Lots going on and lots more is expected to happen in the
coming week and lots of people have plans to be at the mountain in the coming
days I am sure. ”Bombogenesis – The Sequel” will indeed happen and although it will
not mean another 1-2 feet of snow for the mountain, I expect we get some Saturday.
The catalyst is another very potent upper air impulse and a much weaker surface
feature. By Saturday morning however, the dynamics in the atmosphere are such
that even an initially weaker storm will see explosive development south of
Long Island, ultimately deepening again to sub-980 mb northeast of Cape Cod.
The track of this system is too far east for big snow across much of VT
although much of eastern Mass and all of eastern Maine will get a big taste
Saturday night. The explosive development of
this storm will allow for the precipitation shield to expand west into
Vermont however, at least the section capable of producing an extended period
of lighter snows. Northwest flow later Saturday will also encourage some
terrain enhancement and I would expect a few inches Saturday and Saturday
evening.
The door will then swing open for a sneak attack of arctic
cold and interior New England will get the brunt of this airmass. Sunday will
be a blustery day with more snow flurries. Temperatures will start in the teens
but end up in the single digits later in the day. Monday morning, Presidents
Day, will feature less wind and better
visibility but readings will be below zero in the morning and struggle into the
teens later in the day.
Our next storm system is looking better and better as far as
snow is concerned. This is a warm advection type of event with a front marking
the division between arctic and pacific air. The frontogentics in these types
of situations can be quite productive for snow and I expect this to bet the
case with this very garden variety system on Tuesday. Snow should begin late
Monday night or early Tuesday morning and persist though a good chunk of the
ski day. I am feeling pretty good about several additional inches.
Beyond Tuesday lies lots of Pacific air and the milder
temperatures. Readings should inch above
the freezing mark Wednesday but I expect 2 days in the 40’s and 1 in the 50’s
at the very least between Thursday Feb 20 and Sunday the 23rd. There
is likely a rain event of some sort looming in this horizon as well. The warm
weather keep the snow soft in that time frame but to keep the snow soft at the
end of February we will need some more help. There are signs beyond the 23rd
that another positive PNA regime emerges with intrusions of arctic cold that
should keep the mountain sub-freezing through the last week of the month and
perhaps into early March as well.
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