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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Good news comes in 3's

Good news regarding recent accumulation totals across northern Vermont and more good news regarding powder prospects this weekend and even more good news regarding the pattern going forward. Terrain induced snow showers and flurries continue through a good part of Thursday and if we are lucky, we can squeeze out a few fluffy inches over the high elevations. Friday is our dry day and one of the more comfortable days of the month with good visibility, calm winds and temperatures near 30 during the afternoon.

The storm in question will be one of the bigger snow producers over Kansas this year Wednesday and Thursday. As this particular low pressure center tracks east, it will actually weaken and as such, had us east coast powder hounds concerned of a fizzle. It is critical that as is initial storm decays, coastal redevelopment commences prior to the weekend and that is exactly what the last two to three cycle of model runs have suggested. Furthermore, the coastal low is indicated to track close enough to the New England so that the snow shield overspreads much of Vermont late Saturday into Saturday night. This remains a somewhat fluid situation especially since a small shift in the track or intensity of the coastal low could impact snow accumulations. For now I am conservatively hoping for another 6 inches prior to Sunday morning.

Much of next week will be at least slightly on the milder side of what we consider normal. The early part the week appears dry, the middle to end of the week could be "an all of the above". It looks like a monster of a storm could get pretty wrapped up across the middle of the country, occlude and spin its way toward the Atlantic Coast. As this is occurring, we should see an conveyor of warm temperature wrap itself into New England allowing for some non-frozen precipitation. As the storm proceeds to the coast however, we could see more in the way of snow. By the weekend and early March, colder temperatures and a colder overall pattern will settle over eastern North America. In spite of the potential for a bit of mid week rain, we could see additional powder late next week and even more in the first week of March.

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