Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Saturday, December 26, 2009

March 2001, Valentines Day 2007 and New Years 2010 ?

And what might might all those dates have in common. For the purposes of pleasing the karma gods I will leave the answer blank. Plenty of uncertainty remains and plenty of time for the potential to unravel but the potential exists and for something big to occur it needs to start with "potential".

Rain and ice has indeed made it to northern and central Vermont and has thus humbled this prognosticator who a not more than two weeks ago declared that such a thing would not happen for the duration of 2009. This storm has obliterated portions of the northern plains with snow and wind but is hardly impressing any of us skiing enthusiasts since it lacks both moisture and cold air and we will gladly tell it to not let the door hit it on the way out. Its "out" will allow a pool of deep instability to move over the state of Vermont and this will allow snow showers to become heavy in the afternoon on Monday. The snow will continue in some earnestness overnight Monday and Tuesday should turn into the best day to ski although a cold and blustery one as arctic air resumes its grip on MRG. Snow accumulations Monday and Monday night will be hard to predict but this is a good set up for terrain enhancement and 6-10 inches of fluff is certainly realistic prior to first tracks time Tuesday. For those wondering about Monday, temperatures will be below freezing for much of the day but I don't expect snows to accumulate until the afternoon.

Snow showers will taper to flurries Tuesday but temperatures will struggle past 10 and will fall to below zero levels by Wednesday morning. Both Wednesday and Thursday should be mostly dry with the exception of a few flurries Wednesday. Winds should diminish and the cold will diminish to some extent Thursday as temperatures climb into the 20's. The storm on new years rides on the ability of the juicy southern branch of the jet phasing with the vigorous amplification of an eastern United States trough. This trough will ultimately bring cold air deep into the south as 2010 begins. Models are having a difficult time with the southern branch moisture as usual but both the European model released late on the 26th and the American GFS model released early on the 27th (GMT) show a phasing and a "bombing" south of Long Island. In addition, the deepening trough across the eastern part of the country and blocking downstream across Greenland will allow the storm to move slowly if it can successfully form. The potential thus has me very excited and referencing historic and similar type storms such as February 1969 and March 2001. Are search for the right ingredients is over its just a matter of getting the right proportions and watch things explode. Its not a done deal yet but worthy of our attention.

I should add before signing off that the timing of snow is still up in the air somewhat. Snow should it happen would arrive New Years day and potentially continue for a few days or not happen at all. Lets wait a day or two and re-assess.


Jonathan said...

Bless you, Josh Fox, for bringing a smile to my face on a miserably wet day. My birthday, no less.

The great thing about weather, kind of like baseball, is that there's always next year. Or later this week. Or even the day after tomorrow.

Jonathan Weker

More Cowbells said...

hate to count my chickens just yet but I think the next couple weeks may be obscene. I have that special feeling that it is high time to get my powder boards mounted finally.

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