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Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Cold pattern to bring continuous chances for new snow

The 2nd of two clipper systems this week will cause a big amplification in the jet stream and some excitement for big storm potential. The threat caused a big stir Monday as models took a decisive trend toward another New England bomb Friday and Saturday. Since that time, the consensus of data indicates that the chances for a major storm have diminished but the chances for fresh powder remain. Two jet impulses will be on the weather map this Friday and Saturday. The first will dive southeast out of the eastern Great Lakes and cause an area of snow to enhance across much of New York state, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern New England as it interacts with the warmer Atlantic Ocean waters. The second impulse takes a similar route and we had hoped this would prove to be a necessary injection of energy to allow this system to explode as many do across New England. This second impulse will help amplify the trough further but is unlikely to phase with the initial system. The amplication will allow the initial system to get hung up across the Gulf of Maine and ultimately allow its moisture to envelop the high country of both Vermont and New Hampshire by Saturday. Snow should fall at varying rates Friday night through Sunday and could eventually amount to a foot of fresh powder by late Sunday.

Another system we are watching in the early to middle part of next week will track out of the southern Rockies, tap significant amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico and head northeast from there. The longwave trough axis is actually in a favorable position for this system to actually become a major snow producer for both the eastern Great Lakes and interior New England but models have remained very skiddish on this event and the European has consistently stated its a no go. This will be a period, like many in January, where the polar jet rises to significant prominance across the United States. Such occurances in the past have depressed the storm track and at times even inhibited storm development. Time will tell if this happens in this case but I think this is what the European is hinting at.

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