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Saturday, January 10, 2009

2-4 inches by Sunday morning, more snow Tuesday

The model guidance declared a truce as of Saturday morning and it appears although we miss out on the dream scenario we won't get shut out either. Light snow should fall throughout much of Sunday morning and amount to a few inches before tapering off and giving way to another frigid although not unbearable afternoon and evening. There is still a chance that our "bc bomber" will track a bit farther north and such a scenario would yield a better result in terms of skiable powder. Indications are though that the higher snowfall totals will be in southern Vermont and across the Berkshires of Massachusetts.

Tuesday's clipper
A somewhat chilly but relatively calm and dry day follows for Monday and this will set the stage for an interesting Tuesday. The overall pattern is preparing itself for a serious amplification with a very well defined ridge across the western U.S. and a trough across the east capable of bringing bone chilling cold into a widespread area of the eastern United States. There is a strong clipper system marking the approach of this freeze and ahead of this clipper we should see some southerly winds, relatively moderate temps and some snowfall. 4-8 inches of snowfall, in fact on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This clipper eventually becomes a "Newfie Annihilator" as it bombs in the Canadian Maritimes. Much of this moisture will be too far to the east but it will have the the effect of producing -50 degree wind chills Wednesday morning. If you are brave enough to face those ugly facts then some squeaky powder will be your reward on Wednesday but Tuesday may prove to be a bit more comfortable even if there is less new snow.

Extreme cold through at least Jan 18, less extreme cold and more natural snow in the 6 days that follow
The "extreme" period of this cold regime will be a 3-4 day period beginning Wednesday and persisting through Friday or Saturday. This extreme freeze is aligning itself rather nicely with the coldest climatological period on the calendar so temperatures will be quite unforgiving falling into the -20 to -25 range in a few places and failing to climb above zero on at least one day and probably two. Moisture will also be hard to come by and any snowfall will be on the light side through the 18th. A temperature moderation is indicated for the week beginning January 19th but the overall ridge west/trough east is indicated to continue through January 25th. Along with the slight moderation in temps by January 19th will also come more chances for significant snow as systems from the Canadian provinces grace the region with a bit more frequency.

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