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Sunday, March 23, 2008

Our "big event" is way out to sea but we still are good for at least one powder day this week

And now that we finally have some support from our teleconnection indices, the east coast is seeing its most widespread outbreak of cold air since the middle of January. As it turned out, MRG didn't actually need this support but we nonetheless had to live on the edge with every storm and snowfall totals for the nothern part of the state this season were much greater than the southern part. As for the system early in the week, no part of the state is going to come out on the winning end of that one. The axis of the upper air support is simply too far east and changes in the pattern across the northwest part of the nation are going to force any storm on the playing field to continue moving east rather than north. The Greenland Block (-NAO) which was an important factor in the powder we received on Thursday and Friday is actually expected to weaken early this week but return in a weaker state next weekend. This would mean that winter is not quite finished with us yet.

The Powder Day - Wednesday is your best shot
More instability flurries and even a few snow showers are still possible Sunday and Monday although accumulations will be minimal if any and there will be intervals of sunshine through it all. On Tuesday we should see any morning sun give way to an overcast sky as a clipper system moves quickly through the Great Lakes. This system, as far as clippers go, actually does have some moisture and will begin depositing it on the mountain Tuesday evening in the form of snow. The pattern will continue to be progressive through the mid-part of the week meaning that the system will say good-bye almost before it says hello. The storm will however leave a pocket of instability in its wake and snow should continue for at least half the day on Wednesday. Between the 3-5 inches that falls Tuesday night and the additional 2-4 which is possible during the day on Wednesday, it seems that Wednesday is our winner as far the choice of ski days is concerned.

Next Weekend
There is yet another more significant storm or even a series of storms on the weather map late this week and into the weekend. The weather map actually has a very familiar look to it as the set-up appears oh so similar to the many systems which have impacted Vermont this winter. An amplifying trough in the west, a tight north-south gradient of temperatures in the east and a storm which could either track over southern New England and deliver us some snow or across the St Lawrence Valley which would thus yield a much less appetizing result. One encouraging aspect is the NAO which will be in the process of moving back into negative territory at this time and may help push this storm to the south. At this time, it does appear as if clouds and a period of snow is likely during the day Friday; thereafter, we could see a wide range of outcomes depending on the eventual track of the system). By Sunday, a return to colder weather is likely which would include the chance for TIS snow showers.

Early April continues to look on the chilly side of normal, at least until April 3rd or 4th. MRG's grand finale was April 7th and 8th last year and there are no spring thaw's on the horizon that would prevent the season from extending at least that far this year.


matt said...

The only reason that MRG closed last season was to commence work on the single, correct? I'm hoping with a bit of cold air, this season could go into baseball season. I want to watch games in the basebox!

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