As flurries continue across the high country of Vermont another in a long list of southern branch storms is poised to make a run up the Atlantic Coast. The storm will be embraced by the expansive east coast trough currently in place and will move from the panhandle of Florida Tuesday to somewhere east of Cape Hatteras by Wednesday. From there its track is expected to continue in an east of north trajectory and this will make it difficult for its moisture to reach much of interior New England. Areas that will see snow from this will be areas that have already seen record snow during the winter season. The track of the storm will be a bit too far east and thus snowfall across the bigger cities may avoid the record books but it will be nonetheless snow that MRG will mostly avoid. Both Wednesday and Thursday will feature temperatures in the 20's and snow flurries but nothing of real merit aside from a flurry inch or two.
Thereafter, a more tranquil stretch of weather should settle into the region. Healthy amounts of sunshine and the high March sun angle will also allow temperatures to warm considerably and we may get a few days of spring conditions before the next shot of cold arrives sometime next week although there is still some disagreement about this. The warm up results from some structural changes in the ridging and blocking across Canada. The ridging had shifted back into western Canada and had thus allowed the PNA to turn positive but over the next 5 days, the blocking will shift into eastern Canada and will extend south into New England. A real spring thaw consisting of 50-degree temperatures is possible but the warmer of possible scenarios. The European has suggested 1 or 2 days of garden variety warmth followed by a turn to colder weather during the middle of the week. This return to colder weather would mark our next chance for snow but this will have to be clarified in a later update since it is a bit early for details.
The middle of March weather pattern appears somewhat familiar. A ridge or a block across central Canada will likely keep arctic air from spilling into the U.S. in large quantities and will also suppress the southern branch energy which has already been suppressed for much of the year. This set-up thus threatens to allow for a relatively dry middle of March but we will continue to keep an eye on it.
And lastly, a congratulations need to go out to the Canadians and the hockey team that represents them. In one of the most thrilling games I have ever watched, Canada prevailed in a extra period and won the gold medal in spite of a very gritty effort from the United States. It was a great moment for the great sport of hockey and it might be wise to remind the less than stellar NHL commissioner, Gary Bettman of this before the next round of Olympics when NHL players might again be playing in meaningless regular season hockey as opposed to representing their countries.