During the last update I had actually tried to reign in my excitement over what I thought could be an epic three weeks on the single beginning in early February. It was a very enthusiastic but non-specific update a few days ago. At that time models had indicated upwards of 4 significant snow events in a 10-12 day stretch. Within a day of that update, models had eliminated almost all of it and indicated a weather pattern not nearly as productive. I try really hard not to get overly theological regarding the "kiss of death" and then something like that happens and suggests that perhaps I would be better served blogging about the inevitable "doom and gloom" of this winter.
Is it really that bad ? No. We still only expect one "thaw" day Wednesday before temperatures turn colder but we lost the shot at a storm late in the week. Much of that energy will get held back in the western plains and that is where some of our problems begin. The failure of that system to phase with some of the incoming polar energy this weekend creates a disjointed jet stream rather than a clearly amplified pattern. When the western plains storm finally ejects itself into the Midwest, it will get shunted southward by a polar jet that will have already played its hand.
Overall though the pattern will be highly "blocked" for the next two weeks. The ridge across western North American will develop as advertised and allow a continuous throng of cold shots into New England to keep it wintry (although models have backed off on the intensity of the cold). Snow-wise however we are probably a week or so away from a potential powder producer. The weekend should stay mainly high, dry and seasonable. Not a bad one to be outside but at this point I would expect little or no fresh powder. By the middle of next week we should have a clipper that could yield some of the good stuff. This will be followed by a surge of colder temperatures and potentially a more organized storm system prior to the weekend of the 9th and 10th.
Still a relatively good stretch of weather, but I want more and am not happy with the way things are trending.