We are in the midst of a very lousy upper air jet stream pattern. We paid for it Monday with mild temperatures and rain. We will likely pay for it again next week. Friday however remains a close call and the upcoming weekend will mark an interruption from the prevailing theme of the week. Models have had a very difficult time with Friday's system and the forecast has remained in an invariable state of flux for a few days. It looks as of now as if we will get an organized weather system fueled by Gulf moisture arriving Thursday night. There is almost no available cold air in the vicinity thanks to a dominant upper ridge positioned across eastern Canada. There is a little support coming from a polar-pacific impulse. It will dive underneath the Canadian ridge and attempt to inject a little bit of chill along with guiding the storm south of the St Lawrence Valley. It may not be enough in the end but its a close call. Precipitation will begin in the pre-dawn hours Friday and persist through a good part of the day. My guess right now is for an event consisting of sleet, freezing rain and some rain but it is close and a small change could improve the forecast. Areas north of Smuggs stand a better chance of getting some snow out of this system.
The weekend does mark a break from the madness of the mild air. We should get albeit temporary but significant east coast trough amplification. The result will be more seasonable and even below normal temperatures but it should also mean snow showers later in the day Saturday into Saturday night. The best chance for a powder day would be Sunday. I woudn't expect epic snow but a few inches is certainly possible.
The cold weather will persist through Monday but we will again see the reemergence of a dominant upper ridge that spans all of eastern North America. The coupling of Pacific energy and trough over Alaska and the ridging in the mid-latitude Pacific is just killing us. It is causing Pacific air to run the country over and in this case it will trigger record warmth across parts of the east coast and quite possible interior New England by the middle of next week.
Fortunately the winter thaw does appear to have an end on the horizon. By about the time of Super Bowl weekend there is evidence of a loosening of the Jet in the Pacific and a re-positioning of the ridge over North America farther west. This will allow the PNA index to go from highly unfavorable to favorable while the North Atlantic oscillation remains slightly favorable with slight evidence of blocking over Greenland. I know it hurts but keep the faith, we still have time to save the Presidents day holiday and beyond.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, we have a Giants vs Pats rematch which I am sure many loyal MRG skiers against one another. It was a game for the ages last time and I fully expect another one this go around. What I will never forget about 2008 however was the incredible rally we got in the weather in the week that followed Super Bowl 42. It looked for all the world that we would get 2 days of rain 40 degree temperatures. Suddenly, the Giants upset the Pats and just as dramatically the weather forecast shifted. Arctic air fought its way into interior New England and a train of low pressure systems delivered MRG like 30 inches of powder in 3 days.
Yeah its a reach but I am feeling around for some karma !!