Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Nice stretch of winter starts around February 3rd

Rain on top of the freezing rain/sleet on top of a few inches of snow is the process by which concrete is made, or at least that is how I learned it. The 3-inch concrete slab is not exactly ideal when its plastered on top of 40 inches of powder. We don't have 40 inches of powder though so the concrete slab could be the start of the long road back.

Wintry weather should return for the weekend although temperatures will remain on the mild side Saturday. As mentioned in the last update, an eastern North American trough amplification will interrupt the mild pattern for a few days and embedded within this trough are two impulses capable of delivering the mountains some snow. The first rotates through the Great Lakes Saturday and spreads snow showers in the Green Mountains Saturday night. This particular weather feature is probably good for a 1-3 inch dust up but it will drop temperatures back into the 20's for Sunday (from the 30's Saturday). The second feature looks like a more traditional Alberta Clipper. It will bring some snow to MRG Sunday night setting the stage for a chilly but semi-powdery Monday. The system Sunday night has the look of a 2-4 inch event but this could change in the days ahead

I am certainly more encouraged about the way things may play out next week. Arctic chill will be able to maintain its footing through Tuesday morning before milder temperatures make another northward charge. I had advertised the possibility or record warmth a few days ago. That appears a little less likely now but more importantly the recent run of the European model showed the overall mild pattern more or less collapsing on itself late next week under the weight of what could prove to be an intriguing weather feature. I do feel fairly confident overall that ultimately, we will see some critical loosening of the Pacific Jet and a reversal of the PNA by Super Bowl weekend. How fast these changes manifest themselves into some tangible powdery goodness remains a question. There are hints that things could get very interesting along the east coast in the period between the 2nd and 5th of Feb. We have yet to see any real consistency but whispers of an east coast "bomb" began and I hope we can turn this into some real talk.

At the very least however, we should be able to look forward to an exciting 7-10 day stretch of weather beginning around the time of February 3. The PNA will be very supportive and will be coupled with at least some weak high latitude blocking either over Greenland or over the Arctic regions.


Zach said...

Please drop the "bomb" on the 3rd and save my ski vacation!

Jahey said...

Fingers crossed for a "bomb" !!!

Gauss said...


Perhaps, while we're slogging through one more week of misery and deprivation, you can forego your usual content and write a blog entry about all the superstitions, myths, popular lore and utterly non-scientific methods we can use to bring on an early February miracle. Chants, dances, incantations--anything. It couldn't hurt; and the actual weather for the next several days is hardly worth mentioning.