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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Most of the rain stays south of MRG this weekend...

and this news would be the best we have received this week. In the end the middle of March will be very much on the tranquil side much like the European Ensemble predicted it would more than a week ago. After a calm Friday with clouds and some sunshine, temperatures will graze the freezing mark Friday night but should quickly rise into the 40's Saturday as easterly winds usher in milder temperatures. Clouds should thicken Saturday but the rain should hold off and remain well to our south. The rain and wind will in fact be quite a problem further south as low pressure along the eastern seaboard intensifies but the weather at MRG will be on the quieter side and the snow should remain soft thanks to a solid day of above freezing temperatures.

Sunday could turn out very similar to Saturday but models continue to show moisture gradually encompassing more of interior New England and ultimately bring a brief period of rain to the mountain during the day Sunday. Sunday will turn out to be the cloudier day and a solid night of above freezing temperatures should precede the ski day so the snow should remain soft. Temperatures should remain rather steady during the day Sunday either in the high 30's or low 40's depending on elevation. Overall rainfall amounts now appear to be in between a quarter and a half an inch. This is far less than I would have expected a few days ago and represents the key change in the weekend forecast and a good one as far as the telefest weekend activities are concerned. Rain should also be a middle to late day phenomenon and persist into at least part of Sunday night.

The other change of not involves much of next week. The forecast has warmed significantly in this time frame and the forecast of a "below normal temperature bias" appears to be not a good one. It should nonetheless remain dry however and this will allow temperatures to fall back to below freezing levels Monday night following some rain early in the day. Day time temperatures between Tuesday and Friday should have little trouble eclipsing the freezing mark. The week will start out on the blustery side thanks to the intense east coast storm but gradually winds should subside and the afternoons will be very comfortable for all outdoor activities. The shift in expectations was a fairly large one fundamentally. Although some evidence exists of blocking at some key high latitude locations, the focus of unsettled weather will shift into the west by late next week and this will allow temperatures to remain on the mild side through the weekend of the March 21st. We should see some cold weather return thereafter but by that point much of the support from our teleconnection indices will be lost and I am skeptical weather we can produce a weather pattern capable of delivering even a week of winter weather late in March. It perhaps may wait until April.

1 comment:

Jim said...

Wow, so we're already looking forward to April for the next storm?! Weird mojo this winter.