Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Fresh powder within reach as new blocking pattern emerges

The return to colder weather is not bringing any immediate relief as conditions remain relatively stable. A weak clipper system will approach the region late on Tuesday and bring our first chance for powder. This disturbance might have had more of a chance to be a bigger powder producer but as it passes the region Tuesday night, its energy will get sucked into a storm offshore. Nonetheless, a period of light snow is likely and 3-6 inches between Tuesday night and Wednesday is certainly very welcome. The clipper will also re-enforce the return to colder temperatures as readings will likely fall into the single numbers Wednesday night.

The news gets even better late in the week. It is another clipper system but a far more potent one which may ultimately gather some Atlantic Moisture and turn into a big snow event for parts of Maine. This storm is far from a "lock" at this point but it has 6-12 inch potential Friday as it moves out of the eastern Great Lakes and approaches the Atlantic Coast. This storm, like its predecessor will also allow a re-enforcing shot of cold air to invade for the weekend but the pool of instability in the wake of this system appears a little better and some terrain induced powder could remain on the menu through Saturday. We still have some time for this set-up to fall apart but the ingredients appear right for the 8th and 9th to be a fresh powder weekend. We still have a ways to go to get bases up to ideal levels but it would be a start.

As discussed in the previous few posts, the pattern is evolving into much of what we saw in December. A big eastern Canadian block, and a giant ridge in the Bering sea. The two features will again allow cold weather to prevail across a large percentage of the the eastern United States. The persistence of the "blocking" is quite astounding in a strong La Nina year such as this and although its outcome might not be powdery perfection, we can and have done far far worse. This morning there were some indications that the Bering Sea ridge will take the drivers seat by January 10th and shift the focus of the cold in to the Plains and eastern Rockies. If the pattern were to get overly amplified in such a set-up it could set the stage for another brief thaw between the 12th and 15th of the month. If the pattern stays a little flatter we could get a big weather system out of the whole deal and some additional snow leading into the MLK weekend. Overall I am encouraged and am optimistic about the next two weeks in spite of any concerns.

1 comment:

Yvonne said...

Here's to your weather forecast optimism! Hope is a good thing!

Yvonne Hite