevail in such adverse conditions at Green Bay over the weekend. I got a bit excited Sunday night and was not in good shape to do a weather update and thus it was delayed by a day. I know that many of the Mad River faithful pledge an allegiance to either the Pats or the Giants and in the case of 2008 the two will square off in what should be a great match up (and rematch) and one I am very much looking forward to. Tom Brady has haunted me since his days at Michigan and is poised to do so again but I believe this Giant team has too much moxie to go quietly into the Arizona night so I expect a good game.

Recommendation of the week: Wednesday is a winner
And now back to the weather. There is a rather well-defined area of snow across the Midwest as of Tuesday morning in association with a weak area of low pressure in the Great Lakes. This area of precipitation will push eastward and reach interior New England but not until Tuesday night. We won't see heavy amounts of snow by first tracks time Wednesday but atmospheric cross sections Wednesday reveal instability up to almost 8,000 feet into the atmosphere throughout much of the day after the passage of this system. This isn't enough for epic TIS snowfall but enough I think for periodic snow showers of an accumulating variety. This means Wednesday is a powderey sort of day and worth a trip to MRG even if your house is bright and sunny Wednesday morning. In terms of numbers I expect a few inches (2 or 3) by first tracks time Wednesday and 2-5 inches depending on elevation during the day on Wednesday.

Snow flurries and snow showers may even continue into Wednesday night before conditions in the lower atmosphere stabilize Thursday thanks largely to the return of arctic air (although very light snow may continue through Thursday). Temperatures on the mountain Thursday will be stuck near 10 and this will be accompanied by wind. Friday's temps will struggle to reach the teens and some flurries are again possible in the morning.

Weekend breakdown
New snow is very unlikely Friday night into Saturday though comfortable temps and good visibility should make for a decent morning. By the afternoon clouds will thicken and there is a very good chance for some snow. Models are in divided camps regarding thsi system but the trusty European model suggests this to be a clipper turned coastal event which means new snow late Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Even the most optimistic forecast would have limit snowfall accumulations to 6 inches or less but I am an optimistic forecaster (maybe its the NY Giants in the superbowl) and I like our prospects for first tracks powder on Sunday.

Next and into February
I am not overflowing with optimism next week unfortunately. The next high latitude block in the jet stream will form (albeit briefly) over the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. This means the position of the mean trough will shift west as will the arctic air next week. A push of milder temperatures is therefore likely next week and although there are no indications of an outbreak of record warmth, the next system in the middle of the week has 50/50 chance of bringing precipitation other than snow to the mountain. The end of the week marks the beginning of the month of February and the indication based on the ensembles is that we are back to the pattern of late December featuring the active Pacific Jet and inconsistent results for MRG. This pattern did bring us the few days surrouding New Years which was fantastic but a February without rain (as was the case last year) appears unlikely. We will just have to pick our spots carefully.

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