Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Friday, December 11, 2009

Pattern delivers an early MRG opening !

The oragraphically enhanced snow that was missing for a good part of last year has arrived early and brought the kind of fluff that can provide those "soundless" turns. Its one of the best feelings one can have and I live for those early powder turns and there should be a good amount of that as MRG officially kicks off the season. Some additonal powder can be expected through Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere undergoes a very gradual stabilization. I would not be surprised to see an additional 5-10 inches prior to the 10 AM commencement ceremonies. Saturday will continue to be blustery and cold with temperatures in the single digits and teens. Sunday will turn into a nice one, with some early sunshine afternoon clouds, light winds and afternoon temperatures which climb to the freezing mark.

Why not continue to rave about the upcoming few weeks since the eastern ski resorts and Mad River Glen in particular can certainly salivate over what appears to be one of the best weather patterns one can hope for as far as good December skiing is concerned. We have seen plenty of inconsistency in December, a month which can deliver plenty of cold but plenty of rain. Such will not be the case this December. A furious blocking pattern has emerged, sending the North Atlantic Oscillation plummating deep into the negative category. I am trying to remember if I ever remember the index itself at -3 and it may approach that in the next 10 days or so. The oscillation itself is indirectly driven by massive block in the Jet Stream over Greenland that is expected to extend across much of high latitude North America or the Nunavut region of Canada. After a brief reprieve the cold weather early next week, temperatures will plummet on Wednesday and will remain slightly below normal through the Christmas holiday.

As far as specifics on storms or new snow, there is not much on the immediate horizon as far as major snows. Some wet snow is possible Monday (the one time frame where temperatures may warm to above freezing. Additional snows are then possible Tuesday into Wednesday in association with the incoming arctic air. This system has a slight chance exploding off the Atlantic coast and providing more than the 2-5 inches that I might guess would fall at the moment. A clipper system late in the week could then bring another light accumulation of snow before which should be a chilly weekend before Christmas.

Big storms, the ones which are really good for SCWB ratings are unlikely until Christmas week but the pattern is certainly capable of producing such an event between the 20th and 25th of the month. Considering how "blocked" the pattern has become, major weather systems will find some resistance as they proceed up the Atlantic Coast (if one becomes organized enough to do that). It will thus ultimately be a question of whether the pattern allows for a major weather event to track far enough north for major snows. I would guess though that we get at least one major event before the new year. The pattern will turn ripe for it and we should be ready and have our ski's tuned up for the occasion !!

1 comment:

TQ said...

NAO less than or equal to -3 is a rare event. Only twice...spanning five days since 1950 and never during winter.

7/13/1962: -3.004
7/14/1962: -3.095
10/20/2002: -3.048
10/21/2002: -3.254
10/22/2002: -3.022