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Friday, February 14, 2014

Bombogenesis II and some additional snow likely for Tuesday

Lots going on and lots more is expected to happen in the coming week and lots of people have plans to be at the mountain in the coming days I am sure. ”Bombogenesis – The Sequel” will indeed happen and although it will not mean another 1-2 feet of snow for the mountain, I expect we get some Saturday. The catalyst is another very potent upper air impulse and a much weaker surface feature. By Saturday morning however, the dynamics in the atmosphere are such that even an initially weaker storm will see explosive development south of Long Island, ultimately deepening again to sub-980 mb northeast of Cape Cod. The track of this system is too far east for big snow across much of VT although much of eastern Mass and all of eastern Maine will get a big taste Saturday night. The explosive development of  this storm will allow for the precipitation shield to expand west into Vermont however, at least the section capable of producing an extended period of lighter snows. Northwest flow later Saturday will also encourage some terrain enhancement and I would expect a few inches Saturday and Saturday evening. 

The door will then swing open for a sneak attack of arctic cold and interior New England will get the brunt of this airmass. Sunday will be a blustery day with more snow flurries. Temperatures will start in the teens but end up in the single digits later in the day. Monday morning, Presidents Day, will feature less wind  and better visibility but readings will be below zero in the morning and struggle into the teens later in the day. 

Our next storm system is looking better and better as far as snow is concerned. This is a warm advection type of event with a front marking the division between arctic and pacific air. The frontogentics in these types of situations can be quite productive for snow and I expect this to bet the case with this very garden variety system on Tuesday. Snow should begin late Monday night or early Tuesday morning and persist though a good chunk of the ski day. I am feeling pretty good about several additional inches. 

Beyond Tuesday lies lots of Pacific air and the milder temperatures.  Readings should inch above the freezing mark Wednesday but I expect 2 days in the 40’s and 1 in the 50’s at the very least between Thursday Feb 20 and Sunday the 23rd. There is likely a rain event of some sort looming in this horizon as well. The warm weather keep the snow soft in that time frame but to keep the snow soft at the end of February we will need some more help. There are signs beyond the 23rd that another positive PNA regime emerges with intrusions of arctic cold that should keep the mountain sub-freezing through the last week of the month and perhaps into early March as well.

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