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Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Tough headwinds continue to lay ahead

A amplified pattern energized by the current La Nina will continue to have the mountain playing defense. We did manage to fight off one non-snow event rather well this past Monday and a light dusting of snow Wednesday with some much below normal temperatures to follow for Thursday will keep winter on the front page for now. We may even squeeze a decent ski day out of Saturday as overrunning precipitation well out in advance of next disconcerting weather system brings some snow to the region. The snow Saturday morning could accumulate a few inches prior to first tracks time although we may have to iron out the details in a later post.

The muscle with this next system will be meandering across center of the nation Friday but unfortunately, the persistent upper trough in the west will get a major re-enforcing thrust of jet energy and will consequently allow for the southeast ridge to get a big boost. Mild air will flood the region and is likely going to do it at the low and mid levels of the atmosphere Sunday allowing for a period of rain following some possible ice Saturday night. As time progresses this storm will get stretched out a bit as it tries to break down the above-mentioned ridge. If it does so efficiently we may see rain change to a period of accumulating snow late Sunday into Monday.

We can expect a day or two of colder weather during the early part of next week but another similar looking system will look to take a similar track during the middle of next week. This system has a slightly better chance of delivering winter weather but the chances for an all snow event in a pattern such as this is low and I would expect some additional ice or a period of rain.

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