Thanks now to the most recent run of the European model which is back on board with the more aggressive retrogression late on Saturday and early on Sunday. This was the critical piece of information that was missing and I can now be more affirmative with a 2-3 foot storm total forecast. The forecast covers a large expanse of time starting New Years Day and ending Tuesday of next week. Yes, Tuesday which means snow from this storm could be falling for 5 successive days.
I was a little scarce on details in my last update and since I am a little more certain of details I figured it would be time to disclose them before i celebrate the incoming decade. Snow on New Years day should be on the light side and should fall as a result of the decaying clipper energy. As the coastal low bombs east of Cape Cod we should see some enhancement in the precipitation shield Friday night into early Saturday but the storm will be well to our east and snowfall rates should as a result be gentle. Saturday's first tracks should see a few inches of new snow but my guess is less than 6 but the snow will continue to fall and as Saturday progresses, the storm will make this long talked about westward wobble or "retrogression". Such a motion to a storm defies the basic laws of mid-latitude "gravity" and it takes a powerful surge of upper air support to accomplish such. And yet, we expect it and as this happens late on Saturday the snow will intensify and become modest by Saturday night into early Sunday. NWS forecasts for the area would seem to downplay the event. I am not calling them out or calling them wrong but since the storm will ultimately occlude it will be sensitive to terrain and snowfall totals in the valley areas should be substantially less than the high country. At MRG, we could see an additional foot by "first tracks" time and another 6-12 by Monday followed by additional snows Tuesday. Epic indeed !!
Happy New Year to the MRG community. Happy New Decade. Think, think think snow. What a great way to finish one decade and start a new one !!