This update will act as the teaser. I have been away for a few days and have returned home to find a lot of potential in the coming week accompanied by the uncertainty which is piled higher than usual. In short, I want to see another round of model runs before unleashing any risky proclamations.
Much of the juice with this system tomorrow is south and east of Vermont but not all of it. Snow should commence prior to lift opening and continue at a fairly consistent rate throughout the day. A reasonable guess is for 4-8 inches during the day and then another 1-3 prior to lift opening Tuesday.
The Friday Situation
So on Thursday night into Friday we have arctic air plunging into the United States, a rapidly amplifying jet stream, a clipper passing north of the Great Lakes and a developing storm system along the Atlantic Coast. Mix it together correctly and big things could be the result by first tracks time on Friday morning. The European Model, or the model of choice this winter suggests that the Atlantic Coast storm tracks well inland as it heads northward thus bringing warm air northward and potentially wrecking what could be a good situation. Guidance from both the American and Canadian model indicates much greater things. I will take the fifth for the time being and wait for another round of upper air data and model runs before unleashing an opinion. At the SCWB we do like to lay out the possibilities though and expand beyond the "50 percent chance of snow" which is the current NWS indication.
The end of the month also contains some very encouraging news. There is more blocking over Alaska, more arctic air over the U.S. and a few chances for significant snow. More on all that tomorrow as well.