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Sunday, March 14, 2010

Quiet weather to encompass region in the wake of the departing storm

Consistent with March traditions the weather has gone from very quiet to very stormy and will again go back to quiet. It has been a weekend of wind swept gails which have not only impacted many east coast locations but also the beloved single chair at MRG which is ashame but it yet again proves nothing is as effective at closing the single as the wicked east wind.

The duration of this storm will feature snow at high elevations and rain in valley locations. With little available cold air this is a system that is ever so sensitive to elevation and the threshold elevation for snow as opposed to rain will lower late Sunday into early Monday. This will allow the mountain to pick up a few inches of snow although the "powdery" stuff will be confined to the upper half of the mountain. All precipitation will be over with by the middle of the morning Monday and clouds may give way to a bit of sun. Monday should be the only real blustery day but temperatures should still creep above the freezing mark across most of the mountain.

The only disturbance of note for the upcoming week will pass well to our south west and this will set the state for a dry and "quiet" week as I mentioned above. Temperatures will climb to above freezing levels every day of the week and in most cases get well into the 40's. We should see an additional surge in temperatures Friday afternoon setting the stage for a very mild and spring-like weekend on the 20the and 21st of March. The push of warmth is a direct result of surge of upper level energy which will dive into the eastern Rockies late in the week. A weather producing system will develop as a result of all this along with an accopanying push of colder weather. Until this system reaches MRG, it will remain mild and the storm is not expected to impact Vermont until early in the week of March 22nd.

The NAO will remain negative but the effect of this teleconnection will be mitigated by blocing across western Alaska. This will allow cold and unsettled weather to focus itself in the Rockies while cold an unsettled weather although not totally absent from Vermont will transition through the region only to give way to milder temperatures. This is more or less what I expect March 22nd and beyond. Rain followed by some colder weather and perhaps a bit of snow followed again by a quick return to milder weather. I don't think unsettled weather of any sort will "persist" across the region until very late in the month or in April.