Perhaps the SCWB should downplay every storm in hopes of increasing the chances for snow at MRG because it hasn't been the first time a storm was almost entirely written off only to deliver the goods. It certainly justifies a discussion on every passing storm, even the misses, because in spite of the advances in numerical weather prediction, mother nature never stops throwing curve balls. The two-pronged system mentioned in the last post will wreck some serious havoc as it passes into the southern plains. One piece will move into the southeast and cause icing problems across Georgia and the Carolinas Monday, while the other causes moderate to heavy snow across a broad area of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. The storms disorganized look has certainly kept the skeptics and cynics in business. This surface low in the southeast was expected to move innocently out over the Atlantic leaving the second piece of energy to get torn to pieces by what appeared to be the prevailing influence of the polar jet. Perhaps its influence will not be so prevailing however as the plains low pressure area is now indicated to hold its own and ultimately catch the Atlantic Coast low. It will be a faced paced evolution leaving little time for the storm to become anything historic, but the system will nonetheless strengthen south of Long Island and an area of snow should be allowed to progress north and cover most of the state of Vermont Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now lets keep expectations in the 5-10 inch category, but a stronger storm with a track farther to the north is capable of delivering even more.
On the back of this aforementioned good news is a promising forecast for the weekend. The pattern will be undergoing some changes and the initial results appear to be quite good. Floods in California and cold weather across the southeast have many weather guru's wondering about the influence of the La Nina this year. Indeed it has actually weakened somewhat, barely maintaining its "moderate" stature. This being said, the pattern by next weekend will begin to take on a more classic La Nina look, consisting of cold weather across central and western Canada, drier weather in California and a sharper north to south temperature gradient across eastern third of the country. This should mean weather in our neighborhood and this should include two fast moving systems, the first of which should deliver some snow Saturday the 15th with another possible snow event early next week. Some very intense arctic air will also be on the playing field although its impact should mostly be felt across Canada states immediately bordering Canada across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
The bad news is relegated to the distant future where ensembles show a trend toward milder temperatures beginning around the 20th of the month. The actual weather that verifies in this time frame remains to be seen but a negative PNA and a nearly neutral AO will certainly chip away at our favorability index.